Flyers

Predicting Ivan Provorov's contract with Flyers

Predicting Ivan Provorov's contract with Flyers

Going End to End today are NBC Sports Philadelphia's Jordan Hall and Brooke Destra.

The topic: Predictions for restricted free agent defenseman Ivan Provorov's contract.

Hall

It makes sense if Provorov's camp is looking for a longer-term deal.

Provorov has been utilized like a No. 1 defenseman and performed like one in 2017-18, at the age of 21. Over the past two seasons, he hasn't missed a game and has played 24:38 a night, the 11th-most minutes among all NHL blueliners.

A bridge contract can be risky. Provorov could turn into a bargain on such a deal and his camp probably feels the 22-year-old has warranted a better, more secure contract at this point.

On July 12, Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher said, "Until the market settles out a bit, it may be difficult to move forward on Provorov."

Jacob Trouba, one of the biggest RFA blueliners, recently signed a seven-year, $56 million deal with the Rangers, giving him an average annual value of $8 million. Other notable RFA defensemen Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy could impact the Provorov timetable and deal.

Not sure Provorov gets in the $8 million range. Trouba was a bit of a different case. He's 25 years old, fresh off a career 50-point season and was just acquired by the Rangers. Provorov is 22 and coming off a down year following a breakout 2017-18. There's a little more unknown there.

My best guess for Provorov is a five-year deal with an AAV in the $6 million range, which would make him the highest-paid Flyers defenseman. It would also allow him to still have a payday at 27 years old if he produces, as expected.

Destra

Provorov has the potential to be a franchise-changing player once he hits the peak of his career, but his ceiling is still a ways away — and that should be a good thing for the Flyers and an even better thing for the 22-year-old defenseman and his camp.

On the surface, a long-term deal seems like the best-case scenario. Locking up a key player of the young and developing core would be a no-brainer if the two sides could come to an agreement with contract terms, but one thought lingers in the back of my mind that might alter this — his performance last season. 

I do not believe that 2018-19 was any indication of the player Provorov is going to be in the future. His level of maturity, willingness to grow and dedication are only a few of the things that give him the kind of potential only some players can reach, especially at such a young age.

However, Provorov and his camp might be able to use this recent season to their advantage by negotiating a bridge deal rather than going long term right out of the gate. A three-year contract with an average annual value of $5 million could be the perfect segway into a longer-term deal. 

Not only would Provorov be able to prove himself as an up-and-coming leader for the team in addition to steadying the blue line, he would also be working toward earning himself a longer-term contract with a much higher value at only 25 years old. 

This would also benefit the Flyers as they would be able to see just how much he will be worth when he hits his prime. With the defenseman openly expressing how much he loves the people and organization in Philadelphia back in April during his exit interview, working on a longer-term deal following this one could be a win-win on both sides.

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Shorthanded Flyers can't keep up with Avalanche to begin road trip

Shorthanded Flyers can't keep up with Avalanche to begin road trip

BOX SCORE

From the moment it was announced that Oskar Lindblom would miss Wednesday night's game, the Flyers' chances at Pepsi Center felt bleak.

No Lindblom, no Travis Konecny and facing the NHL's highest-scoring team in its building was not a promising script for the Flyers, who lost to the Avalanche, 3-1.

In stretches this season, the Flyers have struggled to bury goals. And that has been with Lindblom and Konecny — their two leading goal-scorers at 11 apiece — in the lineup.

The Flyers (17-9-5) did some good things but Colorado finished plays behind its world class talent up top.

The Avalanche (20-8-3) are on an eight-game point streak (7-0-1) in which they've scored 4.13 goals per game.

• Without Konecny (concussion) and Lindblom (upper body), the Flyers had difficulty putting the puck in the net. They were going to have to put up some goals against the Avalanche, who entered scoring an NHL-best 3.70 goals per game. For the second time in the last three games, the Flyers scored only one goal.

The lone tally came from Claude Giroux when the Flyers were trailing 3-0 with just over five minutes remaining in regulation.

• Following a first period in which they survived, especially in the back half of it thanks to Carter Hart, the Flyers actually played a solid second period. At one point during the middle stanza, the Flyers were outshooting Colorado 11-0.

But as the Flyers kept pushing to no avail, the Avalanche changed the whole complexion of the period with one play by their two best weapons. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen hooked up for a nasty marker to make it 2-0 with 3:55 left in the period, a deflating goal to allow for the Flyers (see highlights).

Considering Colorado was 14-0-1 when leading after the middle period, the Flyers were in a serious hole, even after a hard-working period.

• Hart, who entered 8-2-2 with a 1.96 goals-against average and .928 save percentage over his last 12 starts, faced the Avalanche for the first time in his career.

He made a highlight-reel save and gave the Flyers a fighting chance in tough circumstances.

The 21-year-old has been impressive during the first period all season long, allowing the Flyers to find their legs and rhythm. He converted 12 of his 24 saves in the opening stanza against Colorado.

On the Avalanche's first-period goal, Scott Laughton won a defensive zone faceoff but the Flyers failed to clear the puck, resulting in Matt Calvert's tally.

Rantanen added his second goal early in the third period and that was pretty much the game.

Colorado goalie Pavel Francouz, who came in 5-0-1 with a 2.36 goals-against average and .926 save percentage over his last eight games (six starts), finished with 32 stops.

• When Philippe Myers (back spasms, day to day) is ready to return, Robert Hagg should be the odd man out on defense. Shayne Gostisbehere has found some of his offensive mojo and Myers has shown way too much promise to be sitting when healthy.

A stay-at-home guy like Hagg was far too noticeable against the Avalanche. He committed a penalty and was a minus-2 in 15:21 minutes.

• David Kase was summoned to Denver this morning to make his NHL debut and become the ninth rookie to play for the Flyers this season

The 22-year-old winger had a nice scoring chance and two shots in 7:47 minutes. 

• The Flyers head to the old stomping grounds of general manager Chuck Fletcher and assistant general manager Brent Flahr when they visit the Wild on Saturday (7 p.m. ET/NBCSP).

Fletcher was the GM in Minnesota from 2009 to 2018 and Flahr was his AGM from 2010 to 2018.

The Flyers have not lost consecutive games in regulation since Oct. 27-29.

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Flyers at Avalanche: Live stream, storylines, game time and more

Flyers at Avalanche: Live stream, storylines, game time and more

As one of the NHL's best teams since Nov. 1 (12-3-4, 28 points), the Flyers now face a new challenge.

Alain Vigneault's undermanned group begins a three-game road trip Wednesday as the Flyers (17-8-5) visit the Avalanche (19-8-3).

Let's get into the essentials:

When: 9:30 p.m. ET
Where: Pepsi Center
Broadcast: NBC Sports Network
Live stream: NBCSportsPhiladelphia.com

• The Flyers are without Travis Konecny (concussion, out indefinitely), Oskar Lindblom (upper body, out tonight), Philippe Myers (back spasms, day to day), Michael Raffl (broken right pinkie finger, out approximately four weeks) and Nolan Patrick (migraine disorder, out indefinitely).

"Injuries are a part of a season. You have to expect it," Vigneault said Monday. "Then you need somebody else to step up."

More than ever this season, the Flyers will be looking to Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes and James van Riemsdyk to produce among the forwards.

The Flyers are 10-2-1 when Hayes records a point and 9-1-0 when van Riemsdyk records a point.

• Not only are the Flyers severely shorthanded Wednesday night, but they're also facing the NHL's highest-scoring club. The Avalanche lead the league with 3.70 goals per game. Their top line of Nathan MacKinnon (47 points in 30 games), Mikko Rantanen (18 points in 14 games) and Gabriel Landeskog (nine points in 14 games) is scary.

"We know going into Colorado, we're going to have to be careful versus their top unit," Vigneault said Tuesday. "[Monday] night, they seemed to load up. That's one of the best lines in hockey."

• Carter Hart will face the Avalanche for the first time in his career.

The 21-year-old goalie is 8-2-2 with a 1.96 goals-against average and .928 save percentage over his last 12 starts.

Projected lineup

Forwards

Claude Giroux-Sean Couturier-Jakub Voracek
James van Riemsdyk-Morgan Frost-Tyler Pitlick
Scott Laughton-Kevin Hayes-Joel Farabee
David Kase-Mikhail Vorobyev-Chris Stewart

Defensemen

Ivan Provorov-Matt Niskanen
Travis Sanheim-Justin Braun
Shayne Gostisbehere-Robert Hagg

Goalies

Carter Hart
Brian Elliott

 

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