Eagles

Brady's SB flaw, Pederson's staff, and more in Roob's observations

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Brady's SB flaw, Pederson's staff, and more in Roob's observations

A shocking lack of big Super Bowl plays by Tom Brady, Big V's resurgence, Doug's Pederson’s coaching staff vs. Andy Reid’s and one of the most mind-blowing Nick Foles stats you'll ever see.

It's all right here in Wednesday's edition of Roob's 10 random Eagles Super Bowl observations!

Only 11 more to go before kickoff!

1. The Eagles’ ability to virtually eliminate big plays by opposing offenses has been huge in their surge to the Super Bowl. The first four games of the season, the Eagles allowed eight plays of 35 yards or more. In 14 games since, they’ve allowed five, including just one in their last four games and none in the playoffs. They’re the only team in the playoffs that hasn’t allowed at least one 35-yard play. With the coverage the Eagles are getting from the corners and the pressure they’re getting up front, it’s just going to be very tough to put together a big play against this defense.  

2. Which brings us to this: Brady has thrown 309 passes in his seven Super Bowls, completing 207 of them, but he has only one career Super Bowl completion of 35 yards or more. That was a 52-yarder to Deion Branch against the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII in Houston. His next-longest Super Bowl completion is a 33-yarder to Daniel Graham in the same game. And those are his only career Super Bowl completions of 30 yards. That's fascinating to me. Donovan McNabb in his one Super Bowl had more 35-yard completions (two) than Brady has in seven. Heck, Antwaan Randle El has just as many, and he was a wide receiver who threw one pass. Interesting. I don't know how many 75-yard drives you're going to manage against this Eagles defense without at least one chunk play. If the Patriots stay true to their Super Bowl history and Brady focuses on high-percentage, low-yardage plays, I think that's good news for the Eagles' defense.

3. If you re-watch the Vikings game again, keep an eye on Jalen Mills. We haven't talked about him much this week, but he was money Sunday night. He allowed just two completions for 15 yards — seven- and eight-yarders to Stefon Diggs in the second quarter. Other than that, he gave up nothing. This kid has come so far. Gotta root for a seventh-round pick who wasn't even supposed to make an NFL roster, who never backs down from any player or any situation.

4. Someone asked Malcolm Jenkins Wednesday who the most fun one or two guys on the team are, and Jenkins' answer was honest and moving and really sheds some light into just what makes this team tick: "There’s not one or two guys. Everybody by nature just enjoys being around here, enjoys each other, has a good time, and nobody’s asking them to change that. We understand that this season in the NFL is a grind and we put a lot of work in here, a lot of hours, so when we get the opportunity to play or spend time with each other outside this building, we’re going to have fun. We’re going to enjoy our time together. Because the fact of the matter is that at the end of the season, this team will never be the same. No team in the NFL will ever be the same. So in this finite moment that we have, we’re going to enjoy it.”

5. After his first couple games, a lot of fans out there decided Halapoulivaati Vaitai can't play. After the Raiders and Cowboys games, I got too many tweets to count suggesting that Nate Sudfeld should start against the Falcons because Foles was struggling so badly. Remember Patrick Robinson's summer? Fans wanted him cut before training camp was halfway over. Now all three are key guys on a Super Bowl team. I hope people remember this next time a guy is struggling: Players can and do get better. They grow more comfortable in the scheme. They improve their technique working with position coaches. Their confidence grows. They learn what it takes to be a pro. Sometimes something just clicks and you never know how long it's going to take. It's hard to be patient sometimes, but there are very few NFL players who are stars or even finished products right away. Just keep that in mind next time you're about to tweet to me that some rookie "CAN'T PLAY." Maybe not. But in a year or two? In a week or a month? He just may be starting on a Super Bowl team.

6. Which leads me to this: Vaitai played extremely well Sunday (see story). Did not allow a single pressure. Like Mills, another second-year pro who's come a remarkably long way. It was Big V's best game as pro.

7. We always talk about how important turnover ratio is, and it always is. But it’s magnified in the Super Bowl. The Eagles were able to beat the Falcons two weeks ago despite being minus-two, but that was the Falcons. In the Super Bowl, you're almost never going to get away with that. Consider this: Teams that are plus-one or better in turnover differential are 33-7 in Super Bowl history. Pretty strong odds.

8. Reid's original coaching staff included Jim Johnson, John Harbaugh, Brad Childress, Leslie Frazier, Pat Shurmur, Ron Rivera, Sean McDermott, Rod Dowhower, Juan Castillo and Steve Spagnuolo. And you can really make a case that Pederson's original coaching staff is every darn bit as good.

9. Somebody asked me this week how mad Carson Wentz must be that he's missing out on playing in a Super Bowl. But you know what? I don't think there's a jealous or envious bone in the dude's body. Knowing Wentz, I'll bet he's just happy for Foles and his other teammates. He's the ultimate team guy, and I'll bet he'll be just as happy if the Eagles win it without him as he would be if they won it with him.

10. Mind-blowing Foles Stat of the Day: Foles had four completions of 36 yards or more in the span of 11 passes spanning the second and third quarters Sunday. That's more than he had in his previous 361 pass attempts in parts of 17 games over three seasons for three teams (three).

Based on history, look for Eagles to draft a lineman first again

Based on history, look for Eagles to draft a lineman first again

Since 1991, the Eagles have had 25 first-round draft picks.

Three receivers. Two quarterbacks. One cornerback.

And 19 linemen.

This is Howie Roseman’s philosophy. It’s Joe Douglas’s philosophy. It was Andy Reid and Tom Heckert’s philosophy and, even before Big Red got here, it was Tom Modrak’s philosophy.

Build up the lines first.

And nobody has done it more than the Eagles.

Since 1991, the Eagles have drafted more linemen in the first round than any other team.

They’ve taken 11 defensive linemen — tied for most in the league during the last 28 drafts — and they’ve taken eight offensive linemen, third-most behind the Seahawks and Lions.

The most combined linemen?

19 … Eagles [8 OL, 11 DL]
17 … 49ers [6 OL, 11 DL]
16 … Rams [6 OL, 10 DL]
14 … Seahawks [9 OL, 5 DL]
14 … Lions [9 OL, 5 DL]
14 … Saints [6 OL, 8 DL]
13 … Patriots [6 OL, 7 DL]
13 … Cardinals [6 OL, 7 DL]
12 … Jets [2 OL, 10 DL]
12 … Buccaneers [3 OL, 9 DL]
12 … Vikings [8 OL, 4 DL]

The only non-linemen the Eagles have taken in the first round since 1991?

Quarterbacks Donovan McNabb in 19991 and Carson Wentz in 2016, both with the No. 2 pick. Receivers Freddie Mitchell in 2001, Jeremy Maclin in 2009 and Nelson Agholor in 2015. And cornerback Lito Sheppard in 2002.

And you know what? There’s a good chance they’ll take another one this year at No. 25.

Much of the rest of the league has adopted the Andy Reid philosophy to build up the lines first and then fill in the blanks.

Most mocks drafts have 17 to 19 linemen going in the first round this year — more than half.

During Roseman’s years as general manager — 2010 through 2018, minus 2015 — the Eagles have taken four defensive linemen (Brandon Graham, Marcus Smith, Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett), two offensive linemen (Danny Watkins, Lane Johnson) and Wentz.

With picks in the first half of the draft?

The only non-linemen since 1989 are McNabb and Wentz.

You’re always a product of the people you’re around, and just growing up in this environment and this system and where coach Reid was and someone that really put a huge emphasis on that, it was something that stuck," Roseman said. "We won a lot of games with that philosophy. We try to study what other teams are doing, what successful teams are doing, and you see, it’s important obviously to build along the lines and sometimes you say that, but you have to reflect it also with your actions.

Roseman first joined the Eagles in 2000 as a salary cap intern, so he was around Reid from Corey Simon through Cox.

And Douglas, Roseman’s No. 1 adviser and the Eagles’ vice president of player personnel, shares his philosophy to build from the inside out:

Joe and I, when we started talking about building teams, it was quickly apparent that we believe in the same things. Now, that doesn’t mean there aren’t disagreements on certain players, that doesn’t mean there are other things that we kind of see differently because of his background and how he was raised in this business, but that adds to it.

The first round of this draft is jam-packed with talented defensive, and there are some very good o-line prospects as well.

The Eagles don’t generally draft for need, but of their five projected 2019 offensive line starters and four projected d-line starters, only Isaac Seumalo will be under 29 when OTAs start next month.

So you can hope for a receiver, a running back or a cornerback. Based on what we know about Howie? Based on recent history? Based on what just may make the most sense?

It’ll be a lineman. Again.

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Eagles open as big favorites over Washington in Week 1

Eagles open as big favorites over Washington in Week 1

If you quickly thought “W” when you saw the Eagles were hosting Washington at the Linc to open up the 2019 regular season, you’re not the only one. 

The Eagles opened up as eight-point favorites on FanDuel. That’s pretty consistent with other sports books too. I’ve also seen them at 8 1/2. 

That eight-point spread is the biggest of Week 1 in the NFL, but that shouldn’t be too surprising. Maybe if Washington trades for Josh Rosen, that changes. Maybe if they draft a quarterback in the first round, that changes. But for now? That seems about right. 

Washington fell apart last year, but the Eagles beat them 28-13 in Week 13 and 24-0 in Week 17. In the last two seasons, the Eagles are 4-0 against the Skins and have beaten them by an average of 15 1/2 points per game. If that continues, they'll cover easily. 

Elsewhere in NFL Week 1, the Seahawks are 7 1/2-point favorites over the Bengals, the Cowboys are 7 1/2-point favorites over the Giants and the Saints are 7 1/2-point favorites over the Texans. Those three favorites are also at home. 

Taking a quick look at FanDuel’s futures odds, the Eagles are tied for the seventh-longest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1,600. That means if you bet $100, you’d win $1,600. 

Here are current Super Bowl odds: 

Patriots: +700
Chiefs: +800
Saints: +850
Rams: +900
Browns: +1400
Chargers: +1400
Bears: +1600
Colts: +1600
Eagles: +1600
Packers: +1800
Vikings: +2000
Steelers: +2000
Cowboys: +2300
Falcons: +2600
Texans: +2800
Seahawks: +2900
49ers: +3000
Jaguars: +3300
Ravens: +3400
Panthers: +5000
Titans: +5000
Raiders: +5500
Broncos: +6000
Giants: +6000
Jets: +6000
Buccaneers: +6000
Bills: +8000
Lions: +8000
Redskins: +8000
Bengals: +10000
Cardinals: +11000
Dolphins: +12000

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