Reevaluating all 17 long-term contracts signed by MLB free agents last offseason

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Looking back one year later with new perspective at all the long-term contracts signed in MLB free agency in the 2019-20 offseason.

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1/18

There were 17 free-agent contracts of at least three years signed last offseason.

How many will there be this offseason with so much financial uncertainty across the sport?

This will be an unusual MLB winter. Teams hemorrhaging money because of the pandemic could sit out the market entirely. It might mean free-agent salaries plummet across the board, or it could mean a few opportunistic teams clean up.

How do those 17 long-term deals from the 2019-20 offseason look a year later? Let’s run through them.

2/18

The Yankees signed Cole to start multiple games in playoff series and win it all for the first time since 2009. They fell to their division rival, the Tampa Bay Rays, in five games in an ALDS Best of 5. 

Cole pitched Games 1 and 5 of the series and did his part, allowing four runs in 11⅓ innings (3.18 ERA) with 17 strikeouts. His opponents hit .167.

Cole was very good in the regular season, though he was homer-prone again. He allowed 14 in 73 innings, a pace of more than 38 over a full 200-inning workload. Given the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, this could persist.

A lot of these deals below can be reassessed with new perspective, but we won't be able to judge Cole's for years. If the Yankees win a World Series during his contract, it will likely go down as a successful deal. The Yankees are just as excited about Cole as they were a year ago when they signed him.

3/18

When last offseason came to a close, the contracts of Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner stuck out as the two megadeals most likely to fail. 

Teams rarely ever live to enjoy it when they pay a starting pitcher for past performance. That's what happened with both veteran pitchers. Strasburg had the most durable season of his 11-year career and pitched historically well in the playoffs in a contract year. He parlayed it into a humongous new deal going into his age-32 season.

He pitched five innings this summer before encountering a nerve issue in his right hand that required carpal tunnel surgery. He is expected back for spring training 2021. It will be difficult for Strasburg to make good on the $240 million deal or to surpass his 2019 season (18-6, 3.32 ERA). 

He's made 30 starts only three times in a decade.

4/18

If you're the Nationals, you probably already wish you re-signed Rendon rather than Strasburg. Really, if given the opportunity, a team should go with the position player the vast majority of the time.

Rendon did what he always does and that's quietly and consistently produce. Protecting Mike Trout in the Angels' lineup, he hit .286/.418/.497 with seven more walks than strikeouts.

The Angels' one-man show turned into a two-man show. They still have a slew of holes on their roster and need pitching as much as or more than any team in baseball.

The thing about Rendon's contract is that he could do this every year and the deal still might not prove worthwhile for the Angels. They probably would have been better off spreading around that $35 million per year. Nothing the Angels do seems to work, other than have Trout.

5/18

It was a promising first year in Philly for Wheeler, who went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts. He had by far the lowest strikeout rate of his career, but this is a case where you actually had to watch him pitch to understand why that's not the warning sign it typically is.

Wheeler was incredibly efficient in 2020. He had a 56% groundball rate compared to 43% in 2019. He generated 13 double-play balls in 11 starts — as many as he had in 31 starts a year ago. 

Wheeler averaged 15.2 pitches per inning, seventh-best in the NL. The rest of the Phillies pitching staff averaged 17.3 pitches per inning.

The Phillies feel much better about their long-term deal with Wheeler than do the teams who paid for the second- and fourth-most expensive starting pitchers last offseason ...

6/18

There were warning signs like diminished velocity, an increase in foul balls and overall hittability in Bumgarner's final days as a Giant. But the D-backs still took the risk and signed Bumgarner to this huge deal.

His fastball was in the mid-80s early in 2020 before he went on the injured list. For the season, it averaged 88.6. 

He went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA in nine starts. He had the lowest strikeout rate of his career. His opponents had a .924 OPS. For reference, the Phillies' bullpen allowed a .946 OPS.

This is not going to go well for the D-backs, who are unlikely to find a taker for much of Bumgarner's money.

7/18

Disappointing summer for Donaldson, who hit .222 with six homers and 11 RBI in 28 games. He missed about a month with a right calf strain. He had two different DL stints in 2018 with strains in his left calf.

The Twins have a dynamic offense with or without Donaldson. Their fanbase is so frustrated by the team's 18-game postseason losing streak that Donaldson could live up to most of this deal with one big playoff moment in a series win over the next three years.

8/18

This was a shrewd signing by the Blue Jays. Ryu was so, so good in 2018 and 2019 when healthy for the Dodgers. He had a 2.21 ERA in 44 starts over those two years and a 2.69 ERA in 12 starts this season with Toronto.

Ryu was better than Cole, Wheeler and every free-agent pitcher who signed last offseason.

His season ended on a sour note, though, with seven runs allowed (three earned) in 1⅔ innings of a playoff loss to the Rays.

9/18

The state of catching across Major League Baseball is so putrid that even a down year from Grandal represents one of the better offensive summers from a backstop.

He hit .230/.351/.422, down from .246/.380/.468 in his All-Star walk year with the Brewers in 2019.

This was a logical deal for the White Sox, who have plenty of high-ceiling young talent and have fellow catcher James McCann eligible for free agency. It filled a hole with a player among the best at his position. Makes sense to splurge at this position with so many good young players not making big money yet.

10/18

Castellanos is polarizing in the baseball community. Some value his offensive package and the Reds clearly did with this deal. Some think he's one of the game's most overrated players because of his bad defense and relatively low OBPs.

Castellanos hit .225/.298/.486 this season with 14 homers and 34 RBI. His 69 strikeouts were fifth-most in the National League.

Castellanos hit his way into this deal with a crazy second half with the 2019 Cubs — .321 batting average, 1.002 OPS, 21 doubles and 16 homers in 225 plate appearances. He had about as many plate appearances this summer with Cincy.

Every dollar that prevents the Reds from re-signing Trevor Bauer is costly. Bauer made far more of a difference for the 2020 Reds than Castellanos or the next player on this list ...

11/18

Moustakas would not get this same deal if he reached free agency this winter.

Remember that one NBA offseason when guys like Evan Turner and Ian Mahinmi received huge contracts because the salary cap just so happened to spike that year? This MLB offseason could be the exact opposite, with free agents snakebit by the circumstances of 2020.

The Moustakas equivalent this winter is not getting $64 million.

12/18

The Padres got strong returns in the first year of this contract. Pomeranz had a 1.45 ERA in 20 appearances with four saves. He struck out 29 in 18⅔ innings. 

He was unscored upon until his final appearance of the regular season on September 25 in San Francisco.

13/18

Keuchel went 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA in 11 starts with the White Sox. You'll recall that two offseasons ago, he couldn't find a team to pay him and eventually signed a one-year deal to pitch about half of a season with the Braves.

In 30 starts since that offseason when the baseball world deemed Keuchel unworthy of a long-term deal, he's gone 14-10 with a 3.12 ERA and has allowed just 18 home runs in 176 innings.

The White Sox are on pace to get far more value out of this contract than the Phillies did by paying Jake Arrieta $75 million over three years to imitate a No. 4/5 starter.

14/18

This was the most expensive reliever contract last offseason. Smith was coming off of two very good years with the Giants, and the Braves needed a late-inning lefty. 

Smith had COVID-19 in July and missed the Braves' first 15 games. It’s taken him until now to round into form. He allowed eight runs in 16 regular-season innings and has made four scoreless appearances in the playoffs.

15/18

The Rangers thought they were putting together a nice little rotation with Corey Kluber, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor and Gibson. 

Kluber pitched one inning, Lynn was great, Minor was not and got traded, and Gibson had a 5.35 ERA in 12 starts with 30 walks in 67⅓ innings.

These are the kinds of deals teams will wish they hadn't signed last offseason given how 2020 has played out. Gibson is a back-end starter.

16/18

Harris was OK in his first year in Washington. The Nats' bullpen was such a trainwreck early in 2019 that they made sure to commit resources to it before 2020.

This is a fair price for an experienced late-inning reliever.

17/18

The Reds spent a lot of money last winter. Akiyama came over from Japan and led off in 30 of the 54 games he played. 

He was a .300-plus hitter with mid-20s home run pop in Japan but that power didn't translate to the big leagues. He hit .245 in 183 plate appearances with six doubles, a triple, no homers and a .297 slugging percentage.

Would the Reds right now rather have Moustakas and Akiyama for $85 million or have that $85 million to potentially spend on Bauer? Not a difficult question.

18/18

Inexpensive deal. On this list only because it was three years. The former Phillie (traded here from the Dodgers with Ethan Martin in 2012 for Shane Victorino) had a dominant two years in Korea that led to this contract.

Lindblom had a 5.16 ERA in 12 games (10 starts). It's $3 million per year, so simply eating innings does the job.

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