That’s a wrap on the NBA trade deadline. With a shallow free agency class this summer and a flattened championship race, this trade deadline figured to be an arms race rather than a scavenger hunt for cap space.
And there was action -- just not at the very top. Both top seeds, Milwaukee and the Lakers, stood pat at the deadline. But there was plenty of movement below.
On Thursday morning, I thought this column would be a winners-only piece. I thought most teams had done an impressive job of managing their assets. But that changed by the day’s end. Let’s hash out the winners and losers.
It’s still stunning to me that the Grizzlies didn’t command a pick for taking on Dion Waiters and James Johnson’s contract. Yes, Justise Winslow is only 23 years old, the same age as their rookie Brandon Clarke, but Winslow’s injury woes figured to warrant some sort of draft pick compensation.
Alas, Heat prez Pat Riley and GM Andy Elisburg were able to land Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill without giving up anything in the draft pick department. Yes, there’s risk here. Iguodala is 36 years old and hasn’t played competitive basketball in half a year. Giving him a two-year extension (second year is a team option) before he steps foot on the court may prove to be unwise.
But the upside of Iguodala, Crowder and Jimmy Butler wreaking havoc on opposing wings is well worth the price of Winslow and two contracts dumps. Scoring against the Heat is going to be a problem in the playoffs.
Winslow has struggled to gain traction in the NBA as a tweener with an inconsistent jump shot. It was hard to see how he’d fit in the Heat’s playoff attack without the ball in his hands. The Heat have plenty of young players in Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn and Bam Adebayo -- seriously, Adebayo is twenty-freakin’-two -- to balance out the aging nucleus of Iguodala, Butler and Goran Dragic.
On paper, this doesn’t put them over the top in the East. But if the Bucks lose a top guy to injury, the Heat have positioned themselves to have the inside track to the Finals. And they still have long-term flexibility. If Iguodala doesn’t work out, they project to have about $50 million in cap space in 2021 when Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard could all be free agents.
This Rockets team is going to be wild. Really, this trade comes down to this: Can you guard James Harden one-on-one? Can you guard Russell Westbrook one-on-one? By essentially swapping Clint Capela for Robert Covington, the Houston Rockets are betting that opponents’ answers to both are a hard no. Whether that’s true or not will seal the Rockets’ fate.
The Oklahoma City Thunder found out the hard way that Westbrook needs to be in a five-out system that frees up the paint. Steven Adams, a non-spacing big, jammed up Westbrook’s driving lanes as Portland made sure that Westbrook saw multiple defenders in front of him at every turn in the playoffs.
In the regular season, when teams don’t have nearly as much time to scout and scheme as they do come playoff time, Westbrook can get by simply on his sheer athleticism. Westbrook and Adams lineups scored a healthy 112.9 points per 100 possessions last regular season, per NBA stats. In the postseason, that figure plummeted to 104.9 and the Thunder got waved off by Damian Lillard. The previous season, similar story: 122.2 offensive rating with that duo in the 2017-18 regular season, but down to 102.8 in the playoffs.
The Rockets didn’t want to risk that happening again. Like Adams, Capela is a paint-dwelling big who can get played off the floor in crunchtime. Covington, a long-time darling of the analytics community, can space the floor on the wings and make sure that Westbrook’s defender sits alone on an island with no one behind him.
As a 6-foot-7 defensive-minded wing, Covington is a Trevor Ariza, James Posey type -- a guy who’s never going to blow you away with his box score stats but fits perfectly next to stars. The Rockets are well aware that Covington’s team’s point differential has been better when he’s on the floor compared to when he’s on the bench for each of the six seasons in the NBA. Covington isn’t a dribble-drive guy, but next to Westbrook and Harden, there may not be much air in the ball left anyway.
In some ways, this was a necessary move once the Rockets acquired Westbrook. I really didn’t like the Westbrook trade from the start; he’s probably the worst high-volume 3-point shooter of all-time and plays in a system predicated on efficient 3-point shooting. To me, Westbrook’s uptempo attack would be exposed in the playoffs when the game slows down. Spreading the floor with Covington, a career 36 percent shooter from deep, will help decongest the paint and raise the ceiling on Westbrook’s game.
I liked what all four teams did in this trade, but to me, the Rockets fared out best, with a little help from their executive farm system. You rarely see deals this size -- per ESPN, it’s the most players involved in a trade since a 2000 Patrick Ewing deal that was so long ago it involved Vernon Maxwell -- because it isn’t easy for executives to have intimate knowledge of rival teams’ wants, needs and negotiation styles.
But it helped grease the wheels that three of the architects involved -- Denver GM Arturas Karnisovas, Houston GM Daryl Morey and Minnesota president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas -- used to work together in the Rockets front office from 2008 to 2013.
Houston will likely be on the lookout for a center on the buyout market. Asking the 6-foot-6 P.J. Tucker to do that full-time is a, um, tall order. Don’t be surprised if the Rockets land a veteran like Charlotte big man Marvin Williams on the buyout market. Or, if they’re lucky, Tristan Thompson.
They’re 44-7. The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t do anything. Neither did Toronto or Boston. Philly added Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III, but Thursday’s romp showed they need more than that. And the Bucks aren’t exactly shaking in their boots now that the Clippers added Marcus Morris.
If the Heat were able to snag Danilo Gallinari, the Bucks may have been sweating right now. But Iguodala is too much of a question mark to strike fear into the Bucks, who have the seventh-highest net rating in NBA history this far into the season. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are firmly in the driver’s seat and the road ahead didn’t get any bumpier.
The 25-year-old Capela makes more sense on the youthful Hawks than the title-hunting Rockets. I worried about Capela’s health when it came to the Rockets’ championship window, but he can develop on a more patient timeline next to All-Star starter Trae Young. Capela is a non-shooting big who has missed seven games this season with foot problems and relies on his hops to make an impact on both ends.
Foot problems with non-shooting bigs will make Hawks fans queasy, but in Atlanta, he can rest his heel injury and properly rehab without putting pressure on himself to return too soon for a title quest.
John Collins and Capela aren’t a lock-and-key fit, though it should help matters that Collins has flashed some impressive range this season, shooting 36 percent from deep, mostly at the top of the key. Collins has added a nice pick-and-pop game to complement his devastating alley-oop threat. He’ll find himself in the P.J. Tucker role in the corners more often, but the Hawks can play around a bit in the second half of the season before Collins’ extension talks this summer.
And we might not see much Collins and Capela this season. By trading Jabari Parker and Alex Len for former Hawks center Dewayne Dedmon (under contract through 2021-22) and two second-round picks, the Hawks acquired some insurance both now and in the future in case Capela’s foot problems prove to be more serious. Len’s presence was more redundant with Capela around, but Dedmon’s floor-spacing ability that he showed in his previous stint with Atlanta should be more useful next to the rim-running Collins.
There was some talk that the Hawks were interested in Andre Drummond at the deadline, but Capela provides much more value on his contract. After this season, Capela is due $55.6 million over the next three seasons, for an average $18.7 million. Given the fact that Drummond’s market only netted a second-round pick at the deadline, I’d assume Drummond would be picking up his $28.8 million player option this summer for next season. To me, Capela is a better fit defensively, even with the worries about his health.
Los Angeles Clippers
I like the addition of Marcus Morris, especially on the price that they got him -- Moe Harkless and a 2020 first-round pick. Not only does Morris add to the Clippers’ core of talented wings, but they kept him away from their Staples Center roommates in purple and gold. That’s not nothing.
In an ironic twist, I think there’s a tiny chance he could be this year’s Tobias Harris -- a former No. 1 option big wing who struggles to find his role on a contender midseason. Last year, it was the Clippers who dealt Harris (for a far tastier haul), and now, they’re adding Morris, who is shooting 43.9 percent from 3-point land -- way over his previous career rate of 36 percent. Even if he regresses a bit, Morris will be another body to throw at LeBron James and keep Kawhi Leonard and Paul George fresh for the long haul. All things considered, the Clippers have to feel good about their work on Thursday.
Something went wrong here. It had to have. A Tristan Thompson deal fell through at the last minute, right? The Cavs couldn’t possibly think that Kevin Love, Drummond and Thompson can play in the same frontcourt. Right???
I don’t know what the Cavs are doing with Thompson. According to Yahoo! Sports’ and friend of the program Chris Haynes, Thompson is not a buyout candidate. As of now. That may change. But this is one of the more befuddling transactions of the season. Perhaps the Cavs thought that a measly second-round pick was too good to pass up for Drummond. But in that case, why couldn’t they find a taker for Thompson?
Now, the Cavs have potentially two unhappy veterans in Thompson and Love. If there’s a plan in place, I don’t see it. But hey, championship banners fly forever.
2020 free agents
Of all the parties involved at the trade deadline, Brandon Ingram, Andre Drummond and DeMar DeRozan could be the most disappointed of all. Cap space evaporated on Thursday. Atlanta did have two max slots, but now it only has one after its deadline moves. Memphis decided to chew up all its cap space in the deal with Miami to get Justise Winslow. If Cleveland doesn’t re-sign Drummond, where does he get his big payday? DeMar DeRozan may just pick up his player option for $28.8 million next season rather than test the market.
As of now, only five teams project to have cap space this summer, per salary cap guru Jeff Siegel. Of those, only three will have max slots -- Atlanta, New York and Detroit. There will be some sign-and-trade options that can open up the market for some of these guys, but Draymond Green, Buddy Hield and Eric Gordon were wise to lock in extensions when they did.
Golden State Warriors
As I wrote in an expanded piece on Thursday, I’m not a huge fan of the Andrew Wiggins deal, but I get the allure of Wiggins. Many doubted keeping Klay Thompson over Kevin Love in 2014, and that turned out pretty good for the Warriors.
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