A coin flip. That’s what we’re down to here. And nothing encapsulates the 2020 Phillies better.
After last night’s 12-3 win over the Nationals, the Phillies sit with a 49.8 percent chance to make the postseason, according to Fangraphs. They currently sit ninth in the NL, one spot behind the Reds for the second Wild Card spot.
But a whole lot can change in this logjam of an NL postseason race over the season’s final four days. There are no play-in games. Everything will be settled by Sunday evening.
Here’s a look at the race as we head into Friday’s games:
- • 5. Cardinals: 27-26
- • 6. Marlins: 28-28
- • 7. Giants: 28-27
- • 8. Reds: 29-28
- • 9. Phillies 28-29
- • 10. Brewers: 27-28
The Phillies must finish with a better record than the Marlins to overtake them in the division, due to Miami winning the head-to-head record this season (7-3).
Here’s where things get murky. The first tiebreaker between teams from different divisions is their record against teams within their own division. The Phillies’ record against NL East teams is 21-19.
Here’s a look at the intradivision records of the teams in the chase, and their intradivision games left:
- • Cardinals: 19-16 (5 games vs. MIL)
- • Giants: 17-18 (1 vs. COL, 4 vs. SD)
- • Reds: 21-19 (0)
- • Brewers: 17-18 (5 vs. STL)
The Phillies could have a bit of an advantage this weekend. They are off Thursday. They also are playing a team that has clinched a berth in the postseason. The Phillies play three against the Rays, who have locked up the AL East. Tampa needs just one win to seal the top seed in the American League.
The Reds play three against Minnesota, who has clinched a postseason spot, but the Twins have plenty to play for. They sit just a half-game ahead of the White Sox for the AL Central lead, and could catch Tampa for the overall top seed.
The Phillies could win out and still miss the playoffs. They could lose two of three this weekend and still make it. Buckle up.