Phillies

Seidman's 5-point Phillies offseason plan: Bryce Harper, Zach Britton and a trade

Seidman's 5-point Phillies offseason plan: Bryce Harper, Zach Britton and a trade

It would take more than Bryce Harper for the Phillies to make up the gap between 80 wins and playoff contention in 2019. Harper alone would add a handful of wins, but if he does come aboard, the Phils will still have work to do before or after that signing.

Here's my (realistically) ideal offseason:

Sign Bryce Harper for 9 years, $360 million

It's $40 million a year. It's more total money than Giancarlo Stanton got and it's $15 million more per year.

For the Phillies, this would accomplish the goal of giving Harper and Scott Boras what they're seeking, while also avoiding a 14-year contract. 

If the Phillies were to get Harper on a nine-year deal, they'd avoid paying him $40 million or so after the age of 35.

Sign Zach Britton

Boom, there's your late-inning lefty to pair with Seranthony Dominguez and an experienced closer should Dominguez falter in that role at any point.

Britton would offer a unique look, as a lefty with a power sinker. Going from Pat Neshek to Dominguez to Britton would offer the opponent three completely different styles and repertoires in innings 7-9. The Phillies would lock down plenty of leads.

Sign J.A. Happ

I'm not big on paying Patrick Corbin more than $100 million. Nor do I love the idea of trading good young players for the injury-prone James Paxton or Robbie Ray. There's no doubt that all three southpaws have a ton of talent and legit swing-and-miss stuff, but it's a risk. 

Paxton's career high is 160 innings. Ray walked 70 batters in 123⅔ innings in 2018, with an ERA a full run higher than the previous year.

If it's me, I'd rather give Happ a two-year, $30 million deal with a third-year vesting option. He's not as good as Paxton or Ray at their best, but Happ is more reliable, will cost less, and his last three years have been the best of his career. Since 2016, Happ is 47-21 with a 3.44 ERA in 88 starts, with 8.7 strikeouts per nine and 2.7 walks.

He'd fit well in this Phillies rotation.

Trade Maikel Franco to Padres for Craig Stammen, Robbie Erlin and a prospect

The Padres are interested in Franco, according to teammate Jim Salisbury. But it's hard for me to see San Diego parting with Kirby Yates, who had a 2.14 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 63 innings as a setup man and closer last season. Yates is also cost-controlled for a low price. From a Phillies perspective, Yates seems like an overly optimistic return.

Stammen and Erlin could both help the Phillies' pitching staff, though. Stammen, who you probably remember from his seven seasons with the Nationals, is coming off his best year. He had a 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 73 appearances, striking out 88 in 79 innings and allowing just three home runs.

Erlin, a lefty, made 39 appearances, 12 starts, and exhibited tremendous control, walking just 12 batters in 109 innings. He'd be an upgrade over Adam Morgan.

The Padres will also want to rid themselves of underperforming Wil Myers' contract, but there's no reason for the Phillies to assume his remaining $70 million unless it also gets them a valuable asset like Yates.

Sign Wilson Ramos

If Harper comes aboard, it would likely mean Rhys Hoskins moves back to first base and Carlos Santana plays more third base than anyone expected. 

If a Santana trade cannot be worked out, then the Phillies' outfield and infield would both be set. Where else is there to improve? Behind the plate.

Ramos and Yasmani Grandal are the top two catchers on the free-agent market. Both are coming off very good offensive years and both have question marks. For Ramos, it's health. For Grandal, it's the lasting impression of his defensive struggles in the playoffs.

But both players will get decent offers because offense behind the plate is at a premium. There just are not many catchers around the league who can hit. 

Ramos was awesome for the Phillies ... when he was able to play. The Phillies acquired him with 55 games left and he played 33, hitting .337/.396/.483 with 10 extra-base hits and 10 walks in 101 plate appearances.

The Phillies, as his most recent team, should know more about Ramos' health than any other club. If they feel comfortable he can reach 400-plus plate appearances again in 2019, they should bring him back. They can enjoy Jorge Alfaro's pitch-framing all they want, but Alfaro does not and will never offer the offensive consistency of Ramos, who at 31 should still have at least two more good years in him.

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Phillies to sign Matt Szczur, according to sources

Phillies to sign Matt Szczur, according to sources

The Phillies are about to sign a player with a resume chock-full of impressive — and important — accomplishments.

According to sources, Matt Szczur, the 30-year-old outfielder from South Jersey, has agreed to sign a minor-league contract with the Phils. The deal will include an invite to major-league spring training camp.

Szczur — pronounced SEE-zur — has spent parts of five seasons in the majors with the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres. He is a product of Lower Cape May Regional High School and Villanova University. He was a two-sport star at Villanova.

On the football field, Szczur was a dynamic receiver and return specialist for Villanova’s 2009 NCAA FCS national championship team. He racked up 270 all-purpose yards in the title game win over Montana and was named the game’s Most Outstanding Player.

On the baseball field, Szczur was an all-Big East player and a fifth-round draft pick of the Cubs in 2010. He played in 107 games for the Cubs team that won the World Series in 2016.

Szczur’s accomplishments extend beyond the playing field.

Off the field, he did something extraordinary when he took time off from his junior year baseball season at Villanova in 2010 to donate bone marrow that ultimately helped save the life of a young girl from Ukraine who had battled leukemia. Szczur’s life-saving gift started with his involvement in the Andy Talley Bone Marrow Foundation. Talley was Szczur’s football coach at Villanova. Szczur has subsequently started his own charitable enterprise, the Szcz The Day Foundation.

Szczur hit .259 with five homers and 24 RBIs in 185 at-bats for the World Series champion Cubs in 2016. He was traded to San Diego in 2017. He spent parts of that season and the 2018 season in the majors with that club. He signed a minor-league deal with Arizona last season and hit .322 with eight homers, 28 RBIs and a .967 OPS in 44 games at Triple A Reno. His season was shortened by a quad injury.

The Phillies are set at the corner outfield spots with Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper and Adam Haseley is going to get a chance to hold down the center field spot with Roman Quinn in the picture as well. Szczur will give the Phillies some outfield depth and his ability to play center field is a plus. He is an excellent defender at all three outfield positions and could push for a spot on the big club as active rosters will expand from 25 to 26 men in 2020.

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Winter meetings complete, what’s next for Phillies?

Winter meetings complete, what’s next for Phillies?

SAN DIEGO — A year ago, Phillies officials left the winter meetings with much of their offseason work still in front of them.
 
Manny Machado was still a front-burner free-agent item. Bryce Harper was still in the background and J.T. Realmuto was headed to Atlanta, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, New York … anywhere but Philadelphia.
 
You know the rest of the story.
 
Spring training had already begun by the time the Phillies settled their offseason last year. A year later, Phillies officials departed the winter meetings on Thursday with their heavy offseason lifting complete.

The Phils signed free-agent pitcher Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118 million contract last week and free-agent shortstop Didi Gregorius to a one-year, $14 million deal at the meetings this week. The signings left the Phils about $5 million under the $208 million luxury-tax threshold for the coming season and the club will be mindful of that. It’s likely — though not certain — that any further moves the Phillies make will qualify as tweaks.
 
Here are a few things to keep an eye on over the remainder of the offseason.

The starting rotation

Aaron Nola and Wheeler give the Phillies a “1 and a 1-A,” as manager Joe Girardi said.

Jake Arrieta is healthy and will be ready to go Day 1 of camp and Zach Eflin will hold down a job. Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez are slated to battle for the fifth job, though it would not be surprising to see the Phils bring back Drew Smyly on a minor-league deal to join the fight. The Phils were keeping an eye on Rick Porcello to see where his market was headed, but he signed for one year and $10 million with the Mets. Lefty Wade Miley could be someone to keep an eye on, depending where his market goes. The Phils are committed to having top prospect Spencer Howard start the season in Triple A, but he could have a major impact as the season goes on. The Phils will watch Howard’s workload — because of injury, he pitched under 100 innings last year — so adding bargain depth is a must.

The bullpen

At the moment, it looks like a fairly unchanged unit. The Phils are banking on Adam Morgan and Seranthony Dominguez being healthy again and Hector Neris, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez carrying a heavy load again. Pivetta, Velasquez or both could be used in the ‘pen, depending on the depth that is added in the rotation. If the Phils want to push the tax, they could make a play for former Yankee Dellin Betances. Someone from the system like Garrett Cleavinger or Connor Brogdon could surprise in spring training. How about Tommy Hunter? The Phils put a lot of time into his rehab after elbow surgery last year. Could he be a fit on a bargain deal? Ditto for Jared Hughes and Mike Morin.

The bench

Former All-Star and .300 hitter Josh Harrison has been signed on a minor-league deal. He can play anywhere and figures to have a good chance to make the club. Phil Gosselin, another jack of all trades, is coming back on a minor-league deal and the team has shown some interest in free agent Matt Szczur. Brad Miller remains a free agent and a potentially good fit. Jay Bruce will add power off the bench. Andrew Knapp returns as backup catcher but it would not be surprising to see the Phils sign one or two more veteran catchers to push for work and add depth. Remember, Girardi has said he’d like to keep Realmuto to between 120 and 130 games so he is fresh in October. “That’s where the prize is,” Girardi said. Austin Romine would have been a nice fit, but he signed with Detroit. 

Trades

While it appears as if most of the team’s major moves are done, general manager Matt Klentak and his group will continue to stay engaged on the trade front and you never know if one could materialize. Nick Williams could be dealt. Miami has long liked him. Velasquez could be dealt for some salary relief, particularly if the Phils are able to add starting pitching depth. The Phils would surely listen on Jean Segura, but he has three years and $45 million left on his deal so that would not be easy.
 
Could the Phils make a major trade?
 
After seeing the Realmuto deal come together so quickly last February, it can’t be ruled out. Even something crazy is possible. By crazy we mean Kris Bryant. Yes, he’d be a nice fit as the Phils make a quick push at a title before he becomes a free agent. But it’s a real long shot and it would probably cost top prospect Alec Bohm, and it would definitely push the Phillies over the luxury tax threshold, though managing partner John Middleton has said he would go over it for the right championship-caliber opportunity. Maybe that’s Bryant. There will continue to be buzz about him and the Phillies will continue to be connected to him as long as there is.
 
J.A. Happ could be another guy to watch on the trade front. The Phils made him an offer last winter and he signed with the Yankees. The Yanks are now eager to move his $17 million salary and might attach a good prospect to the package to help make the deal. Happ would put the Phillies over the tax, but, given the Phils’ need for more pitching, it might it be worth rolling the dice on the left-hander having a bounce-back year if and only if the Yanks attach a good prospect or two to the deal. 

What about Herrera?

The end of the winter meetings begins to put spring training in focus and the Phillies have a big decision to make before then: Do they bring Odubel Herrera to camp? Do they release him? The Phils would eat most of his salary to trade him, but there has been no interest.
 
We dealt with the Herrera situation more deeply in this story.

Realmuto's extension

Sometime before spring training, the Phils are expected to pursue a contract extension with Realmuto.

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