How much money comes off the books for Phillies this offseason?

How much money comes off the books for Phillies this offseason?

As we all wait for the managerial shoe to drop, let's take a look ahead at the Phillies' 2020 payroll commitments and who comes off the books this offseason:

Remaining contracts

Bryce Harper: 12 years, $300 million

Aaron Nola: 4 years, $55M

Jean Segura: 3 years, $45.55M

Andrew McCutchen: 2 years, $40M

Odubel Herrera: 2 years, $20.2M

Jake Arrieta: 1 year, $20M

Scott Kingery: 4 years, $19.5M

David Robertson: 1 year, $13M

Keep in mind that some Phillies have back-loaded deals. McCutchen made only $10 million of his $50 million deal in 2019. Herrera's cost rises each of the next two seasons. Nola's rises each of the next three.

In total, these eight players are set to earn $108 million combined in 2020. For luxury tax purposes — which accounts for the annual value of the contract rather than the yearly allocations — the number for those eight players is $114 million.

J.T. Realmuto's extension

Realmuto earned $5.9 million in 2019. Next season is his final year of arbitration eligibility. If they go to arbitration, Realmuto will earn more than $10 million. But the Phillies are prioritizing an extension, one that will likely reach nine figures.

Assuming Realmuto's extension averages $20 million per year, the Phillies' luxury tax number would be around $134 million before accounting for raises to their young players under team control.

Players due raises

Rhys Hoskins is not arbitration-eligible until after the 2020 season. He made $575,000 last season and will likely see a raise to the $1 million range.

This will be the first arbitration year for Zach Eflin, Andrew Knapp and Edubray Ramos. Eflin is the most likely of the three to be back.

It is the second arbitration year for Adam Morgan, Hector Neris and Vince Velasquez. Neris and Morgan will likely be back, while Velasquez is a toss-up.

It will be the third arbitration year for Realmuto, Maikel Franco and Jose Alvarez. Realmuto and Alvarez are currently set for free agency after the 2020 season.

Franco and Cesar Hernandez were Super Two players so both have four years of arbitration rather than three. This offseason will be Hernandez's fourth and final year of arbitration eligibility. He earned $7.75M in 2019. The number will likely rise to $9.5-10M in 2020. Hernandez is not worth $10 million. It is more likely the Phillies move on from him and start Scott Kingery at second base than pay Hernandez eight figures in 2020.

Still making close to league minimum

The Phillies' pre-arbitration players in 2020 are Hoskins, Adam Haseley, Ranger Suarez, Nick Pivetta, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn, Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano, Cole Irvin, Austin Davis, Enyel De Los Santos and Edgar Garcia, among a few others on the 40-man roster who haven't yet made it to the majors.

Pivetta and Williams could be gone. Both need changes of scenery.

Off the books

Contracts are set to expire for Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, Juan Nicasio, Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Drew Smyly, Nick Vincent, Mike Morin, Blake Parker, Sean Rodriguez, Phil Gosselin, Logan Morrison and Jose Pirela.

There is an $8 million team option on Jason Vargas' contract that can be bought out for $2 million. The Phils seem likely to buy him out because they need to drastically improve the rotation and already have Eflin and Arrieta slotted into the back of it.

Jay Bruce is still under contract in 2020 but the Phillies are paying less than $2 million of it, with the Mariners paying the rest.

There is also an option on Jared Hughes' contract, but he certainly didn't pitch well enough to entice the Phils to bring him back for $3 million.

How far under the tax?

After adding up the salaries of the players still under contract, the players due raises and assuming Realmuto gets $20M per year, the Phillies' luxury tax number for 2020 would be right around $150 million before they make a single offseason signing or trade. The tax threshold for 2020 is $208 million. The tax for a team exceeding it for the first time is 20 percent for every dollar it goes over.

The Phillies have never exceeded the threshold but may have to in order to put together a team capable of competing with the Braves and Nationals next season. If push comes to shove, John Middleton and the Phillies' ownership group may do it.

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More on the Phillies

Phillies free-agent target: Cole Hamels

Phillies free-agent target: Cole Hamels

Leading up to baseball's winter meetings, we will take a daily look at some of the game's top free agents and how they could potentially impact the Phillies.

Today, we check in on someone Phillies fans know well, veteran lefty Cole Hamels.

The vitals

It feels funny typing those words — veteran lefty — but that's just what Hamels is now. He turns 36 in December. Hard to believe for those of us who remember the squeaky-voiced teenager who showed up at Veterans Stadium for a news conference after the Phillies selected him 17th overall in the 2002 draft. Six years later, Hamels was MVP of the National League Championship Series and World Series as the Phillies won it all in 2008. 

Hamels was traded to Texas as the Phillies ramped up their rebuild in the summer of 2015 and now he's a free agent who still has something to offer. One-hundred fourteen of his 163 wins have come in a Phillies uniform. Will he come full circle and win a few more for the Phillies now that the rebuild is over?

Why he fits

Hamels is no longer the top-of-the-rotation pitcher he was during his prime in Philadelphia, but the Phillies need pitching up and down their rotation and he would make a lot of sense as a stabilizer at the back half of it. He had a 3.81 ERA for the Cubs in 27 starts last season but missed a month with an oblique injury suffered in late June. Hamels was quite good before the injury, recording a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts. He struggled and pitched to a 5.79 ERA in 10 starts after returning from the IL.

With an offseason to heal, Hamels will be healthy as he joins some team this winter and he should be able to deliver 150-160 innings. He did not receive a qualifying offer from the Cubs so he would not cost a draft pick.

Once upon a time, Hamels grew up as a young pitcher in Philadelphia under the tutelage of Roy Halladay. Hamels is a serious student of the craft of pitching. It would be poetic if he returned to Philadelphia and served as a mentor to some of the Phillies' young arms, and fans would certainly welcome his return as part of a pitching staff upgrade.

Why he doesn't fit

The only way we see a reunion not being a fit is if the market for Hamels gets extremely competitive and his price becomes more than the Phillies want to commit to a 36-year-old pitcher. The Phils will need a starting pitching upgrade beyond Hamels, but he'd be a solid second wintertime addition.

The price tag

As far back as May, Hamels talked about his desire to finish his career in Philadelphia. He recently told that he'd be open to a one-year contract. That's not exactly strategy out of the Negotiating 101 handbook and it hasn't stopped agent John Boggs from seeking a multi-year deal. Hamels made $20 million with Cubs last season. It's difficult to see him getting that much, but not difficult to see him getting something in the neighborhood of $17 million per season.

Scout's take

"He's no longer that middle-to-top-of-the-rotation guy, but a one-year deal should probably entice every team in the game. He really knows how to pitch. You look at the No. 4 guys in the league. If he's healthy, I'd have solid confidence in him in that role."

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At the Yard podcast: Early free-agent signings and disappointing prospects


At the Yard podcast: Early free-agent signings and disappointing prospects

How will Yasmani Grandal's contract affect J.T. Realmuto's? Why did Tuesday's roster moves represent such massive disappointment? Jim Salisbury and Corey Seidman discuss on the latest At the Yard podcast.

• Grandal vs. Realmuto

• Phils have a new hitting coach

• Reassessing the third base market

• Will Rendon beat Arenado's number?

• Phillies left 2 massive busts unprotected in Rule 5 draft ... and you might not want to hear the names of who they passed on

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Apple Podcasts / Google Play / Spotify / Stitcher / Art19