Phillies

Phillies

If you thought the Phillies were going to win 84+ games, and if you believe there will indeed be baseball this season, then their most recent over/under is worth exploring.

Over at DraftKings sportsbook, the Phillies’ winning percentage over/under is 52.5%. Over the course of a full season that’s a record of at least 84-78. There probably will not be a 162-game season in 2020, and the reduced schedule could certainly affect things. There will be less time for a team’s true talent level to play out. You could see a club or two excel early in one-run games to exceed expectations. You could see a club or two struggle in those games and fall well short. A shorter season opens the door for more randomness.

The NL East winning percentage over/unders in full:

Braves: 56%
Nationals: 55%
Mets: 53%
Phillies: 52.5%
Marlins: 40%

Six National League games have a higher number than the Phils and three are in their own division. The others are the Dodgers (62.5%), Cubs (53%) and Cardinals (53%).

The Phillies are +340 to win the NL East, meaning a $100 bet on them to win the division would pay out $340 if they do. The Mets are +320, the Nationals are +230 and the Braves are the favorite at +200. The Marlins are +20000.

Only six MLB teams have shorter odds than the Phillies to win the World Series. Here is the Top 10, where you’ll see a huge gap after the first three teams.

 

Dodgers: +375
Yankees: +400
Astros: +550
Braves: +1200
Nationals: +1600
Twins: +1800
Phillies: +2000
Cardinals: +2000
Rays: +2000
Cubs/Mets/Indians: +2500

It’s interesting that the Phillies’ World Series odds are shorter than two teams who have higher winning percentage over/unders in the Mets and Cubs. Could mean there’s more confidence that if the Phillies get to the playoffs, they could make a deeper run than those teams. Earning a playoff spot in the NL East — probably the best division in baseball — would be difficult enough ... if the NL East is still set up the same way in the unprecedented season ahead.

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