The Phillies have a few interesting decisions to make with their arbitration-eligible players this winter.
They have seven in total: Rhys Hoskins, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, Adam Morgan, Heath Hembree, Andrew Knapp and Seranthony Dominguez.
Hoskins and Eflin will obviously be back. Both had strong seasons in 2020 to further solidify their roles on this team.
Knapp will be back too, either as the backup to J.T. Realmuto or to play a larger role if Realmuto leaves in free agency.
Dominguez will miss most or all of the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of July, but he's worth keeping around because of his upside.
Things could go either way with Velasquez, Morgan and Hembree because all three will be more expensive. Hembree was terrible after the Phillies acquired him from the Red Sox. Morgan had UCL surgery this month. And Velasquez could make nearly $5 million through arbitration.
For the last decade, MLB Trade Rumors has published arbitration projections from the great Matt Swartz, whose algorithm has been remarkably accurate. It accounts for playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.
Forecasting the numbers this winter is more challenging than ever before because MLB is coming off of a 60-game regular season. There is less data involved in the process, along with the expected decrease in offseason spending because of the pandemic. We could see many more players than usual non-tendered (let go) rather than paid through arbitration.
Because of this, Swartz laid out three different projections. Below are the ones derived from extrapolating this season's 60-game stats into full-season numbers (i.e. one home run is worth 2.7).
- Zach Eflin: $5.5M
- Rhys Hoskins: $5.5M
- Vince Velasquez: $4.8M
- Heath Hembree: $2.2M
- Adam Morgan: $2.0M
- Andrew Knapp: $1.5M
- Seranthony Dominguez: $900,000