As the Eagles get ready to kick off their season, it’s fair to wonder which players are really going to stand out this year.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few player prop bets from Bovada. For each, I’ll pick the over or under.
This starts with the starting QB who won’t start Week 1.
Carson Wentz passing yards: 3,800
Obviously, projecting any of Wentz’s stats right now is really tough because we don’t know when he’s going to play. But I’ll give it a go anyway. In 13 games last season, he threw for 3,296 yards, but in 16 games as a rookie, he threw for 3,782 yards. If he were starting Week 1, I’d have no problem picking the over, but I’m skeptical right now. I’m thinking he’ll miss more than one week. He didn’t get close after playing 13 games at an MVP level last season.
Prediction: Under
Touchdown passes: 27
NFL
Again, hard to know without knowing when Wentz will be back, but let’s figure he plays around 13 or 14 games this season. He played 13 last year and set a franchise record with 33 touchdowns. That was a pace of just over 2.5 per game. To get to 28 touchdown passes in 13 games, he’d need to throw just 2.15 touchdown pass per game. I think that’s doable.
Prediction: Over
Interceptions: 10.5
In his rookie season, Wentz threw 14 interceptions in 16 games, but threw just seven in 13 games last year. It’s a big reason his season was so great. While coming off an injury might affect his yards and touchdowns, I don’t think it’ll make him a bad decision-maker.
Prediction: Under
Jay Ajayi rushing yards: 950
While Ajayi had 873 yards rushing last season, it’s unfair to look at his stats from Miami, so we’ll just focus on what he did in Philly. He had 408 yards in seven games, an average of around 58 yards per game. That’s not great, but he did average 5.8 yards per carry. It was just that he was still splitting reps with LeGarrette Blount, who is gone now. I’m projecting this one on Ajayi’s staying healthy. It’s a big contract year for him; I think he’s going to have a nice season.
Prediction: Over
Rushing/receiving touchdowns: 6.5
This one might seem like a slam dunk. It seems like Ajayi ought to be able to find the end zone seven times, but even in his Pro Bowl year in 2016, he had just eight touchdowns. I think the Eagles have so many weapons in the red zone and I think Corey Clement will vulture some touchdowns.
Prediction: Under
Mike Wallace receiving yards: 600
I know some people are worried about Wallace after he didn’t do much this preseason, but I’m not. I know he’s 32, but he’s going to have plenty of opportunity. He’s played nine years in the league and just one of them has ended with less than 600 yards. I still think he’s a nice upgrade over Torrey Smith.
Prediction: Over
Receiving touchdowns: 3.5
Wallace isn’t a big touchdown guy. He’s had just 10 over the last three seasons. Even in 2016, when he had over 1,000 yards, he had just four touchdowns. Again, I think the Eagles have a lot of options in the red zone, so if Wallace gets four touchdowns they’ll have to come on long balls. It’s possible but …
Prediction: Under
Nelson Agholor receiving yards: 750
Agholor finished with 768 yards last season, so it’s a fair over/under. But I think he smashes it. I’m expecting a big year from No. 13.
Prediction: Over
Receiving touchdowns: 5
Ditto above.
Prediction: Over
Zach Ertz receiving yards: 850
As much as everyone loved Trey Burton and Brent Celek, I think Dallas Goedert is going to take away some of Ertz’s yards. I know Goedert is a rookie, but he seems ready to play a role and Ertz is going to warrant a lot of attention. I think Ertz finishes between 800 and 850 yards.
Prediction: Under
Receiving touchdowns: 6.5
Again, I think Ertz has another really good, Pro Bowl-type year, but that’s a lot of touchdowns for a guy who has only passed that mark once in his career. But … I think he has seven or eight.
Prediction: Over
Fletcher Cox total sacks: 6
Cox had a tremendous year in 2017 but had just 5.5 sacks. He said his new goal is to become Defensive Player of the Year and that’s not going to happen if he doesn’t get more sacks. Even without Tim Jernigan next to him, I think Haloti Ngata will draw enough attention to let Cox run wild.
Prediction: Over
Michael Bennett total sacks: 7
In his last season in Seattle, Bennett had 8.5, but I’m worried about his workload in Philly. Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett are starting ahead of him and I think Bennett is going to get a ton of work inside this season. That’s not optimal for sacks.
Prediction: Under
Brandon Graham total sacks: 7
Graham is sort of the flip side of Bennett. While Bennett is going to be inside more, that will mean Graham gets more time to play at defensive end. He’s going to get his first double-digit sack season.
Prediction: Over