Why Nola has NL's best curveball; why Phillies could struggle vs. Matz

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The Phillies will begin their night 3½ games behind the Braves in the NL East. The Phils find themselves in this position because they haven't won a series in a month, going 0-8-1 in nine series since Aug. 6.

While most of the baseball world was off Thursday, the Braves overcame Zack Greinke and the Diamondbacks in a 7-6, extra-inning win.

Moving on to tonight …

Phillies (73-66) at Mets (63-76)

Aaron Nola (15-4, 2.23) vs. LHP Steven Matz (5-11, 4.20)

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. 

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Streaming: NBCSportsPhiladelphia.com and the NBC Sports App

Phillies Pregame Live begins at 6:30 p.m. ET

Trouble with Nola's curve

Aaron Nola is coming off of one of his two worst starts of the season. He allowed four runs on a career-high three homers to the Cubs over 5⅔ innings, though early on, Nola looked electric. 

Nola's curveball is the best in the National League and it was even better than usual against the Cubs. He threw 37 curves — one resulted in a hit, 10 were called strikes, nine were swinging strikes.

Nola has had a nasty curve since the day he arrived in the majors. Over the years, the pitch has only gotten better and better. He never seems to hang it. It freezes hitters on the first pitch, allowing Nola to get ahead, and induces plenty of chases with two strikes.

Take a look at what Nola's curveball has done to hitters since the start of 2017:

• .171 opponents' batting average in 427 at-bats
Ivan Nova is one point better for the NL lead over this span but in 172 fewer at-bats. 

• .260 slugging percentage vs. Nola's curve
Best in the National League.

• 306 swinging strikes on curveballs
Most in the NL ... by 74!

In four starts against the Mets this season, Nola is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA. 

The Phillies are 3-1 against the Mets when Nola pitches and 2-7 when anyone else has this season.

Most winnable game of the series

Though the Phillies have hit Noah Syndergaard this season, tonight's game against Matz is the most winnable of the series. When the Phils last faced the lefty, they scored six runs and homered twice to chase him after two innings.

The Phillies are 17-16 against left-handed starters this season, but they rank 27th in MLB with a .232 batting average and .356 slugging percentage off southpaws. 

Like most lefties, Matz's go-to out-pitch against righties is his changeup. Well, current Phillies have hit .201 against left-handed changeups this season, going 33 for 164.

And that's with Odubel Herrera and Jorge Alfaro going a combined 9 for 22 against lefty changeups. Take them away and the Phils have hit .169.

Who will step up?

Here's a look at how dull the Phillies' offense has been during this month-long stretch without a series win. 

Rhys Hoskins: .180 BA, .641 OPS

Odubel Herrera: .192 BA, .530 OPS

Cesar Hernandez: .219 BA, .627 OPS

Maikel Franco: .228 BA, .692 OPS

Nick Williams: .247 BA, .673 OPS

Asdrubal Cabrera: .248 BA, .715 OPS

Carlos Santana: .260 BA, .785 OPS

Scott Kingery: .262 BA, .765 OPS

Jorge Alfaro: .283 BA, .754 OPS

Roman Quinn: .339 BA, .927 OPS

Wilson Ramos: .362 BA, 1.011 OPS

Excluding the catchers, Quinn and Santana have been the only above-average offensive performers.

The near-teamwide slump can't last forever, right? Right?!

Tonight's lineup

1. Carlos Santana, 1B
2. Rhys Hoskins, LF
3. Aaron Altherr, CF
4. Jose Bautista, RF
5. Asdrubal Cabrera, 3B
6. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
7. Scott Kingery, SS
8. Jorge Alfaro, C
9. Aaron Nola, P

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