Phillies' 2019 payroll and how much they can realistically spend this offseason

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Phillies' 2019 payroll and how much they can realistically spend this offseason

You've been hearing for a while that the Phillies have plenty of money to spend this offseason on top stars if they so choose.

How much money do they have exactly?

Let's take a look at the 2019 payroll:

The guaranteed contracts

Jake Arrieta: $25M

Carlos Santana: $20.333M

Tommy Hunter: $9M

Pat Neshek: $7.75M

Odubel Herrera: $5.35M

Scott Kingery: $1.5M

This adds up to just a shade under $69 million.

First year of arbitration 

The following are arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason:

Aaron Nola
Vince Velasquez
Hector Neris
Aaron Altherr
Jerad Eickhoff
Adam Morgan
Pedro Florimon

• Morgan and Florimon will be easy to move on from. Neither provides a valuable enough skill to pay $1 million or so for. They're players who can be replaced cheaply by a younger lefty reliever and utilityman.

• Nola made $573,000 in 2018. The record for a first-year arbitration salary was the $10.85 million paid to Kris Bryant this season. It broke the previous record of $10 million for Ryan Howard.

Both Bryant and Howard won Rookie of the Year and MVP in their first two full seasons. So as accomplished as Nola is at this point, he probably won't make more than they did. Still, it will be a substantial raise for the Phillies' ace, and depending on how this offseason goes, we could see the Phils give Nola an extension that buys out his first couple years of free agency. If the Phils and Nola go that route, it could cost something in the vicinity of $75 million.

• Neris will be back after regaining his confidence and posting an insanely high strikeout rate in the second half.

• Velasquez should be back, too, although it may not be as a starting pitcher.

• Altherr and Eickhoff both had lost seasons. Eickhoff was injured for the majority of 2018 before impressing in one start at the end of September, while Altherr struggled pretty much all year.

Both could be worth bringing back as insurance. Altherr has the skill set of a fourth outfielder and it could just be that 2018 was a down year. 

Second and third year of arbitration

The Phillies' only two Arb 2 players are Maikel Franco and Luis Garcia, both of whom could be gone this offseason. 

Does it make sense to pay Garcia $2-2.5 million after a disappointing season, or is he replaceable?

Franco's case is very interesting. It would make no sense for the Phillies to non-tender a 26-year-old coming off his best full season. Franco hit .270/.314/.467 with 22 homers a year after hitting .230/.281/.409 with 24 homers. 

Even if Franco is not in the Phillies' future plans, it would make more sense to agree to a one-year deal first and then trade him. Same goes for Cesar Hernandez, the Phillies' only player going into his third arbitration year.

Pre-arbitration players

The following players are not yet eligible for arbitration and should thus make between $500,000 and $600,000.

Rhys Hoskins
Zach Eflin
Seranthony Dominguez
Nick Pivetta
Roman Quinn
Jorge Alfaro
Nick Williams
J.P. Crawford
Victor Arano
Edubray Ramos
Andrew Knapp
Dylan Cozens
Yacksel Rios

The total payroll (free agency aside)

If the Phillies do keep Franco and Hernandez, they will be at about $102 million. This takes into account the guaranteed contracts, the arbitration-eligible players and the pre-arb guys.

If the Phils trade both Hernandez and Franco, that number should decrease to $88-90 million.

The Phillies' highest-ever opening day payroll was $178 million in 2014. They may not get all the way back there this offseason — Andy MacPhail did bring up next winter's free-agent class at his end-of-year press conference — but if they do get very aggressive, there's about $70 million or so they could add to next year's payroll.

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Zach Eflin is important so the Phillies are going to need more than this down the stretch

Zach Eflin is important so the Phillies are going to need more than this down the stretch

If the Phillies are going to live to play a little October baseball this season, they’re going to have to jump on the No. 41 train — that’s Charlie Manuel’s uniform number — and hit their way there.

Despite the need to out-hit other clubs, the Phillies are still going to have nights when they need their pitching to lead the way. This was one of those nights. After four big nights and as many wins, the offense was sluggish Saturday night. The Phillies needed their pitching to carry them and it didn’t happen. The result was a 5-3 loss to the San Diego Padres and the end of a four-game winning streak. The Phillies, who are a game out of the second NL wild-card spot, have not won five in a row all season.

Zach Eflin, back in the rotation after a three-week demotion to the bullpen, showed a change in pitching style and opened the game with three shutout innings. He even had a base hit in the second inning to help the Phils build a 3-0 lead.

But Eflin could not hold that lead in the fourth inning and he lost it in a rather disturbing way: He gave up three two-out runs after twice being one strike away from getting out of the inning.

“Horrible,” Eflin said. “I did a bad job of putting guys away in two-strike situations.”

With two outs in the fourth and a man on first base, Eflin was ahead of the opposing pitcher, Dinelson Lamet, 0-2. He ended up allowing a full-count hit to extend the inning. Manuel Margot then had an RBI single on an 0-2 pitch before Josh Naylor tied the game with a two-run double on a 1-2 pitch.

“They were big,” manager Gabe Kapler said of those killer two-strike hits. “We want to be able to put people away whenever we can. It’s difficult. We want to execute pitches in those situations and give ourselves a chance to stay in the ballgame.”

Eflin did not make it out of the fourth inning. Nick Pivetta gave up two runs in the fifth and took the loss.

The Phillies’ bats produced just six hits after getting 35 the previous three nights.

Eflin has always been a guy who likes to throw his sinker and get early contact. For much of this season, however, he’s thrown a high percentage of four-seam fastballs. Team officials stress that pitch, executed up in the zone, to get swing and misses and counteract hitters who look to launch the ball and Eflin has had some success with that style of pitching this season.

But July was a tough month for Eflin. He had trouble getting through the middle innings, was hit hard and eventually demoted to the bullpen. He threw no more than 12 percent sinkers in any of his final four starts before being sent to the bullpen in late July. He moved back to the rotation after Jake Arrieta’s injury and threw 37 percent sinkers Saturday night.

Though he did not pitch deep into the game, Eflin wants to continue to feature his sinker in upcoming starts.

“We’ll have a discussion about it, but I see no reason why I shouldn’t throw more sinkers,” Eflin said. “Especially if I’m trying to go deep into games.

“I don’t care about swing and misses. I care about outs and going as deep as I can in games and putting the team in the best possible chance to win the game. I think swing and misses are a plus when you can do it. I’m not saying they’re not important, but I think it’s definitely more important to get guys out with fewer pitches as opposed to just going for the swing and miss every single pitch. It also takes a toll on your body so for me it’s more important to stay in the game as long as I can, get weak contact and when a guy is on first base get a double play. And there’s always going to be an opportunity for swing and miss.”

With Arrieta out, Eflin knows he’s important. He has a lot of talent. He was the Phillies’ best pitcher over the first two months of the season. He pitched two complete games in a span of three starts from April 28 to May 11. It’s in there and the Phillies need it to come out more than ever now. Maybe featuring his bread-and-butter sinker will help. Time will tell.

“It’s my job to come in and fill a role and put up zeroes and put the team in the best position to win, so I’m really looking forward to building my pitch count up and feeling like a starter again,” Eflin said.

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Phillies don't get enough from Zach Eflin, offense as winning streak ends in loss to Padres

Phillies don't get enough from Zach Eflin, offense as winning streak ends in loss to Padres

The Phillies’ winning streak was stopped at four games in a 5-3 loss to the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday night. The Phillies have not won five straight games all season.

Right-hander Zach Eflin returned to the rotation and could not hold a 3-0 lead. He twice was one strike away from getting out of the fourth inning, but allowed a pair of hits after being up 0-2 in the count and that led to three San Diego runs, and the Padres pulled ahead with a couple of runs against ineffective Nick Pivetta in the fifth.

The Phillies took a 2-0 lead in the second on doubles by Jean Segura and Scott Kingery and a single by Eflin. Smokin’ hot J.T. Realmuto homered in the third. But the Phils did not score after that as San Diego right-hander Dinelson Lamet delivered six innings of three-run ball.

The loss dropped the Phillies to a game out of the second wild-card spot in the National League. The Phils are 64-59.

Eflin’s night

Eflin was the Phillies’ most consistent starter over the first two months of the season and their least consistent in July. That led to his being moved to the bullpen for three weeks.

Jake Arrieta’s season-ending elbow injury forced the Phillies to put Eflin back in the rotation and he did not fare all that well in his first start since July 27.

Eflin pitched scoreless ball for the first three innings and enjoyed a 3-0 lead but could not get out of the fourth inning and allowed three runs.

Trouble putting hitters away

All of the Padres’ runs in the third inning came with two outs. Eflin had Lamet, the opposing pitcher, down 0-2 in the count and could not put him away. Lamet kept the inning alive with a full-count single on a four-seam fastball. Eflin then had Manuel Margot, 0-2, and gave up an RBI single. He then gave up a two-run double to Josh Naylor on a 2-2 four-seamer. Eflin had been ahead in that count, 1-2, but could not put Naylor away.

Second time not a charm

It was not surprising to see Eflin open with three scoreless frames. Entering the game, he’d held opposing hitters to a .213 batting average the first time through the order. Opponents had been hitting .363 the second time through. Clearly, opposing hitters are getting better looks at Eflin as the game goes on. Eflin has not pitched more than four innings in four of his last five starts. He hit a wall in the fourth inning on July 20 in Pittsburgh and left that game after four innings with “heavy legs.” Eflin is going to have to figure out a way to build more endurance over the winter. In the meantime, he needs to pitch deeper into games the remainder of this season because the Phils are thin on starting pitching and innings in their rotation and he has too much talent to be such a middling starter.

Different approach

Eflin threw 73 pitches, including 27 sinkers. That 37 percent mark was his highest of the season. He’d really de-emphasized the pitch recently, but featured it often in this one and had some success with it in the first three innings.

Eflin allowed seven hits in 3 2/3 innings only got one swing and miss in 73 pitches.

Offense slows down

After 35 hits and 26 runs in the previous three games, all with Charlie Manuel in the dugout as hitting coach, the Phils were held to just six hits.

Rhys Hoskins returned to the starting lineup -- he did not start Friday because of a sore hand – and went 0 for 3. He is 6 for 57 (.105) in his last 17 games.

Bryce Harper proved human by going 0 for 4 with two strikeouts.

Realmuto stayed hot. He has eight homers and 21 RBIs in his last 22 games. 

Up next

The two teams meet again in the series finale Sunday afternoon. Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.03) opposes Joey Lucchesi (7-7, 4.25) in a matchup of lefties.

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