Secret Guard-en: The story of Luka Doncic's undercover Steph Curry workout

Secret Guard-en: The story of Luka Doncic's undercover Steph Curry workout

The curtains were drawn so no one could peek into the Hub 925 gym 20 miles east of Oracle Arena. Outside of a handful of select staffers in the room, no one knew about this secret workout in late August.

This was the day that Stephen Curry would train with Luka Doncic, perhaps the most hyped European prospect ever. There was no live stream on Instagram, no curated House of Highlights sizzle reel. 

Doncic’s agent, Bill Duffy, wanted to keep it quiet. Only a small circle -- maybe a dozen people -- attended, but hardly anyone outside that Pleasanton, Calif., gym had a clue that the two-time MVP was going to work out with the Slovenian prodigy. It was so hush-hush that not even Mavericks owner Mark Cuban knew about it.

“For me, I just wanted him to be exposed to the excellence of Steph,” Duffy told “Not just Steph’s skill, but appreciating the work that goes into it.”

Curry had already scheduled a workout, led by his longtime trainer Brandon Payne of Accelerate Basketball, with high school phenom Jalen Green, who could be the No. 1 prospect in the class of 2020. After a call from Duffy, Payne made a slight change of plans.

Luka is going to be in town for a day or two. Can he join Steph for a workout? 

Of course, Payne told him, but there was something Duffy thought Payne should know. 

“Hey, you know, he’s never really worked out like this before,” Duffy told Payne over the phone. “All of this is going to be new to him. Be patient with him.”

As a teenager, Doncic had already dominated the pro leagues in Europe, earning both the EuroLeague MVP and ACB MVP in 2018, but he’d never worked out with a player of Curry’s caliber. He had done shooting sessions with shot guru Mike Penberthy, now with the New Orleans Pelicans. But nothing quite like what he was about to experience.

In NBA circles, Curry’s workouts are the stuff of legend. How else does one go from Davidson to the NBA’s first unanimous MVP?

And so, Doncic tried Curry’s workout, which was supposed to last an hour. It lasted three.

“Luka,” Payne says now after working with Doncic up close, “is a basketball savant.”

* * *

It’s a Friday afternoon in Fort Mill, SC., at Payne’s training gym just outside of Curry’s hometown of Charlotte. Curry’s longtime trainer is cackling as the film begins. 

“He’s f’ing huge,” Payne says of Doncic, who dwarfs Curry on the screen. “Luka is a big dude. He’s 6-8, easy. Big, big kid.”

The third round of 2019 All-Star voting returns had just come in and the big kid had widened his lead over Curry as the second-most popular player in the Western Conference (LeBron James is still first). Doncic, the only rookie among the top-40 vote-getters, received more love from voters than Curry, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.

In the roughly seven months since the Mavericks traded up to pick him No. 3 overall in the 2018 NBA draft, Doncic has become a cult-like figure in league circles. His LeBron-like rookie averages of 19.9 points, 5.3 assists and 6.1 free throw attempts helped certify his starpower. The Ringer’s hypnotic #HalleLuka anthem only added to his aura.

In August, Payne saw some of these clues firsthand. He invited me to his film room to show me just before his flight to Los Angeles to launch Curry’s Underrated tour. He insisted that I see how far Doncic has come in just five months.

Payne has micromanaged Curry’s every movement using tools like strobe-light glasses, tennis balls and FitLight training bulbs that operate like traffic signals. He even trained Curry’s breathing patterns. Some have called him a basketball version of J.K. Simmons’ character from Whiplash. 

Not my tempo. 

Duffy felt Doncic would benefit from seeing what life is like at the mountaintop.

“I wanted to show him that someone at that level can take instruction too, be corrected,” Duffy said. “Brandon is up here telling Steph, do this, don’t do that, correcting him. I think someone like Luka, was like, ‘Woah -- Steph is top 2-3 players in basketball and he has someone pushing him to be the best he can be?’ To be exposed to that, was special.”

On the film, Payne is belting out dribble-and-shoot orders to both Curry and Doncic. One dribble, side step 2. One dribble, escape 3, coming back the other way! Side step 2, mirrored footwork, escape 3. Side step 2, come back, one dribble, escape 3. 

“These are really difficult concepts,” Payne says. “When you’re Stephen, these are difficult concepts. This wasn’t a BS workout. This was a real I-have-something-that-I-have-to-get-done-with-Stephen workout. To be thrown into that and respond as well as he did, it was impressive.”

This particular drill took Curry three minutes flat to complete. His shots were flawless, barely grazing the rim. Doncic, trying to keep up with the commands and pace, took nine minutes and forty-eight seconds. (Doncic is also still learning English, his fourth language.)

“That’s a lot of information coming at him at once, that’s tough,” Payne says. “My terminology runs deep. The words aren’t complex. But when you start putting together combinations, it’s … tough.”

At one point during the workout, Doncic is seen dribbling up the court with two basketballs, a standard drill here in the States. Doncic is struggling. Jalen Green and Curry are just about lapping him. Doncic sticks out his tongue and laughs at it all. He does this a lot when he lags behind. I take this as a sign of Doncic’s self-awareness and his love for the game.

Payne nods. “Stephen’s like that, too.” 

Then Payne grows serious again. 

“Wait, back that up,” Payne says to his assistant at the controls. She rewinds and hits play. 

“You see Luka’s closed lips, then you see his tongue out?” Payne asks me.

Yes, he’s a kid having fun. He’s 19 years old.

“That’s the first sign of neurological overload,” Payne corrects me. “Like, it’s too much for a player. He couldn’t breathe because his mouth is closed.”

He tells me to watch Curry -- note his open mouth as he dribbles down the floor, like the grille on the nose of a Ferrari, cooling the engine.

“So,” Payne explains, “those are the things I’m looking for.”

Something I’ve never considered: How good will Doncic be when he learns how to breathe properly?

Doncic was a tad beefy during this workout. He had just taken a month off to recover from a grueling year in Europe that saw him play about 90 games. Says Duffy: “We had to rest him.” 

Payne estimates that Doncic has already shed 10 to 15 pounds this season, but the rookie of the year frontrunner is still far from slim. Listed at 218 pounds, Doncic’s conditioning was a point of pre-draft contention. What those people didn’t realize was how he uses his weight as a weapon. Doncic lulls you into thinking he can’t move quickly at his size before finishing opponents off. 

“Everyone’s like, he’s got this stepback,” Payne says. “Yeah, he’s got a stepback, but you’re not looking at how he’s slowing them down before that stepback. You fall asleep, your feet die and then all of a sudden, he hits you with this real hard stepback. It’s so easy for him because he’s big and strong. His mechanics are really good, too.”

The week before the Curry workout, Doncic had spent time assessing and training his biomechanics at P3 Sports Science lab in Santa Barbara. They found that his deceleration abilities -- to figuratively go from 60-to-zero -- are some of the best they’ve ever seen among hundreds of pro athletes. (Doncic has visited P3 annually since he was 15 years old).

“He’s a gamer,” Payne says. “I have never seen anybody control the defender with change of pace the way he does. He takes control of you. You don’t control him. He controls you. He just has a touch and feel that you can’t teach.”

Beyond his physical attributes, Payne won’t stop talking about Doncic’s palpable enthusiasm for the game and how that propelled him through Curry’s relentless shot-making. Doncic did break out giggling several times during the grueling workout, partly in awe of Curry’s power and partly in making light of his own struggles. 

By the end of the three hours, he was hanging with Curry shot-for-shot. 

“Stephen has been working out with me as long as Luka has been playing basketball,” Payne says. “Stephen goes on these runs where he’s not human. I can’t imagine what it’d be like to be in that workout. It’s almost like when Stephen touches the rim, we don’t count it as a make.”

After the first hour of nonstop shooting and dribbling drills, Doncic wanted more. After hour two, Payne offered to end the workout. Doncic waved him off. More. After three hours, they went upstairs to lift.

“He’s smiling, laughing, having a good time,” Payne says. “I think he’s just having a good time doing it. He felt challenged. Stephen just did it. Now, I want to beat him.”

Footage from the August workout is a study in contrasts. Curry is a 30-year-old robot of precision and efficiency. Doncic, on the other hand, seems like a 19-year-old lump of clay -- really high-quality clay. And that’s the scary part.

“His footwork now is incredible, it’s amazing,” Payne says. “At the end of games? It is incredible. But if you think about it, it’s completely unrefined. Think about how good he’s going to be if he does get this stuff.”

* * *

It’s admittedly hard to watch Curry and Doncic play basketball next to each other and not immediately want to jump in a time machine. Is this what Doncic will look like in a decade? Curry is a model of efficiency both in his movement and shooting percentages. He hardly missed during the entire workout and never lost control of the ball. Doncic, however, was a work in progress. A dribble off his foot here, an errant jumper there. But after just a few repetitions, Doncic would become shockingly proficient, a trait that’s been evident during his first season in the league. 

Doncic has scored 74 points in 76 minutes of clutch situations this season while shooting 51 percent in these close-and-late situations. After adjusting for pace, Doncic is scoring 46.8 per 100 possessions in the clutch, the ninth-highest rate in the NBA. He once went on an 11-0 run down the stretch to beat the Houston Rockets, prompting Mavs coach Rick Carlisle to tell ESPN, “It’s pretty clear he’s got a flair for the moment. He’s unafraid.” 

Take for instance the “3-2-1 Perfect” drill, which Payne purposefully picked as one of the last drills to simulate end-of-game fatigue. Make three shots in a row from five different spots around the halfcourt. Then, come back and make two in a row at the same five spots in reverse order. Then, finish with a perfect five-for-five at one spot. The drill doesn’t end until the player makes the five straight.

“Luka’s quads are on fire right now,” Payne says watching Doncic labor through the drill. 

On the film, Payne could be seen saying something to Doncic. What’d he say?

“I just asked him if he wants to quit,” Payne says. “He said no. Nine minutes is a long time to be shooting and doing hard dribbles non-stop. 

“Damn this was hard. This was real hard, now that I’m watching it.”

Doncic hits the five and smiles, just like he did in December after hitting an impossible,  buzzer-beating, over-the-backboard corner 3 against Portland to send it into overtime. This ability to perform fatigued and under pressure has fueled Doncic throughout his rookie season. When the moments are biggest, when the legs are their most tired, he rises to the occasion, usually with a grin. 

* * *

There’s one moment during the film where Payne pauses. He wants to make sure I pay attention. Curry pulls Doncic aside and starts coaching him up, directing him where to go and helping him understand the drill. 

“That’s the first time I’ve ever seen Stephen step into that mentor role in the middle of a workout,” Payne tells me. “That’s the first time.”

Curry does this at camps with youngsters, but never with a pro. Maybe Curry sees that Doncic is both.

Doncic is absorbing the NBA life and thriving. Where other top rookies like Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Trae Young have seen their scoring opportunities plateau, Doncic has raised his usage rate in each month, shouldering more and more of Dallas’ scoring load. In October, he ranked 67th in usage rate, per tracking. But in January, his usage rate ranks 15th, ahead of stars like Curry, Damian Lillard and Kawhi Leonard. Doncic is only a rookie by definition.

“He’s made for this,” Duffy says of Doncic. “I don’t know what the ceiling is. Does Steph Curry put a ceiling on himself? Does Steve Nash? Kobe Bryant? Luka is definitely in that echelon.”

Cuban agrees, we’re just seeing the beginning.

“The best part of Luka, beyond how much fun he has, is that he has a lot of places he can improve his game,” Cuban says. “And he will work on them all.”

At the Accelerate offices outside Charlotte, Payne looks at his watch and sees he’s late for the airport. He quickly shows me a spreadsheet where they’re tracking every one of Doncic’s shots and pairing it with the drills he did in August. Doncic’s shooting percentages on Escape Dribbles, Wing Curl 2s, Slide and Read, all listed. Each shot has a link to both the in-game video and the workout video from August.

“I could watch this stuff all day,” Payne says as he grabs his bags. “There’s a whole lot of meat left on that bone, man. A whole lot.”

Is Rockets' James Harden really having the best scoring season ever?

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Is Rockets' James Harden really having the best scoring season ever?

James Harden is doing some crazy stuff this season. The former Sixth Man of the Year is nearly averaging an unfathomable 40 points per game. He just scored 60 points in a little more than 30 minutes of game action and hasn’t scored fewer than 25 points in a game since opening night. Defenses are now trying to trap him before halfcourt.

Is he the best scorer of this generation? Probably. Three straight scoring titles would cement that status.

But is he the best scorer ever? Well, that gets a little more complicated. We could simply list the best scoring seasons by points per game and leave it at that. But as you’ll see below, that would be short-sighted.

Why? Let’s start at the basics.

Harden is currently averaging 39.5 points per game. If it holds, that would rank third all-time on the scoring leaderboard for a season. The only name above him? Wilt Chamberlain, who of course sees your 40 points per game and raises you 50.

Case closed. Chamberlain is the best scorer ever, with the best scoring season ever, right? 

Not so fast. Let’s zoom out and look at the top 20 scoring seasons in NBA history. 

Notice anything odd? Hint: Look at the season column. Yeah, that’s a lot of of the 1960s. Eleven of the top 20 scoring seasons of all time came within an eight-year span. What’s up with that? 

Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor and Rick Barry were incredible scorers, to be sure. But it has to be mentioned that they played in an era where teams regularly took over 100 shots per game. In an eight-team league playing at a crazy-fast pace, and in which Chamberlain was one of three 7-footers playing in the league, the NBA was ripe for an outlier season. 

Though we didn’t have a complete picture in the box score (turnovers didn’t become an official stat until 1973-74), we can get a pretty good idea of how “fast” the league was in that season by using Basketball Reference’s best estimates. We find that Chamberlain’s team, the Philadelphia Warriors, played a whopping 131.1 possessions per game, the fastest of the eight teams. The slowest team, the Chicago Packers, played at 122.9 possessions per game. Even taken as a ballpark figure, that’s a Formula 1 race car compared to the speed of the modern era.

If you thought today’s pace-and-space era was fast, the back-and-forth NBA of the 1960’s leaves them in the dust. The fastest team this season, according to Basketball Reference tracking, is the Washington Wizards and they churn out 105.2 possessions per game. To put it in perspective, the slowest team in 1961-62 played almost 18 additional possessions per game than today’s fastest team.

That’s almost an entire quarter’s worth of extra hoops in which to rack up points. You might be asking yourself, “Well, what what happens when we take that same top 20 and adjust for pace?” 

Good question! I tweaked the per-game numbers by normalizing it to a 100-possession environment. Players that played on a slow team (below 100 possessions per game) will get a boost and players that played on a fast team (above 100 possessions) will have their numbers fall back down to Earth a bit. 

After making this adjustment, we get an entirely new leaderboard. Lakers fans, you might want to sit down for this one.

Holy, Kobe Bean Bryant! After adjusting for pace, Bryant’s 2005-06 campaign floats to the top of the list, up from his previous spot of 11th-best. It’s one thing to average 35.4 points per game, but it’s another to do it while playing at a snail’s pace. In Phil Jackson’s return to the Staples Center bench after a one-year hiatus, the Lakers barely cleared 90 possessions per game, over 40 fewer possessions per game than Chamberlain’s record-holding ‘61-62 campaign.

A comparison between Bryant’s 81-point game and Chamberlain’s 100-point game -- the two highest-scoring individual performances in NBA history -- further illustrates the difference in eras and playing styles. In Chamberlain’s infamous 100-point outing, the Warriors fired up 118 field goal attempts, which is 30 more scoring opportunities than the Lakers had when Bryant went for 81. (Chamberlain’s Warriors scored 169 points in that game, which was only the sixth-highest scoring game in NBA history at the time. Again: Pace.)

Bryant has always been considered one of the best scorers of all-time, but he happened to rule during the NBA’s Deadball Era, in which point totals slumped across the board. The 2004 Lakers scored 68 points in an entire Finals game for crying out loud. Under the terms of our exercise, Bryant would average an extra 4.4 points per game simply by adjusting to a pace of 100 possessions per game. 

And Harden? He’s still near the top of the list. His current season is docked 1.8 points per game because the Houston Rockets have stepped on the accelerator this season with Russell Westbrook on board. The Rockets’ pace, according to Basketball Reference tracking, sits at 104.9 this season, up from 97.9 last season with Chris Paul running the point. By this measure, Harden’s season is almost a mirror image of last season’s scoring campaign.

More importantly, even through this new lens, Harden’s ‘19-20 scoring binge is still not superior to Chamberlain’s monster '61-62 season, but the gap is smaller. Once we put the era’s pace into context, Harden and Chamberlain are less than one point per game apart. If Harden’s season average surges to 40.3 points per game, that would put him on par with Chamberlain in adjusted points per game. (He’d need to finish at 40.6 and 40.8 raw points per game to catch Jordan and Bryant, respectively).

Is Harden having one of the best scoring seasons ever? Most definitely. It’s right up there with the legendary scorers in NBA history. If he starts regularly putting up 42 points a night in this environment, he’d have the best scoring season ever in my book -- better than Wilt’s 50.4 season -- but it’s hard to see Harden pulling that off. Then again, no one saw a Sixth Man of the Year averaging nearly 40 points per game, either.

Follow me on Twitter (@TomHaberstroh), and bookmark for my latest stories and videos and subscribe to the Habershow podcast.

Can Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid handle life as a guard?

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Can Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid handle life as a guard?

Karl-Anthony Towns held the ball while Rudy Gobert, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year, guarded him tightly. The pair of 7-footers weren’t wrestling in the paint like traditional centers would. On this late November night, they were 25 feet away from the basket, and Towns was stuck.

Enter Jeff Teague, the Timberwolves’ nominal point guard. He shuffled over to Towns and instead of asking for the ball, the 6-foot-3 ball-handler set a screen -- that’s right, set a screen -- for the 7-foot center. That misdirection prompted another. Using the pick would have meant Towns had to dribble to his right in the direction of his dominant hand. Instead, Towns juked right-to-left, dribbled hard past the arc with his opposite hand and abruptly shifted into reverse for a stepback 3-pointer, displaying the quick footwork of a ballerina set in fast-forward.

“Karl is the modern-day NBA big,” said Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas on the latest Habershow podcast. “He was one of the major reasons, if not the major reason why I took this job.”

Towns is currently taking more 3-pointers and making a higher percentage of those shots than Stephen Curry did in his 2014-15 MVP season. But it’s not just the shooting that jumps off the page. Watch the NBA on any given night and you’ll witness seven-footers like Towns running pick-and-rolls, shooting 3-pointers and zipping around the floor like they’re six-footers. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose towering dimensions appear to be designed in an NBA laboratory, has pounded out more dribbles this season than Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, per player tracking data. LeBron James is the size of Karl Malone and leads the NBA in assists. Luka Doncic, behind James on the assist leaderboard, stands 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds, roughly the same as Xavier McDaniel -- only heavier.

Other skilled giants like Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis often play outside-in, not inside-out. It’s clear that the guardification of NBA bigs has taken over the sport. What’s not clear is whether their enormous bodies can handle it.

* * *

Athletes around the world are bigger, faster and stronger than previous generations. Last month, Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya ran a sub-2-hour marathon, clocking in four minutes faster than the world record set a decade ago. The average weight of NFL offensive linemen in the 1970s was 249 pounds compared to today’s weigh-in of 315 pounds. In 1999, Tim Isaac became the first man to bench press over 800 pounds (802 to be exact). Today, that record is 1,102 pounds, belonging to a man named Tiny Meeker.

Oddly enough, the NBA hasn’t gotten appreciably bigger or taller, on average. The average NBA player, according to Basketball Reference tracking, is actually an inch shorter and seven pounds lighter than they were in 2010-11. But NBA players have gotten markedly more athletic, allowing giants to move like hummingbirds. 

In the eyes of Dr. Marcus Elliott, the load management conversation has skipped over this critical piece of the puzzle. The founder of P3 Peak Performance labs in Santa Barbara, Calif., Elliot and his sports science team are at the core of a global movement trying to keep professional athletes healthy. What Elliott sees from his vantage point is a fundamental shift in how NBA players are moving.

“The game has just gotten so much faster and more athletic,” Elliott says. “You can’t do apples to apples to the NBA 20 years ago.”

Elliott isn’t basing his opinion on anecdotal evidence. Over the past decade, the P3 staff has assessed the biomechanics of hundreds of NBA players -- 58 percent of the players on opening-night rosters, P3 says -- and one trend keeps popping up. 

“All of the athletes are improving their athleticism, but the rate that our bigs are improving is much faster than the guards and perimeter players,” Elliott says.

As part of the biomechanical assessments that P3 delivers to its NBA clientele, P3 leads off with an “Athleticism” score that measures an athlete’s ability to move vertically and laterally. Recently, P3 crunched the numbers and analyzed how these scores have changed over time for two groups: “bigs” and guards/wings. Before 2016, the average “big” received an Athleticism score of 62. Since 2016, however, the average big’s Athleticism score jumped to 69, an increase of seven points. Over the same window, guards and wings have improved their Athleticism score by just three points, less than half that of their towering teammates.

“A decade ago, if we had a 7-foot guy come in that had decent skills, that’s an NBA player,” says Elliott. “Now, if we have a 7-foot guy who comes in and he’s not athletic, we don’t know if we have an NBA player.”

Elliott remembers when Andre Drummond came into P3’s lab several years ago and shocked the staff with his other-worldly metrics. They analyzed his movements in every direction and his scores were remarkably consistent with NBA athletes who weighed 100 pounds lighter than him. He was, in essence, a big who moved like a guard.

“Drummond was a unicorn, but there are a lot more of these unicorns now,” Elliott says. “They’re not really unicorns anymore.”

Before Drummond, it was Derrick Favors, who at one point ranked near the top of P3’s leaderboards in just about every category.

“Pretty athletic big that we got in 10 years ago,” Elliott says of Favors. “These guys stood out. Now, it’s status quo. We expect them to be athletic and move laterally and be overall big movers. They were the exception 10 years ago.”

Now, it’s the rule.

* * *

What is driving the athletic surge in tall players? Elliott points to two factors: the increasingly global nature of the NBA and sheer economics that have incentivized players to pay closer attention to training.

As the NBA sets up academies in India and Africa, the selection pool of NBA athletes is ever-expanding. The league’s international bridges were evident when Antetokounmpo and Doncic trained together this offseason at P3’s sports science lab. Antetokounmpo, or “The Greek Freak,” is the son of Nigerian immigrants and a native of Athens. Doncic, meanwhile, is a 6-foot-7 point guard from Slovenia and the son of a professional basketball player who was born in a small town on the Solvenian-Italian border with a knack for churning out pro soccer players. If not for the international explosion of the sport, it’s entirely possible this season’s two MVP frontrunners could have put the ball to their foot rather than in their hand.

With international exposure of the league growing and TV deals in China, Europe and North America leading to a salary cap boom, NBA players are richer than ever. The average NBA player makes $7.7 million compared to $2.9 million in 2000, while the top NBA salary is Stephen Curry’s $40.2 million compared against Shaquille O’Neal’s $17.1 million in 1999-00. The increased wages make the NBA an even more desirable goal for the best athletes in the world, while also giving the ones that do make it more resources to sharpen their athleticism. The record income then trickles to secondary trainers, nutritionists and chefs, whose primary jobs are to keep players in top shape. 

“The overall selection pool has gotten so much bigger and the incentive to have a career is so much bigger,” Elliott says.

That career is also more demanding on the body. After hovering around 90 possessions per game for much of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, league-wide pace this season exceeded 100 possessions per game for the first time since 1988-89. The rise of the 3-pointer and emphasis on pick-and-roll defense has required bigs to be more perimeter-oriented. 

“When we started assessing NBA players back in 2009, if you asked most NBA bigs, what they wanted to improve, 10 out of 10 would say their vertical jump,” Elliott says. “The majority of bigs we get in now say they want their lateral movement to improve.”

That mobility comes at a cost. To Elliott, the constant chatter about load management and minutes restrictions overlooks a key point: what’s happening in those minutes. Players are objectively covering more ground in today’s NBA than in years past. Last season, players collectively ran 3,139 more miles than they did in 2013-14 despite the season length and game regulation time being held constant.

But Elliott thinks that only scratches the surface.

“That’s a pretty big change,” Elliott says, “but I really think where you’re going to really see the load of these guys is these ballistic accelerations, both negative and positive,” Elliott says. “How fast they stop, how fast they change direction, how fast they go. It’s these super high intensity stop-and-go’s that are really destructive.”

* * *

As a leader in the space, Elliott has grown tired of the complaints about load management. He jokes that it’s become a dirty phrase now. 

The NBA’s most influential media voice, Charles Barkley, hates it. Michael Jordan reportedly told his Hornets players they’re paid to play 82 games. When asked if rookie R.J. Barrett was being overworked, New York Knicks head coach David Fizdale said “we gotta get off this load management crap” and referenced Latrell Sprewell averaging 42 minutes per game one season (Sprewell averaged 43.1 in 1993-94).

To Elliott, the focus on minutes misses the point. 

“There’s this constant back and forth about ‘when we played …’ ‘when we played,’” Elliot says. “I don’t think that people have given enough attention to how different the game is compared to when they played 20 years ago. These athletes are so much more ballistic and across the board more athletic. These are amazing systems driving super, super hard.”

The pace-and-space era of the NBA is putting increased demands on the bigger athletes. To Elliott, taller players face more injury risk simply because their bodies haven’t been optimized for movement patterns. A 7-footer can get by at younger levels simply by being tall, rather than being an efficient mover. But once they get in the NBA, those movement patterns can catch up to them.

“I still think that NBA athletes are a ways away from being optimized,” Elliott says. “We don’t get many athletes that have as much slack in their system as NBA athletes do. That’s one of the reasons that the game is going to get that much more powerful and more ballistic. NBA players have more slack in their physical development in almost all the professional athletes that we assess.”

Elliott says that track athletes that come through P3 are at 99 percent of where they could be athletically, leaving only 1 percent of space to improve, or “slack” as he calls it. Each percentage point can be the difference between college and Olympian grade. “They don’t make it out of high school at 90 percent.”

NBA players, on the other hand, aren’t nearly as mechanically optimized, settling in at typically 80 percent in his view. “It’s still a skill-dominant sport,” Elliot says.

The slack can be costly. Elliott recently presented new research at Harvard Medical School that studied the biomechanics of 481 NBA subjects and used granular kinetic data to predict whether a player would have a significant knee injury (ACL, MCL and meniscus) that would require surgery in the next year. The P3 machine-learning algorithm was able to predict 70 percent of those major knee injuries simply by looking at how a player moves.

“The load being placed on them is so close to what they’ll be able to manage,” Elliott says, “If they have a screw loose, something probably breaks.”

Elliot wouldn’t reveal the names of his NBA subjects in the study. But it’s safe to say that high-profile knee injuries in recent years to DeMarcus Cousins (torn ACL), Kristaps Porzingis (torn ACL) and Zion Williamson (torn meniscus) were likely due, in part, to some underlying breakdown in the kinetic chain -- whether it was how aligned joints were when the player landed or the balance of force between right-to-left and left-to-right. Simply put, injuries are not 100 percent a product of bad luck.

“Doesn’t matter what size your engine is, if your brakes and suspension are crap, you’re toast,” says P3’s director of biomechanics, Eric Leidersdorf, who has the build of a high school soccer player. “You can have an engine like mine or an engine like Zion Williamson’s, it won’t matter at that point.”

For years, Elliott has wanted to get LeBron James in his P3 facility, just to witness the kinematic system that’s allowed James to perform at this level for so long. Now officially listed at 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, James is the ultimate guard in a big’s body. In his age-35 season, James is averaging a career-high 11 assists per game while averaging 25.6 points and 7.4 rebounds. His durability is the stuff of legend, never missing more than 10 games in any stretch of his career until last season when he suffered a groin injury on Christmas. (James was playing on by far the fastest team of his career, pace-wise). 

But more important than genetics, James famously invests seven figures per year on body optimization strategies and personally employs a staff that includes a professional biomechanist, multiple chefs and masseuses. He regularly uses cryotherapy, hyberbaric chambers and NormaTec recovery sleeves to stay healthy.

It’s a lesson that Elliott hopes will inspire other premiere athletes to take extra care of their bodies, especially the bigs that have progressed largely because of their size.

“The speed of the game and the load on these players, something has to give,” Elliott says. “It’s a game that’s so hard on these players’ systems, playing 82 games at this speed that it’s played now, it’s so hard on these guys’ systems. When mechanics are messed up, they’re not going to survive.”

Elliott doesn’t see the NBA slowing down anytime soon. When asked what kind of impact those ramped-up velocities will have on the largest of human bodies, Elliott isn’t so sure.

 “I don’t know long-term,” Elliot says, “what it’s going to do.”

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