sports betting

NBC Sports Philadelphia betting expert Brad Feinberg gives perspective on unprecedented 2019 Kentucky Derby ending

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USA Today Images/Jamie Rhodes

NBC Sports Philadelphia betting expert Brad Feinberg gives perspective on unprecedented 2019 Kentucky Derby ending

If you bet on Maximum Security, a 9/2 favorite, to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby on Saturday night, you were feeling pretty good about yourself.

But soon, things shifted drastically.

After a riders' complaint, the race was reviewed and Maximum Security was ruled to have impeded other horses' progress. 65/1 long shot Country House was named the winner. It was the first time in the Derby's 145-year history that the horse who finished first was disqualified. 

NBC Sports Philadelphia's betting expert Brad Feinberg gave some insight into the unusual race and the devastating emotions for those who bet significant money on Maximum Security. 

"It's the worst feeling in the world," Feinberg said in a phone conversation Saturday night. "It can feel like a borderline death in the family."

Feinberg thought the race would likely put many bettors on "tilt," or more likely to make an unwise bet to get back the money back they believed they'd won. 

He also raised the question of bettors who may have ripped up their tickets for Country Horse immediately after the conclusion of the race.

"I guarantee there were some," he said. 

Though the ending of the 2019 Derby was unprecedented, Feinberg recalled a number of similar instances across sports. 

He remembered the highly controversial Gold Medal Game for men's basketball at the 1972 Munich Olympics, when it twice appeared the United States had beaten the Soviet Union. The game was ultimately decided after an official protest by the United States, with FIBA ruling 3-2 against the Americans.

Other comparable events that came to mind for Feinberg were incorrect scorecards changing the apparent fate of major golf tournaments. Instead of entering a playoff, Roberto De Vicenzo lost the 1968 Masters by one stroke. 

Feinberg also recalled "The Bluegrass Miracle," a 2002 college football game between Kentucky and LSU. Kentucky looked like the winners — head coach Guy Moriss had already received a Gatorade bath. Then LSU won on a 75-yard Hail Mary from quarterback Marcus Randall to wide receiver Devery Henderson.

"You feel like you were cheated," Feinberg said. "It seems like everyone is against you."

Oddsmakers predict Eagles' win total for 2019 season

Oddsmakers predict Eagles' win total for 2019 season

Vegas has spoken and it looks like the Philadelphia Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC East.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, which provides the lines for eight sportsbooks in Las Vegas, has posted their initial win total futures for next season and it paints a pretty rosy picture for the Eagles.

CG Technology has set the Eagles over/under at 9.5 wins this season, which is the most in the NFC East, tied for third in the conference and tied for sixth in the NFL.

Here’s how it all breaks down.

Last season, the Eagles collected nine wins but fell one short of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The win totals posted today imply that the Eagles will leapfrog the Cowboys to be the favorites to win the division.

The Cowboys are in at 8.5 wins and the Giants and Redskins each are expected to win just six games, tied for the lowest amount in the NFL.

Last year, the Eagles underperformed, according to the oddsmakers, as they fell short of the 10.5 wins they were predicted to have at this same stage last season. By contrast, the Cowboys, with 10 wins, overperformed by a game-and-a-half.

If you’re a gambler, it’s time to take a look at the Eagles' schedule and determine how many games you think they’re going to win this season. 

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If you’re simply a football fan, it’s a good sign that the people who predict these things for a living like what the Eagles have done this season far more than their divisional rivals.

There’s a long way to go until kickoff, and a lot can change at the draft, but Eagles fans should feel pretty good about their team’s chances to win the division in 2019.

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Mobile sports betting in New Jersey not worth it yet

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Mobile sports betting in New Jersey not worth it yet

Mobile sports betting is now available in the state of New Jersey.

So is it worth your time to make the trek across the bridge for mobile betting?

Most experts will tell you no. DraftKings is taking advantage of being the only mobile show in town.

Crash course on how sports betting works

It’s known amongst professional bettors that you have to win a minimum of 52.34 percent of your bets in order to make a profit. This is because sportsbooks in Vegas will typically take 10 percent in an effort to guarantee profit if a game has an even money bet on each team. Heavy hitters, or “sharps,” will view a 55 percent hit rate as a huge success and it’s extremely rare that the average bettor reaches that number over the long-term — no matter how many of your friends tell you they’re hitting 65 percent.

How DraftKings mobile betting works compared to Vegas

DraftKings is the most recent company to enter the world of mobile sports betting. However, you won’t be getting the best value betting on their mobile app.

For a traditional NFL game, there is a point spread. Let’s take the Eagles’ regular season opener. The defending World Champs are four-point favorites over the Falcons with the odds being -110 to bet either side. What this means is you need to bet $110 to win $100 and the house keeps $10. That $10 of interest is known as “juice” or “vig.”

The vig alters however if you bet the outright winner (the moneyline). The Eagles are currently -185 and the Falcons are +160. This is because the Eagles are a sizable favorite. You would have to bet $185 to win $100 betting the Eagles on the moneyline. You’ll notice there is a “25 cent” difference between the two moneylines. This is referred to as a “dime line.” The lower the “dime line” is, the more advantageous it is to the bettor. 

In baseball, this also goes for betting the run line, which is like a football betting line. Run lines will be -1.5 and +1.5 runs. If you bet on the team at -1.5, that team has to win by two runs. If you bet on the team at +1.5 runs, they need to either lose by one run or win the game outright.

MLB is where we see lack-of-value on DraftKings’ mobile betting. On the image below, you can see (as of this morning) the dime line for the run line is 40 cents in the Astros/Giants game. Most all of the dime lines for that game is 20 cents in Vegas sportsbooks. The DraftKings’ moneyline dime line for tonight’s Phillies/Diamondbacks game is 30 cents. Vegas ranges from 10 cents to 20 cents.

Is it worth it?

The playing field will level as more sportsbooks become mobile but you get far better value at a live sportsbook for the time being. The question for the consumer is how much are they willing to pay for the convenience of mobile sports betting? If it is value the consumer is looking for, then it’s best to make the trip to Atlantic City or Delaware to have some action on a game.

WARNING PENNSYLVANIA RESIDENTS: if you even attempt to place a bet while in your home state, you’ll get a pretty mean and scary message:

https://twitter.com/_travishughes/status/1026871996464943106?s=21