Premier League: Betting Matchweek 12
Solid week last week for the Premier League Betting Power Index with 12 wins out of the 20 plays. The highlight was probably a scoreless first half in the Manchester United v. Fulham match (+195) or possibly Brighton to win the second half (+135). After a moment to sit back and smile, we up the ante with more “plus” plays in Week 12.
The fixture is loaded. Among the storylines for bettors…
Aston Villa, a scoring machine at home hosts the offensively challenged Fulham. Whose style wins?
Brentford visits Liverpool. Can the Bees slow down what has been a juggernaut at Anfield?
Newcastle shutout the Gunners last weekend. Will they face any resistance when they step on the pitch at Dean Court to take on Bournemouth?
Has Chelsea gained any momentum from their win at Spurs? Or will their woes at Stamford Bridge continue? Will it matter with Erling Haaland and City coming to town?
Speaking of Tottenham, can they rebound from their first loss of the season in what was a chaotic loss to Chelsea?
Here’s a bet for each side of every match for Week 12 in the Premier League.
Who honestly believes Chelsea found sustainable success at Spurs? I thought so. Any faux momentum is snuffed out quickly by City. Erling Haaland and Man City to win the 1st Half (+130).
Probably the sweat of the weekend. Spurs have not scored a goal in the 1st Half in their last two on the road and probably come out looking to be a little more sure of their play in their own end early following the disjointed finish v. Chelsea. Wolves have scored just three goals in the first 45’ all season (home or road). UNDER 0.5 Goals in the 1st Half (+220).
Six of Luton’s ten goals on the season have come in the final ten minutes. Over 0.5 2nd Half Goals (+145) for The Hatters as they net one late yet again.
West Ham United
The Hammers have not allowed a goal in the 1st Half in their last four at London Stadium while Forest has not scored a 1st Half goal in their last four on the road. West Ham 1st Half ML (+138) is a solid look.
Anfield has seen plenty of offense from The Reds this season. Liverpool has cashed OVER 2.5 Goals (+110) in four of five home games this season and so we ride with Mo Salah and co.
Wolves have been more aggressive in the 2nd Half of their games. Tottenham will also begin to push it more after intermission. Little doubt Spurs score in the 2nd Half so its on Wolves who have seen this bet hit in 8 of their 11 games. BTTS in the 2nd Half (+165).
The Magpies visit Dean Court following their thrilling 1-0 win over Arsenal last weekend. Their momentum continues this weekend at the expense of Bournemouth. Newcastle 1st Half ML (+115).
The Red Devils are without a 1st Half goal in their last four home games. Luton Town has scored just six goals on the road this season. UNDER 1.5 Goals in the 1st Half (-165) feels almost too easy, but we’ll play it anyway.
The problem for the Bees is their opponent just gave away points to Luton Town. Usually so responsible in their own end, expect Brentford to have to find some offense in order to match Liverpool. OVER 3.5 Total Goals (+110) is the play.
Offense has not been a problem at Flamer Stadium. OVER 3.5 Total Goals has cashed 83% of the time this season. Lets ride the wave (-105).
The Eagles have yet to score in the 1st Half at Selhurst Park this season. Their opponent, Everton, has failed to score in the 1st Half of their last two road games. Feel comfortable playing UNDER 1.5 Total Goals (+185) or sweat that the two offensively challenged teams play to a Draw in the 1st Half (+100).
The Gunners were held without a goal last weekend at Newcastle. Their offense will come to life against Burnley. It is just a matter of will it happen early or late as Arsenal is averaging 3.5 goals/game at The Emirates this season. We hedge a bit with the play of Arsenal OVER 1.5 2nd Half Goals (+105).
The Clarets are struggling having lost four straight scoring only two goals while conceding eleven in those four games. The Gunners may supply all the offense but in line with the earlier play in favor of offense, we run with OVER 3.5 Total Goals (+115).
Of late, the 2nd Half has been unkind to The Blades as they have allowed seven goals in their last three games after halftime. They have given up 10 goals in the 2nd Half this season in total. Play OVER 1.5 Goals for Brighton in the 2nd Half (+100).
As we mentioned, the Toffees have failed to score in their last two road games. If you were willing to play the 1st Half Draw previously, are you willing to go for a scoreless 1st Half? UNDER 0.5 1st Half Total Goals (+150) will be a sweat.
Seems like this will be a stingy weekend. Goals will be at a premium. No reason to think the Cottagers will do anything other than try and lock down their own end. A 1st Half Draw (+125) is realistic as Aston Villa has scored just two in the 1st half of their last four games.
The Villains are solid especially in the 2nd Half of late having scored eight goals in their last three games. Feel good about Aston Villa ML in the 2nd Half (-120) against Fulham and their offensive offense.
The Cherries find themselves in the Bottom 3 even after defeating Burnley last time out. They are averaging a little over three goals per game. Meanwhile, Newcastle matches are hitting the OVER the 3.5 Total Goals mark 80% of the time on the road. Lets run with OVER 3.5 Total Goals (+140).
Forest have failed to score in their last three road games. They will not find relief at West Ham. Take the Hammers ML (-120) for the game.
The Blues create a fair amount of scoring opportunities. Their issue is they simply do not convert enough of them especially at Stamford Bridge. In fact, Chelsea has been held without a single goal in three of their last four games at home. Earlier we took City to win the 1st Half. Hate pile on, but lets run with City in the 2nd Half as well (+100).
Enjoy Matchweek 12 and let the sweats begin!