Jordan Ayew’s goal with seconds remaining in the first half kept us from cashing both our bets from Palace’s 1-1 draw with Brighton. As a result, we are down .3 units. There is little time to dwell on it however, as Matchweek 18 continues today.
As is the case every week of the season, we continue with two bets (at least) for every match on the fixture.
December 22, 2023
Aston Villa (-500) v. Sheffield United (+1200) | Draw: +600
The deck is stacked against Sheffield at Villa Park this week. The Villains are unbeaten in their last six overall, unbeaten at home this season, and unbeaten when they score first in any match this season. An unknown is how will Villa adjust to the loss of Kamara (red card-suspension). Villa overcame a letdown spot last time out v. Brentford which suggests they are a top-end club as opposed to simply on a hot streak. Aston Villa -2 (+140) is a solid play. Sheffield United UNDER 2.5 Corners (+125) for the 90’ also carries value.
Watch More: Highlights from Selhurst Park
December 23, 2023
West Ham United (+145) v. Manchester Utd (+165) | Draw: +260
London Stadium is the scene for this battle between two teams separated by a single point on the Table and yet their results are surprisingly polar opposites to date. West Ham matches have seen 59 total goals scored while Manchester United matches have seen just 39 goals. The Hammers have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two PL outings. The Red Devils have not scored in their last two matches. Manchester United were quite disciplined at Anfield last weekend. Gotta believe they play a little looser in their own end while also looking to score. Coupled with West Ham’s propensity for goals scored and conceded, expect offense in this one. It may not translate into goals but should produce corners. OVER 10.5 Total Corners (+120) and West Ham (ML +145) to escape with the three points are ultimately where this one lands. Extra sweaty: Jarrod Bowen to score and the Hammers to win (+333). With Haaland injured, Bowen is in the game for the PL’s Golden Boot. His standout season continues.
Nottingham Forest (+180) v. Bournemouth (+145) | Draw: +240
Forest pulled the trigger and sacked Steve Cooper earlier this week replacing him with Nuno Esperito Santo. The Reds have struggled up front (1 shot last match) and in goal. Not sure their new manager can heal Taiwo Awoniyi any more quickly than Cooper could have and so the troubles up front may continue for a time. That said, playing at City Ground in front of a new manager expect improved play at least early. Forest OVER 2.5 1H Corners (-110) has value. Bournemouth to score in 2H (-145) is also worth a look.
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Luton Town (+400) v. Newcastle (-160) | Draw: +310
The Hatters have been competitive at Kenilworth Road but have routinely come up short even at home. Newcastle needs the three points in this one and despite being more than a little banged up are more than talented enough to control this from start to finish. The Magpies ML (-160) is OK but lets sweat a little and play Newcastle -2 (+380). A sprinkle on Callum Wilson Anytime Goal (+100) as ultimately the best striker on the pitch buries one (with all due respect to his teammate Alexander Isak).
Fulham (-150) v. Burnley (+400) | Draw: +300
The Cottagers have won 13 of their last 17 at Craven Cottage. The one constant in their last five (3-0-2) is goals. Fulham matches have averaged nearly five goals per 90’ over their last six (3-0-3). Toss Burnley specifically into the equation and the trend should continue as the total goals market has eclipsed 2.5/match in 20 of the Clarets last 21 matches. OVER 2.5 Total Goals (-130) seems eerily safe. Fulham ML (-150) may have a little value. If you believe the offense returns after no-shows at Newcastle and Everton, the Cottagers OVER 2.5 Goals (+210) is worth a sprinkle and a sweat.
Read More: Premier League Table
Tottenham (-125) v. Everton (+290) | Draw: +300
Only City and Liverpool have won more than four consecutive PL matches this season. Everton will look to join that exclusive club when they take on Spurs this weekend. Know that no club in the entire Prem has more wins away from home than Everton. That said, the Toffees will take to the pitch minus Abdoulaye Doucoure who is expected to sit out with a sore hamstring. Tottenham takes to the pitch expecting goals to be scored. They are statistically a better team on the road. If we are to believe Everton’s run of good form continues, here are a few plays worth considering: Everton ML (+290). A hedge of sorts is UNDER 2.5 Total Goals Scored (+138).
Liverpool (+135) v. Arsenal (+180) | Draw: +260
The match of the weekend without question. A Top of the Table special as the Anfield faithful welcome the Gunners after a frustrating, scoreless draw against United last weekend. Manchester United is not Arsenal, but the Red Devils were outshot 34-6 at Liverpool. Anfield is just as difficult a venue to pull points from as there is in practically all of football. That does not mean Liverpool walks to a win in this one, though. Not sure if the Gunners can pull off the upset and secure the top of the Table, but not willing to bet against them either. UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (+110) is very live as is OVER 9.5 Total Corners (-145).
Read More: Klopp Talks Title Chase
December 24, 2023
Wolverhampton (+260) v. Chelsea (+100) | Draw: +260
Its been nearly 30 years since we saw Premier League action on Christmas Eve. Lets take a beat and be thankful before going any further. Chelsea have lost three straight away from Stamford Bridge and Wolves have not lost to Chelsea at Molineux since September of 2019. Wolves have been good at home of late (six straight without a loss) but have conceded at least one 1H goal in eight of their last nine overall (4GF, 10GA). Lets sip a little egg nog and really sweat the 1H at Molineux playing BTTS (+310). If you expect goals but maybe for just one side or the other, consider OVER 1.5 Total Goals 1H (+155). Chelsea OVER 5.5 Corners (+105) has cashed in the last two for the Blues.
Matchweek 18 features nine matches and a myriad of storylines. Enjoy each on NBC Sports and Peacock.
Most importantly, enjoy time with your family and friends this holiday season.
Results:
Crystal Palace 1 Brighton 1
Bets:
1H to end in a draw (+110) - LOSS
BTTS (-145) - WIN
