Phillies

MLB trade rumors: Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor all realistic Phillies trade targets

MLB trade rumors: Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor all realistic Phillies trade targets

Outwardly, the Phillies feel they have a good amount of starting pitching depth with Jerad Eickhoff, Cole Irvin, Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta all potential options as the Nos. 4 and 5 starters.

But how confident can they really be in any of the four of them on a start-by-start basis?

Eickhoff, who faces a tough Brewers team tonight, has experienced predictable regression in his last two starts, allowing five homers and nine runs in nine innings after pitching to a 1.50 ERA and not allowing a home run in his first 30 innings.

Irvin was optioned to Triple A after allowing seven runs in 4⅔ innings on Wednesday night. The degree of difficulty in that start was high — good Cubs team, on the road, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. Irvin's demotion seems less about the Phils closing the book on him and more about them looking to utilize an extra reliever until that turn in the rotation comes up again. Regular rest would have had Irvin start on Monday, but the Phillies are off, meaning they could go with a four-man rotation until June 1.

The Phillies have designs of playing well into October, and it's just hard to believe they have enough starting pitching, even if you have a rosy outlook for guys like Pivetta and Velasquez upon their returns. 

Fortunately for the Phils, their top need aligns with what this summer's trade market offers — in both quality and quantity. 

If the Phillies want to go after a top-of-the-rotation rental, that pitcher will be available. 

If they want a cheaper solution, that exists too.

If the preference is a pitcher who would cost you more in money than in prospects, one of those could be had as well. 

Zack Greinke

Greinke fits that last description. He has about $20 million remaining in salary this year and $64 million total the next two seasons. However, $32M of that $64M is deferred, scheduled to be paid in 2022-26.

Greinke has been awesome this season, going 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 starts. He has made 10 quality starts in a row. He offers reliability, durability, upside, efficiency and he can certainly help with his bat. Having Greinke is almost like having another hitter. He's 8 for 25 (.320) with two homers, a triple and two doubles this season and has been among the best hitting pitchers every year since 2013.

Because Greinke is 35 and owed so much money, any team after him would have to give up less in prospects than it would for another pitcher in his tier. The Diamondbacks are retooling, and even though they've exceeded expectations by playing .500 baseball in their first 50 games, they would welcome an opportunity to get out from under that contract, which had the highest per-year value in MLB history at the time Greinke signed it.

According to a radio report from USA Today's Bob Nightengale, who is based in Phoenix, the Phillies had a scout at one of Greinke's recent starts specifically to look at him. Teams have scouts everywhere this time of year but that does at least signal interest on the Phillies' part.

Madison Bumgarner

We've mentioned Bumgarner here quite a bit over the last six months because everyone knew the 2019 Giants would be a disaster and that Bumgarner's free agency was approaching.

Bumgarner, unlike Greinke, would be a half-season rental. He can block a trade to the Phillies and several other contending teams, a strategic component of his contract designed to increase his leverage. When a player has one of these clauses, he can use it to add urgency to contract extension talks with the pursuing team or some sort of trade bonus from his current team.

Bumgarner had shown signs of decline the last two seasons with lower strikeout rates, higher ERAs and far fewer innings pitched. This season, he's off to a promising start, striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings compared to 7.6 last season, along with one of the lower walk rates of his career. His fastball velocity is also about a full mile per hour higher than it was last season.

Bumgarner is not as efficient as Greinke. Bumgarner deals with a lot of foul balls these days and is typically at 100 pitches through six innings. He's gone deeper than six just twice this season.

Like Greinke, Bumgarner also helps with his bat, and he has one of the strongest postseason track records of any pitcher ever.

Though he'd be a potential rental, Bumgarner will still cost the Phillies or any team a young player they aren't enthused about trading.

When weighing Greinke vs. Bumgarner, another consideration is that Greinke has pitched better the last two years in one of the five most hitter-friendly parks in the game, while Bumgarner has been performing in the best park for pitchers.

Mike Minor

Minor is a left-hander the Phillies have shown interest in during recent trade seasons and offseasons. Once upon a time, he was a big pitching prospect for the Braves, but things didn't go as planned in Atlanta and it took him until close to his 30th birthday to find stability and consistency. 

After a dominant season in the Royals' bullpen in 2017, the Rangers took a chance on Minor as a starter and it has paid off. In 38 starts for Texas since the beginning of 2018, Minor is 17-11 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while pitching for a bad team in a haven for hitters.

Minor is owed about $6.4 million more this season and $9.5 million next season. Those are affordable and attractive salaries for a mid-rotation starter. Because of that affordability, the Rangers will rightfully look for a solid trade package for him. 

It's too early to speculate what any of these trade packages would look like specifically, but from least to most, it seems like it would go Greinke, Bumgarner, Minor, with Minor commanding more than Bumgarner only because he's under contract longer.

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Phillies beat Braves behind strong games from Jake Arrieta, Jay Bruce, J.T. Realmuto

Phillies beat Braves behind strong games from Jake Arrieta, Jay Bruce, J.T. Realmuto

Updated, 10 p.m.

Now that is the version of Jake Arrieta the Phillies need, the kind that can solidify a rotation. 

Arrieta pitched a gem and the Phillies hit two homers in a four-run fourth inning to beat the Braves 5-0 in Saturday's series opener at Citizens Bank Park.

The win gets the Phillies to .500 at 4-4. The Braves are 9-6.

J.T. Realmuto and Jay Bruce both homered in the decisive fourth. Realmuto's was a bomb to the last row of seats in the first deck in left field. It was his fourth already this season, in 73 fewer plate appearances than it took him last year.

"He's really turned into a premium offensive player over the last couple years," Bruce said of his teammate.

Bruce's came on the first pitch against Braves right-hander Kyle Wright. He started in left and Andrew McCutchen was the DH. The Phils have benefitted from Bruce's extra bat in the lineup with a couple of homers.

Arrieta cruised

It was a strong outing from Arrieta, who was locked-in and efficient and sounded encouraged after the game. He put only two Braves on base over his first five innings on a pair of singles. He struck out six and his sinker sat 93-94 mph. 

Arrieta pitched out of a potential jam in his final inning, finding fortune in the form of a Dansby Swanson line drive right at shortstop Didi Gregorius, who threw to second to double off Adeiny Hechavarria.

Through two starts, Arrieta is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA. 

"What I've seen in the first two starts is extremely impressive in its execution," manager Joe Girardi said of Arrieta after the game. "He was really sharp tonight again. It's really encouraging. I feel really good about what he's going to do."

Arrieta pitched through an elbow injury last summer. He did not have the proper feel of his breaking ball and it affected his entire repertoire. There were nights when he didn't seem to know where the ball was going. 

Different story so far in 2020.

“I have more weapons at my disposal than I’ve had the last couple years," Arrieta said. "I feel like I’m gonna be able to maintain the feel of my stuff deeper into games.”

Gotta love those three-run dingers

Bruce's three-run homer in the fourth inning was the Phillies' fourth in eight games this season. Realmuto has two; Bryce Harper and Bruce have one apiece.

The Phils have hit 12 homers in their eight games. They entered Saturday night ranked first in the majors in on-base percentage, sixth in slugging and fourth in OPS. The offense would be receiving more credit if it wasn't overshadowed by the bullpen's early-season meltdowns.

J.T. is on fire

An inning after hitting his fourth homer, Realmuto flew out to the scoreboard in right-center, just missing another one. He lined out to sharply to center in his final AB. Even the outs are crushed right now.

Realmuto has been the Phillies' best offensive player so far. They needed him to start fast and he has. Last season, Realmuto was still hitting in the .250s in July with an OPS in the mid-.700s. He drove the ball over his final 200 plate appearances to finish with a solid offensive year.

Over his last 55 games dating back to last July 27, Realmuto has hit .305/.356/.634 with 17 home runs and 46 RBI.

"J.T.'s super talented. He does so many things for this team," Girardi said. "As good as he is offensively, he puts his heart and his soul in defense and calling games. J.T.'s a player you don't have to worry about being prepared. That's what every manager wants.

"I hope he stays really hot for like three months."

Bullpen holds up again

Jose Alvarez, Tommy Hunter and Deolis Guerra combined for three scoreless innings and allowed just one baserunner. The Phillies' bullpen has allowed two runs in eight innings in its last two games, two steps in the right direction.

Before the game, pitching coach Bryan Price talked about the need for the "second layer" of Phillies relievers to step up with so many doubleheaders on the schedule.

Harper does it with defense

Harper, who reprioritized defense prior to a strong 2019, continues to impress in the field. He made this diving catch in the fifth inning Saturday. He also went 2 for 4 with a double.

The Phillies' defense has not been an issue so far. They've committed just three errors in eight games, none from their new left side of the infield. Jean Segura bobbled a hot shot to third base in the first inning but recovered to get Swanson by a step at first base. It was the kind of play that could have altered the game early if it wasn't made, especially ahead of Freddie Freeman.

Twin bill on Sundee

The Phillies play a seven-inning doubleheader against the Braves Sunday beginning at 1:05 p.m. Game 2 will begin 40 minutes after Game 1. 

Vince Velasquez will start in one of the games and top prospect Spencer Howard will make his MLB debut in the other.

The four-game wraparound series ends Monday night when Aaron Nola faces Atlanta.

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What makes Spencer Howard such an exciting piece of Phillies' future?

What makes Spencer Howard such an exciting piece of Phillies' future?

Spencer Howard is coming. The Phillies said everything they could say Saturday without making it official that Howard, their top prospect, will start one of the two games of their doubleheader Sunday.

Manager Joe Girardi really left things up to interpretation before the Phillies' series opener against the Braves, saying the nod would go to a young right-hander with the initials S.H. A few minutes later, he said that he was "not ready to make an official announcement until tomorrow, but if nothing changes, you can expect it to be Spencer Howard."

Plenty of hype surrounds the 24-year-old Howard, the Phillies' second-round pick in 2017. He has the tools of an ace.

"Big fastball, really good slider-changeup combination, emerging curveball," pitching coach Bryan Price said Saturday in a 15-minute Zoom call that was almost entirely about Howard. "And he throws strikes, he competes well, controls the running game. He's a very polished young guy with a big arm. 

"Quite often when you find guys with velocity, it takes time for them to figure out command or how to sequence their pitches. I just think he's a polished kid. I think he's ready to come up and help us."

That description of the typical young pitcher with velocity who takes time to figure it out applies to the pitcher Howard is poised to eventually replace in the Phillies' rotation: Vince Velasquez. Velasquez, at 28, doesn't have much rope left. He has a 4.75 ERA in more than 100 appearances as a Phillie (93 starts). He's allowed 1.53 home runs per nine innings as a Phillie, easily the highest home run rate of any pitcher in Phillies history with as many innings.

The Phillies could still end up starting Velasquez throughout the 2020 season because they have six doubleheaders over the next six weeks, i.e. six instances when they'll need a sixth starting pitcher.

It will be interesting Sunday to compare and contrast Howard and Velasquez in the two starts. It would not be a surprise to see Howard strike out eight Braves over five scoreless innings. Nor would it be a surprise if he struggled in his first start against a potent big-league lineup.

"He has deception, he pitches with a high fastball but can also create good downward angle," Price said. "I think getting the first one under his belt — hopefully there are many more to come in Philadelphia — is something we're all excited to see."

Howard was a late bloomer. He did not start games until his junior season at Cal Poly. His freshman season, he was one of the last players to make the roster. In the span of just a few years, his velocity rose from the upper-80s to the 90s to the point that he touched 100 mph in the minors.

"One of the great things about the sport of baseball is that not everybody is a prodigy. Not everybody is Alex Rodriguez or Bryce Harper, on the map at 15, 16, 17 years old," Price said.

"I think in Spencer's case, he had to have that skill set in there. The aptitude and the feel. And so as the arm strength built, he had enough feel for pitching to make some really significant strides in a short period of time."

The next step: A start in South Philly against the NL East favorites.

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