A month ago, league executives were curious: Does Fred Hoiberg’s firing in Chicago mean Tom Thibodeau’s days in Minnesota are numbered?
Minnesota owner Glen Taylor, as Thibodeau’s boss, was the only one could answer that truthfully. At the time, a Hoiberg-Wolves reunion seemed far-fetched. After a long, drawn-out saga, Jimmy Butler was finally traded to the Philadelphia 76ers. The move appeared to buy Thibodeau time to prove he could turn things around with newcomers Robert Covington and Dario Saric.
But after 27 games without Butler, Taylor apparently had seen enough. Thibodeau was let go as both coach and president of basketball operations on Sunday. The latter wasn’t a huge surprise; Thibodeau seemed hell-bent on reassembling Bulls’ teams of the past (see: Butler, Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson, Luol Deng, Aaron Brooks and John Lucas III). Alas, the Thibodeau era in Minnesota is over after less than three years.
The firing came at a puzzling time. Forget the fact that on Sunday night the Timberwolves had just pummeled the Los Angeles Lakers, a team in the thick of the West playoff race. The real story here is that the Wolves had finally become a Thibodeau team. They ranked 10th in defensive rating since trading Butler, a fact that surprised many across the league who were expecting Butler’s defensive impact to leave a crater (Covington, it turns out, is still underrated). While the team’s offense also looked more stable without Butler, the emergence of Karl-Anthony Towns as a defensive anchor stood out.
In part because of Towns, the Minnesota head coaching gig remains still incredibly appealing. With Towns as the face of the team following Butler’s departure, the Timberwolves have gone an impressive 15-12 in the Western Conference. In those 27 games, the Kentucky product has averaged 23.3 points, 13.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.9 blocks per game. The last player to post at least those numbers for a full season? Minnesota’s Kevin Garnett in 2003-04, per Basketball-Reference.com tracking. Garnett needed 39.4 minutes per game to average those numbers, but Towns is racking up those stats in just 33.4 minutes per game. Credit to Thibodeau for shaving his minutes from 37.0 per game in 2016-17 down to 35.6 last season and then again to 33.4 this year. It’s also worth noting Towns still hasn’t missed a game in his NBA career.
Coaches will be lining up to to work with Towns. Andrew Wiggins, on the other hand, may be a critical factor in the search for Thibodeau’s replacement. After Taylor and Thibodeau signed Wiggins to a max contract in 2017, the small forward has regressed offensively and plateaued defensively. When most players improve at this stage of their careers, the 23-year-old has seen his scoring average and true-shooting percentage decline in each of the last two seasons. Say what you want about advanced metrics, but no max player should have a 12.0 PER and negative RPM. Thibodeau couldn’t maximize Wiggins, but perhaps Hoiberg will.
A league source told NBC Sports in December that “Glen loves Fred.” Shortly after Thibodeau was relieved of his duties as both head coach and president of basketball operations for the Wolves on Sunday night, Hoiberg’s name again rose to the surface.
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For a man who was a combined 40 games under .500 in parts of four seasons with the Bulls, Hoiberg certainly has options. He could return to college hoops, where he enjoyed an impressive run as Iowa State head coach. However, most in the NBA expect Hoiberg, who is currently figuring out his future, to be considered for both open gigs in Minnesota, where he worked in the front office as recently as 2010.
Wolves fans and observers also shouldn’t count out Ryan Saunders, a long-time Wolves assistant coach and the son of the late Flip Saunders -- a favorite of Taylor. Flip was the Timberwolves’ coach and president of basketball operations before he lost a battle with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in October 2015. Ryan, 32, stayed on the staff and is now the interim head coach. He could win the gig after all. A league source told NBC Sports that Saunders will receive “a legit crack at it.”
If the Timberwolves feel like Saunders needs more experience before getting the “interim” tag removed, league executives expect former NBA coaches Monty Williams and Frank Vogel to be considered this summer. Another name to watch if the Sacramento Kings decide to go in a different direction: Minnesota native Dave Joerger, who Taylor interviewed in 2014 for the head coaching gig that eventually went to Flip Saunders.
It’s premature to say that the NBA has fully passed Thibodeau by. Because of the post-Butler turnaround, he’ll likely still have a shot to be a head coach again in today’s NBA. But his time in Minnesota is officially up. Maybe Hoiberg replaces him again. After Sunday’s surprising news, we’re one step closer to that becoming a reality.