Haberstroh's NBA midseason awards: MVP, best coach and rookies

Haberstroh's NBA midseason awards: MVP, best coach and rookies

As most teams hit the 41-game mark this week, what better time to hit the pause button and see how the award races are shaping up?

With All-Star break about a month away, here’s one person’s opinion on the major awards. 

Most Valuable Player: James Harden 
Runners up: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Joel Embiid

Harden checks every box. Traditionalists will love his eye-popping scoring average (he’s leading the scoring title by full 5.0 points, which would be the largest gap since Michael Jordan's 1986-87 season when he averaged 37.1 to Dominique Wilkins' 29.0) and triple-doubles combined with the narrative that he’s “carrying” the Chris Paul-less Rockets. The nerdier voters will appreciate his freakish efficiency (his current true-shooting percentage tops Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant’s best) and off-the-charts offensive RPM. Both ends of the spectrum can get behind Harden.

Put it this way: Who has raised a team’s championship odds more this season? 

You could make a strong case for Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose Bucks have the NBA’s best net-rating at plus-9.2. But the addition of head coach Mike Budenholzer, who overhauled both ends of the floor, muddies the picture for the Greek Freak. Who deserves credit for the Bucks’ rise?

That question is easier to answer for the Rockets. It seems like a lifetime ago, but only one month has passed since Houston general manager Daryl Morey came on The Habershow podcast with the 11-12 Rockets reeling in the wake of the Carmelo Anthony debacle. Rather than retreat, Morey doubled down: “We feel like we can be better than last year. I know I sound crazy saying that.”

Shortly after that, Paul got hurt, and the Rockets went on a tear, Harden leading the way. Over the past 14 games, Harden has averaged 40.3 points and 9.4 assists while shooting 40.2 percent on a whopping 14.9 3-pointers per game. To put that into perspective, Harden averaged 30.4 points and 8.8 assists while shooting 36.7 percent on 10 3-pointers per game during his MVP campaign last season.

The difference between last year’s campaign and this one? Harden has turned the step-back 3 into a basketball superpower. He’s getting defenders off balance and routinely racking up three-shot fouls, which is the most profitable play in the game. Peruse the Basketball-Reference logs and you’ll find that Harden has accumulated 38 three-shot fouls this season. That’s more than Damian Lillard (16), Stephen Curry (10) and JJ Redick (8) combined. He used to hunt for the three-shot foul in pick-and-rolls, but the league started cracking down on it. Now, he’s getting it with the step-back 3.

While Harden has my vote for first-half MVP, I’m a tad concerned that he’ll wear down. He’s leading the league in minutes per game and the Rockets are paper-thin at the guard position. Case-in-point: Free-agent pickup Austin Rivers is averaging a team-high 38.5 minutes per game in his eight contests with the team. Harden’s MVP candidacy may be dented by Paul’s eventual return, but they need more bodies to win at the highest level.

Antetokounmpo may have taken the lead in the larger MVP conversation after Wednesday’s victory over the Rockets, but I’m still leaning Harden, who is averaging 20.2 assist points per game in addition to his own scoring. Also in the running is Joel Embiid, who is putting up Shaq-like numbers for the Sixers, and Paul George, who might be the best two-way player in the game. Speaking of George...

Defensive Player of the Year: Paul George
Runners up: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert, Jrue Holiday

The Thunder have the NBA’s best defense by a good margin despite not having Andre Roberson, who might've been the best perimeter defender in the league last season.

George has snatched that distinction from Roberson this year. Here’s a list of guys he’s guarded for at least 10 possessions this season: James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kemba Walker, Luka Doncic, Jrue Holiday, Klay Thompson and Devin Booker. That versatility enables the Thunder to blanket opponents on the perimeter while Steven Adams mans the middle and owns the backline. George’s on-court defensive rating of 99.9 is second-best for any player among the 84 players averaging at least 30 minutes per game, per NBA.com. Some of that is due to Adams, but George leads all players in deflections and loose balls recovered. He’s everywhere.

Gobert may end up winning this award again now that the Jazz have overcome a funky start on that end of the floor, but his on-off splits haven’t been nearly as stark as last season. Embiid, for his part, has defended the most shots at the rim in the NBA and held opponents to a crazy-low 54.2 percent on those shots. Holiday is a 6-foot-4 straitjacket, but for this award, I can’t ignore that the Pelicans have a bottom-six defensive rating.

Ultimately, George has earned this spot. In today’s 3-point-heavy league, lock-down perimeter defenders are more valuable than ever. With Kawhi Leonard sitting out games to rest, George has ascended to become the gold standard on that end of the floor. 

Coach of the Year: Dave Joerger
Runners up: Mike Malone, Mike Budenholzer, Doc Rivers

It feels odd to hand this award to the coach of a team that’s been hovering around .500 all season, but the Kings might hit their Vegas over/under projection before the All-Star break. 

It’s not just some lucky wins here and there. Joerger has completely overhauled their playing style and tailored it for young legs. Last season, their offensive possessions lasted 15.4 seconds on average, the third-slowest pace in the league, per Inpredictable.com. This season? Joerger has handed the keys to De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield and the results are a group averaging 13.1 seconds on offense, which is the second-quickest rate in the league. They’re running teams out of the gym.

Despite the fifth-youngest roster in the league, the Kings are also holding their own in clutch situations. Per NBA.com tracking, the Kings are 14-10 when the game is within five points in the final five minutes, a better record than the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and the LeBron-led Los Angeles Lakers. 

Who says young teams can’t win in the NBA? To me, the Kings are the biggest surprise of the season and this award reflects that.

Sixth Man of the Year: Domantas Sabonis
Runners up: Montrezl Harrell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Derrick Rose

This guy is an absolute stud. The 22-year-old has been a monster for the Pacers’ nasty second unit along with Tyreke Evans and Cory Joseph. Over the last 10 games, the son of the legendary Arvydas Sabonis is averaging 17.6 points and 8.7 rebounds on 60.7 percent shooting and providing stout defense up front. He doesn’t have Anthony Davis’ wingspan, but he doesn’t need it to make an impact defensively. He has allowed the fewest points per possession on plays against him (.771), according to Synergy tracking (minimum 300 plays defended).

The only red flag here? Sabonis might not be a bench player for long. Thaddeus Young just won an East Player of the Week award, but Sabonis deserves the starting gig, and soon. Sabonis is averaging 21.3 points, 13.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists per 36 minutes this season with great touch around the rim and a nice pick-and-pop game in the mid-range. If he can re-discover his 3-point stroke, he could be Kevin Love 2.0 (who also came off the bench at the beginning of his career).

With Myles Turner, Young and Sabonis, Indiana suddenly has a logjam in the frontcourt, but don’t be surprised if the Pacers -- who also have Kyle O’Quinn as insurance -- make a move to free up some starter minutes for Sabonis. He’s earned them.

If Sabonis does move off the bench, there are several other candidates of consideration. Spencer Dinwiddie is the new Lou Williams (who also deserves plenty of votes). Derrick Rose has started over a third of his games, which might disqualify him in many eyes, but he’s been a revelation this season. When it comes to picking between Sabonis or Montrezl Harrell, you’re splitting hairs at this point. Both have been incredible supersubs, but Sabonis’ playmaking and rebounding gives him the edge. 

Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic
Runners up: Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson Jr., Wendell Carter Jr.

You could make a case here for a few guys in this loaded class and I wouldn’t mind. But to me, no one has been more dominant than Doncic, who is the only rookie in the top 50 of ESPN’s RPM. As last week’s BIG Number illustrates, Doncic, as a teenager, is putting up numbers we haven’t seen since LeBron James. Only James Harden tallied more free throws than Doncic in the month of December, which is downright absurd for a teenager.

Like Harden, Doncic has used the “slow” or “unathletic” label to his advantage -- starting and stopping on a dime and capitalizing on the defender’s overeagerness to draw fouls. Doncic’s expert tempo and court awareness has more than made up for a perceived lack of athleticism. Only 6.6 percent of Doncic’s 2-pointers have been blocked this season, per pbpstats.com, which is lower than that of leapers like LeBron James (7.0), Giannis Antetokounmpo (8.0) and Andrew Wiggins (8.8 percent) -- and nearly half that of Zach LaVine (13.6). 

In any normal year, Ayton, Jackson and Carter Jr., could win but not when Doncic is averaging 19.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists for a team that holds a positive point margin. The seemingly slow Doncic has picked up the NBA game mighty quick.

Most Improved Player: De’Aaron Fox
Runners up: Pascal Siakam, Monte Morris, Thomas Bryant

Often times, Most Improved Player is misinterpreted as Most Minutes-Improved Player, but you can’t say that about Fox, who is just plain better than he was last season. The 21-year-old went from averaging 11.6 points, 4.4 assists and 2.7 free throw attempts per game last season to 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 attempts per game this season (he’s only playing 3.9 more minutes per game). Usually, we see turnovers soar with the larger burden, but not in Fox’s case.

There’s some pace inflation in those stats because of the Kings’ new run-and-gun offense. But you know who makes all that possible? That’s right: Fox. Despite only playing 31.7 minutes per game, he’s sixth in the NBA in total transition points, per Synergy Sports tracking, while also helping Buddy Hield rank second on that same list. This season, Fox has posted a higher player-efficiency rating (19.0) and win-shares total (3.0) than his draft classmates Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma. Who saw that coming?

Fox often times looked lost in his rookie season. This year, Fox has often looked like the best player in his class. That’s improvement.

Some feel that sophomores shouldn’t win this award because improvement is almost expected after a rookie season. If that’s your philosophy, then Siakam is your guy. The third-year forward has become a go-to scorer for the Toronto Raptors, who have gone 8-2 without Kawhi Leonard this season in no small part because of Siakam’s continued improvement. Denver’s Monte Morris and Washington’s Thomas Bryant were G-Leaguers last season but have rescued their teams with their stellar play this season at the NBA level. 

Is Rockets' James Harden really having the best scoring season ever?

haberstroh_article_1920x1080_120219.jpg
NBC Sports

Is Rockets' James Harden really having the best scoring season ever?

James Harden is doing some crazy stuff this season. The former Sixth Man of the Year is nearly averaging an unfathomable 40 points per game. He just scored 60 points in a little more than 30 minutes of game action and hasn’t scored fewer than 25 points in a game since opening night. Defenses are now trying to trap him before halfcourt.

Is he the best scorer of this generation? Probably. Three straight scoring titles would cement that status.

But is he the best scorer ever? Well, that gets a little more complicated. We could simply list the best scoring seasons by points per game and leave it at that. But as you’ll see below, that would be short-sighted.

Why? Let’s start at the basics.

Harden is currently averaging 39.5 points per game. If it holds, that would rank third all-time on the scoring leaderboard for a season. The only name above him? Wilt Chamberlain, who of course sees your 40 points per game and raises you 50.

Case closed. Chamberlain is the best scorer ever, with the best scoring season ever, right? 

Not so fast. Let’s zoom out and look at the top 20 scoring seasons in NBA history. 

Notice anything odd? Hint: Look at the season column. Yeah, that’s a lot of of the 1960s. Eleven of the top 20 scoring seasons of all time came within an eight-year span. What’s up with that? 

Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor and Rick Barry were incredible scorers, to be sure. But it has to be mentioned that they played in an era where teams regularly took over 100 shots per game. In an eight-team league playing at a crazy-fast pace, and in which Chamberlain was one of three 7-footers playing in the league, the NBA was ripe for an outlier season. 

Though we didn’t have a complete picture in the box score (turnovers didn’t become an official stat until 1973-74), we can get a pretty good idea of how “fast” the league was in that season by using Basketball Reference’s best estimates. We find that Chamberlain’s team, the Philadelphia Warriors, played a whopping 131.1 possessions per game, the fastest of the eight teams. The slowest team, the Chicago Packers, played at 122.9 possessions per game. Even taken as a ballpark figure, that’s a Formula 1 race car compared to the speed of the modern era.

If you thought today’s pace-and-space era was fast, the back-and-forth NBA of the 1960’s leaves them in the dust. The fastest team this season, according to Basketball Reference tracking, is the Washington Wizards and they churn out 105.2 possessions per game. To put it in perspective, the slowest team in 1961-62 played almost 18 additional possessions per game than today’s fastest team.

That’s almost an entire quarter’s worth of extra hoops in which to rack up points. You might be asking yourself, “Well, what what happens when we take that same top 20 and adjust for pace?” 

Good question! I tweaked the per-game numbers by normalizing it to a 100-possession environment. Players that played on a slow team (below 100 possessions per game) will get a boost and players that played on a fast team (above 100 possessions) will have their numbers fall back down to Earth a bit. 

After making this adjustment, we get an entirely new leaderboard. Lakers fans, you might want to sit down for this one.

Holy, Kobe Bean Bryant! After adjusting for pace, Bryant’s 2005-06 campaign floats to the top of the list, up from his previous spot of 11th-best. It’s one thing to average 35.4 points per game, but it’s another to do it while playing at a snail’s pace. In Phil Jackson’s return to the Staples Center bench after a one-year hiatus, the Lakers barely cleared 90 possessions per game, over 40 fewer possessions per game than Chamberlain’s record-holding ‘61-62 campaign.

A comparison between Bryant’s 81-point game and Chamberlain’s 100-point game -- the two highest-scoring individual performances in NBA history -- further illustrates the difference in eras and playing styles. In Chamberlain’s infamous 100-point outing, the Warriors fired up 118 field goal attempts, which is 30 more scoring opportunities than the Lakers had when Bryant went for 81. (Chamberlain’s Warriors scored 169 points in that game, which was only the sixth-highest scoring game in NBA history at the time. Again: Pace.)

Bryant has always been considered one of the best scorers of all-time, but he happened to rule during the NBA’s Deadball Era, in which point totals slumped across the board. The 2004 Lakers scored 68 points in an entire Finals game for crying out loud. Under the terms of our exercise, Bryant would average an extra 4.4 points per game simply by adjusting to a pace of 100 possessions per game. 

And Harden? He’s still near the top of the list. His current season is docked 1.8 points per game because the Houston Rockets have stepped on the accelerator this season with Russell Westbrook on board. The Rockets’ pace, according to Basketball Reference tracking, sits at 104.9 this season, up from 97.9 last season with Chris Paul running the point. By this measure, Harden’s season is almost a mirror image of last season’s scoring campaign.

More importantly, even through this new lens, Harden’s ‘19-20 scoring binge is still not superior to Chamberlain’s monster '61-62 season, but the gap is smaller. Once we put the era’s pace into context, Harden and Chamberlain are less than one point per game apart. If Harden’s season average surges to 40.3 points per game, that would put him on par with Chamberlain in adjusted points per game. (He’d need to finish at 40.6 and 40.8 raw points per game to catch Jordan and Bryant, respectively).

Is Harden having one of the best scoring seasons ever? Most definitely. It’s right up there with the legendary scorers in NBA history. If he starts regularly putting up 42 points a night in this environment, he’d have the best scoring season ever in my book -- better than Wilt’s 50.4 season -- but it’s hard to see Harden pulling that off. Then again, no one saw a Sixth Man of the Year averaging nearly 40 points per game, either.

Follow me on Twitter (@TomHaberstroh), and bookmark NBCSports.com/Haberstroh for my latest stories and videos and subscribe to the Habershow podcast.

Can Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid handle life as a guard?

haberstroh_article_1920x1080_112519_giannis.jpg
NBC Sports

Can Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid handle life as a guard?

Karl-Anthony Towns held the ball while Rudy Gobert, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year, guarded him tightly. The pair of 7-footers weren’t wrestling in the paint like traditional centers would. On this late November night, they were 25 feet away from the basket, and Towns was stuck.

Enter Jeff Teague, the Timberwolves’ nominal point guard. He shuffled over to Towns and instead of asking for the ball, the 6-foot-3 ball-handler set a screen -- that’s right, set a screen -- for the 7-foot center. That misdirection prompted another. Using the pick would have meant Towns had to dribble to his right in the direction of his dominant hand. Instead, Towns juked right-to-left, dribbled hard past the arc with his opposite hand and abruptly shifted into reverse for a stepback 3-pointer, displaying the quick footwork of a ballerina set in fast-forward.

“Karl is the modern-day NBA big,” said Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas on the latest Habershow podcast. “He was one of the major reasons, if not the major reason why I took this job.”

Towns is currently taking more 3-pointers and making a higher percentage of those shots than Stephen Curry did in his 2014-15 MVP season. But it’s not just the shooting that jumps off the page. Watch the NBA on any given night and you’ll witness seven-footers like Towns running pick-and-rolls, shooting 3-pointers and zipping around the floor like they’re six-footers. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose towering dimensions appear to be designed in an NBA laboratory, has pounded out more dribbles this season than Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, per NBA.com player tracking data. LeBron James is the size of Karl Malone and leads the NBA in assists. Luka Doncic, behind James on the assist leaderboard, stands 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds, roughly the same as Xavier McDaniel -- only heavier.

Other skilled giants like Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis often play outside-in, not inside-out. It’s clear that the guardification of NBA bigs has taken over the sport. What’s not clear is whether their enormous bodies can handle it.

* * *

Athletes around the world are bigger, faster and stronger than previous generations. Last month, Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya ran a sub-2-hour marathon, clocking in four minutes faster than the world record set a decade ago. The average weight of NFL offensive linemen in the 1970s was 249 pounds compared to today’s weigh-in of 315 pounds. In 1999, Tim Isaac became the first man to bench press over 800 pounds (802 to be exact). Today, that record is 1,102 pounds, belonging to a man named Tiny Meeker.

Oddly enough, the NBA hasn’t gotten appreciably bigger or taller, on average. The average NBA player, according to Basketball Reference tracking, is actually an inch shorter and seven pounds lighter than they were in 2010-11. But NBA players have gotten markedly more athletic, allowing giants to move like hummingbirds. 

In the eyes of Dr. Marcus Elliott, the load management conversation has skipped over this critical piece of the puzzle. The founder of P3 Peak Performance labs in Santa Barbara, Calif., Elliot and his sports science team are at the core of a global movement trying to keep professional athletes healthy. What Elliott sees from his vantage point is a fundamental shift in how NBA players are moving.

“The game has just gotten so much faster and more athletic,” Elliott says. “You can’t do apples to apples to the NBA 20 years ago.”

Elliott isn’t basing his opinion on anecdotal evidence. Over the past decade, the P3 staff has assessed the biomechanics of hundreds of NBA players -- 58 percent of the players on opening-night rosters, P3 says -- and one trend keeps popping up. 

“All of the athletes are improving their athleticism, but the rate that our bigs are improving is much faster than the guards and perimeter players,” Elliott says.

As part of the biomechanical assessments that P3 delivers to its NBA clientele, P3 leads off with an “Athleticism” score that measures an athlete’s ability to move vertically and laterally. Recently, P3 crunched the numbers and analyzed how these scores have changed over time for two groups: “bigs” and guards/wings. Before 2016, the average “big” received an Athleticism score of 62. Since 2016, however, the average big’s Athleticism score jumped to 69, an increase of seven points. Over the same window, guards and wings have improved their Athleticism score by just three points, less than half that of their towering teammates.

“A decade ago, if we had a 7-foot guy come in that had decent skills, that’s an NBA player,” says Elliott. “Now, if we have a 7-foot guy who comes in and he’s not athletic, we don’t know if we have an NBA player.”

Elliott remembers when Andre Drummond came into P3’s lab several years ago and shocked the staff with his other-worldly metrics. They analyzed his movements in every direction and his scores were remarkably consistent with NBA athletes who weighed 100 pounds lighter than him. He was, in essence, a big who moved like a guard.

“Drummond was a unicorn, but there are a lot more of these unicorns now,” Elliott says. “They’re not really unicorns anymore.”

Before Drummond, it was Derrick Favors, who at one point ranked near the top of P3’s leaderboards in just about every category.

“Pretty athletic big that we got in 10 years ago,” Elliott says of Favors. “These guys stood out. Now, it’s status quo. We expect them to be athletic and move laterally and be overall big movers. They were the exception 10 years ago.”

Now, it’s the rule.

* * *

What is driving the athletic surge in tall players? Elliott points to two factors: the increasingly global nature of the NBA and sheer economics that have incentivized players to pay closer attention to training.

As the NBA sets up academies in India and Africa, the selection pool of NBA athletes is ever-expanding. The league’s international bridges were evident when Antetokounmpo and Doncic trained together this offseason at P3’s sports science lab. Antetokounmpo, or “The Greek Freak,” is the son of Nigerian immigrants and a native of Athens. Doncic, meanwhile, is a 6-foot-7 point guard from Slovenia and the son of a professional basketball player who was born in a small town on the Solvenian-Italian border with a knack for churning out pro soccer players. If not for the international explosion of the sport, it’s entirely possible this season’s two MVP frontrunners could have put the ball to their foot rather than in their hand.

With international exposure of the league growing and TV deals in China, Europe and North America leading to a salary cap boom, NBA players are richer than ever. The average NBA player makes $7.7 million compared to $2.9 million in 2000, while the top NBA salary is Stephen Curry’s $40.2 million compared against Shaquille O’Neal’s $17.1 million in 1999-00. The increased wages make the NBA an even more desirable goal for the best athletes in the world, while also giving the ones that do make it more resources to sharpen their athleticism. The record income then trickles to secondary trainers, nutritionists and chefs, whose primary jobs are to keep players in top shape. 

“The overall selection pool has gotten so much bigger and the incentive to have a career is so much bigger,” Elliott says.

That career is also more demanding on the body. After hovering around 90 possessions per game for much of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, league-wide pace this season exceeded 100 possessions per game for the first time since 1988-89. The rise of the 3-pointer and emphasis on pick-and-roll defense has required bigs to be more perimeter-oriented. 

“When we started assessing NBA players back in 2009, if you asked most NBA bigs, what they wanted to improve, 10 out of 10 would say their vertical jump,” Elliott says. “The majority of bigs we get in now say they want their lateral movement to improve.”

That mobility comes at a cost. To Elliott, the constant chatter about load management and minutes restrictions overlooks a key point: what’s happening in those minutes. Players are objectively covering more ground in today’s NBA than in years past. Last season, players collectively ran 3,139 more miles than they did in 2013-14 despite the season length and game regulation time being held constant.

But Elliott thinks that only scratches the surface.

“That’s a pretty big change,” Elliott says, “but I really think where you’re going to really see the load of these guys is these ballistic accelerations, both negative and positive,” Elliott says. “How fast they stop, how fast they change direction, how fast they go. It’s these super high intensity stop-and-go’s that are really destructive.”

* * *

As a leader in the space, Elliott has grown tired of the complaints about load management. He jokes that it’s become a dirty phrase now. 

The NBA’s most influential media voice, Charles Barkley, hates it. Michael Jordan reportedly told his Hornets players they’re paid to play 82 games. When asked if rookie R.J. Barrett was being overworked, New York Knicks head coach David Fizdale said “we gotta get off this load management crap” and referenced Latrell Sprewell averaging 42 minutes per game one season (Sprewell averaged 43.1 in 1993-94).

To Elliott, the focus on minutes misses the point. 

“There’s this constant back and forth about ‘when we played …’ ‘when we played,’” Elliot says. “I don’t think that people have given enough attention to how different the game is compared to when they played 20 years ago. These athletes are so much more ballistic and across the board more athletic. These are amazing systems driving super, super hard.”

The pace-and-space era of the NBA is putting increased demands on the bigger athletes. To Elliott, taller players face more injury risk simply because their bodies haven’t been optimized for movement patterns. A 7-footer can get by at younger levels simply by being tall, rather than being an efficient mover. But once they get in the NBA, those movement patterns can catch up to them.

“I still think that NBA athletes are a ways away from being optimized,” Elliott says. “We don’t get many athletes that have as much slack in their system as NBA athletes do. That’s one of the reasons that the game is going to get that much more powerful and more ballistic. NBA players have more slack in their physical development in almost all the professional athletes that we assess.”

Elliott says that track athletes that come through P3 are at 99 percent of where they could be athletically, leaving only 1 percent of space to improve, or “slack” as he calls it. Each percentage point can be the difference between college and Olympian grade. “They don’t make it out of high school at 90 percent.”

NBA players, on the other hand, aren’t nearly as mechanically optimized, settling in at typically 80 percent in his view. “It’s still a skill-dominant sport,” Elliot says.

The slack can be costly. Elliott recently presented new research at Harvard Medical School that studied the biomechanics of 481 NBA subjects and used granular kinetic data to predict whether a player would have a significant knee injury (ACL, MCL and meniscus) that would require surgery in the next year. The P3 machine-learning algorithm was able to predict 70 percent of those major knee injuries simply by looking at how a player moves.

“The load being placed on them is so close to what they’ll be able to manage,” Elliott says, “If they have a screw loose, something probably breaks.”

Elliot wouldn’t reveal the names of his NBA subjects in the study. But it’s safe to say that high-profile knee injuries in recent years to DeMarcus Cousins (torn ACL), Kristaps Porzingis (torn ACL) and Zion Williamson (torn meniscus) were likely due, in part, to some underlying breakdown in the kinetic chain -- whether it was how aligned joints were when the player landed or the balance of force between right-to-left and left-to-right. Simply put, injuries are not 100 percent a product of bad luck.

“Doesn’t matter what size your engine is, if your brakes and suspension are crap, you’re toast,” says P3’s director of biomechanics, Eric Leidersdorf, who has the build of a high school soccer player. “You can have an engine like mine or an engine like Zion Williamson’s, it won’t matter at that point.”

For years, Elliott has wanted to get LeBron James in his P3 facility, just to witness the kinematic system that’s allowed James to perform at this level for so long. Now officially listed at 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, James is the ultimate guard in a big’s body. In his age-35 season, James is averaging a career-high 11 assists per game while averaging 25.6 points and 7.4 rebounds. His durability is the stuff of legend, never missing more than 10 games in any stretch of his career until last season when he suffered a groin injury on Christmas. (James was playing on by far the fastest team of his career, pace-wise). 

But more important than genetics, James famously invests seven figures per year on body optimization strategies and personally employs a staff that includes a professional biomechanist, multiple chefs and masseuses. He regularly uses cryotherapy, hyberbaric chambers and NormaTec recovery sleeves to stay healthy.

It’s a lesson that Elliott hopes will inspire other premiere athletes to take extra care of their bodies, especially the bigs that have progressed largely because of their size.

“The speed of the game and the load on these players, something has to give,” Elliott says. “It’s a game that’s so hard on these players’ systems, playing 82 games at this speed that it’s played now, it’s so hard on these guys’ systems. When mechanics are messed up, they’re not going to survive.”

Elliott doesn’t see the NBA slowing down anytime soon. When asked what kind of impact those ramped-up velocities will have on the largest of human bodies, Elliott isn’t so sure.

 “I don’t know long-term,” Elliot says, “what it’s going to do.”

Follow me on Twitter (@TomHaberstroh), and bookmark NBCSports.com/Haberstroh for my latest stories and videos and subscribe to the Habershow podcast.