The Phillies, who have allowed the most home runs, highest slugging percentage and highest OPS in the National League, continue to watch their playoff chances nosedive.
They have just a 2.5 percent chance to win the NL East, according to FanGraphs. Their chances of making the playoffs are 22.6 percent. These forecasts take into account every team’s remaining schedule and the projected rest-of-season performances of every player on every roster.
Things have changed drastically in the span of just five weeks. On May 29, right around Memorial Day, the Phillies had a 44 percent chance to win the division and a 67 percent chance to make the playoffs.
But now the Phils are in third place (see story). Since their high watermark on May 29, they are 11-19 and have lost 10.0 games in the standings to the Braves.
They can reverse some of the negative momentum this weekend at Citi Field against the Mets but it will not be easy. After missing both Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in the four-game series they swept last week, the Phils will face deGrom, Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler this weekend. It’s a daunting task, though the Mets are just 23-28 in games started by their top three starting pitchers.
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