Phillies will spend big, but does that even work?

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Phillies will spend big, but does that even work?

There's been an interesting development across baseball this offseason. Two West Coast teams with high payrolls who stumbled down the stretch in 2018 have decided to shed salary and rebuild.

The Mariners won 89 games but realize they're too far behind the Astros — and perhaps even the A's — to continue along this path. And so they traded James Paxton, they're willing to listen on Mitch Haniger and Edwin Diaz, and they're aggressively shopping Robinson Cano.

The timing of this all is interesting, with the Phillies in a commanding position this offseason because of their deep pockets and John Middleton's desire to spend. The Phils are about to spend big, just as two other teams are already realizing they've spent themselves into a quandary. 

Cano is halfway through the 10-year, $240 million contract he signed with the Mariners. He has five years and $120 million remaining. He was also busted for PEDs this past season, which will make any suitor hesitant. If Cano is suspended again, it will be for 162 games.

Even without the recent suspension, though, Seattle would still be looking to get out from under Cano's deal, which they were so excited to sign him to in 2013. The crazy thing is that the Mariners are seen as so willing to move Cano's money that they could include one of their two best young players — Haniger or Diaz — just to get Cano off the books.

I personally don't think they'll end up including Haniger or Diaz with Cano unless they also get some top-notch prospects back. But this is an example of how one humongous contract can affect an entire roster.

The Phillies, of course, are in a different position than the Mariners or D-backs. The Phils can simply afford more, and if in several years they're in a similar to predicament to Seattle or Arizona, they wouldn't be looking purely for salary relief in a trade. They'd want to do something similar to what they did with Cole Hamels — eat plenty of money to get a meaningful return in a trade.

Still, the contracts of Cano and Zack Greinke emphasize the point that these massive deals rarely work out for the team. 

Just look at the active players with the 12 highest annual salaries:

1. Zack Greinke: $34.4M per year

2. Miguel Cabrera, David Price, Clayton Kershaw: $31M

5. Max Scherzer: $30M

6. Yoenis Cespedes: $27.5M

7. Jon Lester: $25.8M

8. Justin Verlander: $25.7M

9. Jake Arrieta, Felix Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, Stephen Strasburg: $25M

That's a dozen players and at least five — Greinke, Cabrera, Cespedes, Arrieta, King Felix — whose teams would ideally like a way out of the contract. Then you've got teams like the Cubs and Nats, who would probably prefer to have that $25 million available this offseason for Bryce Harper than to have it invested in Lester and Strasburg.

It's why I don't love the idea of the Phillies giving Patrick Corbin $130 million or more — and $130 million is where negotiations figure to begin with Yu Darvish getting $126M last offseason. It's tough for any player to live up to one of these contracts unless he's young and ascending with a skill set that ages well. With most pitchers, even aces, committing nine figures is too risky. One elbow pop and you're looking at an insane amount of dead money.

Harper and Manny Machado, though, are exceptions because they're so young. Both have turned 26 within the last four months. A team won't be paying for past performance like the D-backs did with Greinke, it will be paying the market price for a superstar about to begin his prime.

Middleton has said the Phillies could be a bit "stupid" about how they spend money this offseason. For Harper and/or Machado, it would be stupid money but a smart investment. In five years, few are going to fault the front office that signs either star. If every organization had as much money to spend as the Phillies, every organization would be approaching this offseason similarly.

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Phillies had 2 massive extra advantages in 2008 NLDS vs. Brewers

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You need a lot to break right to win a championship in any sport but particularly in baseball, where we routinely see the best team fail to win it all. It doesn't matter how you've performed in the preceding six months and 162 games, any team is susceptible to a bad week in October.

The 2008 Phillies were not the favorite to win the World Series when that postseason began. They had won 92 games with a prolific offense. The Cubs won 97, and in the AL, the Red Sox, Rays and Angels all won 95-plus.

The teams with the two best records in baseball that year (Angels at 100-62, Cubs at 97-64), were dispatched quickly in the playoffs, with the Cubs suffering a sweep to the Dodgers in the NLDS and the Angels going down in four games to the Red Sox in the ALDS.

Who knows how much differently the 2008 playoffs would have gone for the Phillies if they drew the Cubs or Dodgers in the NLDS, or the Red Sox instead of the Rays in the World Series. It obviously doesn't matter because reality > hypotheticals, but that 2008 postseason was a good example of timing being everything.

The 2008 Phillies were a better team than the 2008 Brewers, but they also had two huge benefits in that series beyond home-field advantage. Those benefits were the Brewers' top two starting pitchers.

CC Sabathia was the blockbuster trade acquisition in '08. The Brewers acquired him on July 7, three weeks before the deadline, and he dominated for more than two months. In 17 starts with Milwaukee, Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Ridiculously, he pitched seven complete games with three shutouts in those 17 starts.

But by the time the postseason began, Sabathia was spent. His start against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS was his fifth straight start on short rest. Four days earlier, Sabathia had thrown 122 pitches in a complete game.

It was clear pretty early in that game that Sabathia was not the pitcher he was down the stretch, and Phillies fans will never forget the second inning. (We will explore the famous nine-pitch Brett Myers walk and Shane Victorino grand slam in more depth Tuesday.)

The other advantage the Phillies had was that the Brewers' rock that year, Ben Sheets, found out at the end of the regular season that he needed Tommy John surgery and would be unable to pitch in the playoffs. Sheets, who had a 3.24 ERA in 128 starts from 2004-08 and was a four-time All-Star, never ended up making a postseason start. 

Had he been healthy, Sheets would have started Game 1 for the Brewers ahead of Sabathia. Instead, that Game 1 start went to Yovani Gallardo, who had torn his ACL on May 1 and was unable to return until the final week of the regular season. 

Gallardo went on to have a decent 12-year career but he wasn't ready for that big moment in enemy territory in '08. The Phillies scored three runs off of him (unearned because of a Rickie Weeks error), and that was plenty of run support for Cole Hamels.

The Phillies clearly benefitted from the Brewers' starting pitching situation that October, but that doesn't discredit the business they took care of. In the NLDS, Prince Fielder went 1 for 14 (.071). Ryan Braun, who would go on to become a career Phillie-killer, had just an OK series, reaching base in five of 17 plate appearances and going hitless with runners in scoring position until his final at-bat of the series, an RBI single with the Phillies up five runs in their Game 4 clincher.

The Brewers hit just .206/.271/.254 as a team in that series with one home run against the Phils.

The re-airs of the Phillies' entire 2008 playoff run begin tonight on NBC Sports Philadelphia. The NLDS runs this week from Monday-Thursday, followed by the NLCS next week and the World Series the week after.

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