Flyers

Predicting Ivan Provorov's contract with Flyers

Predicting Ivan Provorov's contract with Flyers

Going End to End today are NBC Sports Philadelphia's Jordan Hall and Brooke Destra.

The topic: Predictions for restricted free agent defenseman Ivan Provorov's contract.

Hall

It makes sense if Provorov's camp is looking for a longer-term deal.

Provorov has been utilized like a No. 1 defenseman and performed like one in 2017-18, at the age of 21. Over the past two seasons, he hasn't missed a game and has played 24:38 a night, the 11th-most minutes among all NHL blueliners.

A bridge contract can be risky. Provorov could turn into a bargain on such a deal and his camp probably feels the 22-year-old has warranted a better, more secure contract at this point.

On July 12, Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher said, "Until the market settles out a bit, it may be difficult to move forward on Provorov."

Jacob Trouba, one of the biggest RFA blueliners, recently signed a seven-year, $56 million deal with the Rangers, giving him an average annual value of $8 million. Other notable RFA defensemen Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy could impact the Provorov timetable and deal.

Not sure Provorov gets in the $8 million range. Trouba was a bit of a different case. He's 25 years old, fresh off a career 50-point season and was just acquired by the Rangers. Provorov is 22 and coming off a down year following a breakout 2017-18. There's a little more unknown there.

My best guess for Provorov is a five-year deal with an AAV in the $6 million range, which would make him the highest-paid Flyers defenseman. It would also allow him to still have a payday at 27 years old if he produces, as expected.

Destra

Provorov has the potential to be a franchise-changing player once he hits the peak of his career, but his ceiling is still a ways away — and that should be a good thing for the Flyers and an even better thing for the 22-year-old defenseman and his camp.

On the surface, a long-term deal seems like the best-case scenario. Locking up a key player of the young and developing core would be a no-brainer if the two sides could come to an agreement with contract terms, but one thought lingers in the back of my mind that might alter this — his performance last season. 

I do not believe that 2018-19 was any indication of the player Provorov is going to be in the future. His level of maturity, willingness to grow and dedication are only a few of the things that give him the kind of potential only some players can reach, especially at such a young age.

However, Provorov and his camp might be able to use this recent season to their advantage by negotiating a bridge deal rather than going long term right out of the gate. A three-year contract with an average annual value of $5 million could be the perfect segway into a longer-term deal. 

Not only would Provorov be able to prove himself as an up-and-coming leader for the team in addition to steadying the blue line, he would also be working toward earning himself a longer-term contract with a much higher value at only 25 years old. 

This would also benefit the Flyers as they would be able to see just how much he will be worth when he hits his prime. With the defenseman openly expressing how much he loves the people and organization in Philadelphia back in April during his exit interview, working on a longer-term deal following this one could be a win-win on both sides.

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2020 NHL playoffs: Flyers' outlook for round robin, first round

2020 NHL playoffs: Flyers' outlook for round robin, first round

The round-robin tournament of the NHL's 24-team return-to-play format will represent different kinds of importance for the fourth-seeded Flyers.

Firstly, they couldn't ask for a better tune-up ahead of their first-round series. They'll play each of the Eastern Conference's top three teams once before meeting their opening-round opponent.

Secondly, those dates with the East's best could help the Flyers climb even more. The total points accumulated in the round-robin tournament will determine the conference's seed Nos. 1-4. If there are ties after the set of games, which will feature regular-season overtime and shootout rules, the regular-season points percentages of each club will serve as the tiebreaker.

How could the Flyers fare in the round-robin portion and what would it ultimately mean for their outlook in the 24-team setup?

Here are three factors to note:

1. Can Flyers win round robin?

They shouldn't be considered heavy underdogs. The Flyers will be confident in their opportunity to improve their seed after going 2-1-0 against the top-seeded Bruins during the regular season and 3-0-1 vs. the third-seeded Capitals. The second-seeded Lightning were the one club that gave the Flyers trouble. The Flyers dropped two games in regulation to Tampa Bay, but one was a 1-0 defeat and the other was a chippy 5-3 loss with an empty-netter in the final 22 seconds.

The Flyers have a goalie who keeps them in games and a group that held its own with the fellow top seeds in major statistical categories:

Goals per game

Lightning — 3.47
Capitals — 3.42
Flyers — 3.29
Bruins — 3.24

Goals against per game

Bruins — 2.39
Flyers — 2.77
Lightning — 2.77
Capitals — 3.07

Power play percentage

Bruins — 25.2
Lightning — 23.1
Flyers — 20.8
Capitals — 19.4

Penalty kill percentage

Bruins — 84.3
Capitals — 82.6
Flyers — 81.8
Lightning — 81.4

2. Wait, would they want to climb?

It's an interesting question right now because the NHL and NHLPA are undetermined on the format for the first and second rounds, whether it be bracketed or reseeding after the qualifying round.

That's a huge question.

Say the Flyers stayed at No. 4 in a bracket-style scenario and the 12th-seeded Canadiens knocked off the fifth-seeded Penguins, the Flyers would face Montreal. On paper, that would be a pretty favorable matchup against the lowest seed in the East. Whereas the No. 1 seed in the conference would face the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup.

If the league instead agrees to reseed, such a scenario would see the No. 1 seed face the Canadiens during the first round, whereas the Flyers, as the fourth seed, would get the highest remaining seed to advance from the qualifying round.

When/if the Flyers play round-robin games, the NHL will have made a decision on the format for the first and second rounds. Right now, just about everything is undecided for the Flyers.

3. The good thing?

The Flyers can't hurt themselves in the round robin. As the lowest seed of the four, they can only improve their seed. If the Flyers struggle, they stay put at No. 4 and at least played three competitive warmup games for their first-round series.

The Flyers went 22-8-5 against the Eastern Conference playoff field during the regular season, so they'll like their chances against whichever team they draw.

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With the 2019-20 NHL regular season concluded, Alain Vigneault should win the Jack Adams Award

With the 2019-20 NHL regular season concluded, Alain Vigneault should win the Jack Adams Award

In general manager Chuck Fletcher’s first offseason with the Flyers, he had quite an extensive to-do list before October came around. While adding depth and a few new faces to the roster were toward the top of the list, nothing was more important than the task of bringing in a new head coach.

Many had their sights set on Joel Quennville, who was fired by the Blackhawks early in the 2018-19 season. It was a shock to the hockey world, considering he helped Chicago bring home three Stanley Cups over the course of 10 years. Ultimately, he chose to go to Florida. No, not to retire. Quennville was off to his new team the Panthers to be their bench boss. 

Eventually, news broke that Alain Vigneault was coming to town. Like every other offseason acquisition, the response was all over the place. Little did Philadelphia know at the time, but it just received a perfect fit for its city, its team and the organization.

It is an honor to be selected as the next head coach of the Flyers," Vigneault said following his hire. "The history they have established and the passionate fan base has made this a first-class franchise. I am excited to work with Chuck, the talented group of players and prospects coming up through the system, in order to return Philadelphia to the top of the NHL landscape.

Who knew that in just a few short months, the Flyers would in fact be near the top of the NHL landscape once more. Again, a lot of this is owed to Fletcher and his moves in the offseason and around the trade deadline — but when you look at the team’s overall success on a nightly basis? That’s all Vigneault.

There was a mentality tilt this season in comparison to prior ones. The locker room had a different vibe right from the jump and you could sense how it has positively affected the Flyers' overall game. Vigneault has also shown he is not afraid to speak up and be honest to his players and the media to give his team a kick in the right direction.

The abrupt halt to the NHL season has been rough for many — especially Flyers fans, as they had been anticipating a season precisely like this one for quite some time. The official word was released that if hockey does return, the league will go straight to the playoffs, meaning the 2019-20 regular season has concluded. Now, since that’s the case, league awards will have to be given out based on the condensed season — all the more reason to name Vigneault coach of the year. 

A few key examples

• From the beginning of training camp, he didn’t hold back when discussing his thoughts on Travis Konecny and the need to have him here to get familiar with the new faces and systems in the organization. Thankfully for the Flyers, Konecny and the team came to terms, he arrived shortly after and is having the best season of his young career. 

• Vigneault has not been afraid to call out the veterans on the team, either. Knowing what his players are capable of, it’s important for him to get the best out of them.  

• When the Flyers released a statement that Oskar Lindblom had been diagnosed with Ewing’s sarcoma, it was a difficult time for everyone. Sports aside, the human aspect of it all is mentally draining. Lindblom has received such overwhelming support from players, fans and especially Vigneault — always referencing his “great smile” when the 23-year-old forward attends a game or practice.  

• Looking at a near-complete season without Nolan Patrick (migraine disorder), a shortened season from Lindblom and injuries that popped up throughout the whole season — James van Riemsdyk with a broken hand, Shayne Gostisbehere’s knee injury, Scott Laughton and Michael Raffl’s broken fingers and Konecny missing a handful of games because of a concussion … it’s safe to say it never looked like this team was missing a key player. That’s all due to call-ups and how Vigneault adjusted his lines every time the Flyers hit the ice. 

Vigneault has been everything the city could want in a coach and more. And while there certainly are a handful of other coaches within the league that are also deserving of this award (John Tortorella in Columbus, Travis Green in Vancouver), nothing comes close to the case the new bench boss has made in Philadelphia.

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