In the NFL, they might call them trap games. After a day off, the Orioles play three games with the Tampa Bay Rays.So much attention was focused on the four-game series with the New York Yankees that the Rays were momentarily forgotten.They shouldnt be.Tampa Bay trails the Orioles by a game in the AL East and the Yankees by two. Oakland and Baltimore have the temporary advantage in the wild card race.The Rays and Orioles have split 12 games, and have six remaining, three this week and the final three of the regular season at Tropicana Field.The Orioles have 22 games remaining. Besides the six with Tampa Bay, there are six with last place Boston, four with Toronto and three each at Oakland and Seattle.After the three games with the Rays, the Orioles play at the Athletics. Before the Orioles arrive, Oakland plays an important three-game series with the Angels, who are on the fringe of the wild card race.Now, weve got to worry about Tampa, Adam Jones said.On July 16, both the Orioles and Rays had 46-44 records. Since then, the Orioles are 32-18 and the Rays 31-19.Theyre coming in hot, so move on. Like every other spot, everybodys getting better. Theres been juggernauts and big dogs an now everybodys getting better as a team, Jones said.You just cant guarantee the Yankees are going to get this. You cant just guarantee Anaheim or Texas is this because every other team is that much more competitive and a lot better. Like this year, to win the East, usually its 98 wins or something like that. Now, its going to be low 90s to get this division.If the Orioles can split their final 22 games, theyll end up with 89 wins. That probably wont be good enough to win the East, but could get them a wild card. A 12-10 record would give them 91 wins. That certainly should be enough for the wild card, and if Jones is right, the division.The Orioles and Yankees split 18 games, but now theyll have to win on their own and hope New York continues to sputter.On July 16, the Yankees were 10 games ahead of Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Theyre 24-27 since then.The Orioles arent scheduled to see either James Shields or David Price. Matt Moore (10-9, 3.66) and Jason Hammel (8-6, 3.46) are Tuesdays pitchers. Alex Cobb (9-8, 4.28) and Miguel Gonzalez (6-4, 3.62) pitch Wednesday. On Thursday afternoon at 12:35 p.m., the Rays have scheduled Jeremy Hellickson (8-10, 3.33). The Orioles will probably pitch Wei-Yin Chen (12-9, 4.06). You can make a case theyre as good as any pitching staff in baseball. Runs are going to be at a premium, and our pitching staff is going to have to match some given good outings that theyre going to throw at you, manager Buck Showalter said. Good club. Theres a reason. We look at it as a given that theyre going to be in it through thick and thinThey do a lot of good things other than pitch. Sometimes, it gets lost in the shuffle.The hardest challenge over the final 22 games is playing without Nick Markakis. When he missed 35 games after his broken hamate bone, the Orioles went 16-19. After the broken left thumb, theyre 0-1. Theyll have to do better.For now, Nate McLouth will probably bat leadoff while Lew Ford and Chris Davis play right field. Wilson Betemit will play more than he had been.While there had been talk that the Orioles would seek outside help in the outfield, theyre very restricted in what they can offer. If someone is brought in, they would be ineligible to help for the postseason. Theyd have to take someone who could be a player for next season.Endy Chavez will return on Tuesday. When the Orioles designated him for assignment last month, he wasnt claimed on waivers. Showalter said that when he agreed to report to Norfolk, Chavez would be a September call-up at worst.Chavezs performance at Norfolk didnt warrant that recall. He batted .149 in 15 games. Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette asked Chavez not to leave the U.S. for his native Dominican Republic for a while in case there was a need for him.There was, and the Orioles called Chavez in New York on Sunday morning, and told him to report to Baltimore on Tuesday.Chavez was a disappointment, battling age and injuries. He batted just .190 in 47 games.With Davis, McLouth and Ford flanking Jones in the outfield, the Orioles wanted a more experienced player than Xavier Avery, who had an at-bat in Sundays blowout, his first action since his recall.
The Baltimore Orioles let a lame duck general manager engineer the most important trade deadline in recent franchise history, showed interest in some of the most uninspired executive candidates on the market, attended the GM Meetings without yet having a new GM, and somehow still managed to land the best possible candidate on the market. After spending months, if not years, digging deeper and deeper into a self-imposed hole, they figured out a way to come out smelling like roses.
It’s finally official. The Orioles have hired Mike Elias to as Executive Vice President and General Manager, and he’ll be given full autonomy to oversee all baseball operations. It’s a perfect fit.
For the first time in what feels like years, the Orioles are making a decision that’s been universally lauded.
Elias leaves the Houston Astros having played a key role in their long rebuilding process, a task that at the time seemed similarly daunting to the one in front of him in Baltimore. His experience with a “trust the process”-style rebuild is one of the reasons he is such a perfect hire for a team that lost well over 100 games and holds the top overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft.
Elias is young (35), intelligent (graduated from Yale), experienced (former scout with model organization St. Louis Cardinals and assistant GM for the 2017 World Series-champion Astros), and has a scouting background (oversaw player development and all minor league teams for Houston). If popular narratives are to be believed, Elias’ youth would imply that he is hungry to prove himself in his first GM job, and that he is analytically-inclined, as most young front office executives are in 2018.
That last point is crucial, as the struggles of the Orioles in 2018 have largely been attributed to a consistent lack of interest in modern analytics, research and development, and player development. The Astros have also been quite active in the international markets, and area the Orioles have famously avoided for much of their history, and the hire of Elias could mean the franchise is interested in joining the rest of baseball in mining talent from Latin America.
It’s also interesting to note the Astros’ nearly unprecedented success with starting pitchers, especially as it compares to the Orioles’ equally unprecedented lack of success in the same area. The Orioles, once proud employers of some of the best pitchers in baseball, haven’t properly drafted and developed a homegrown pitcher in decades. Chris Tillman and Erik Bedard have ranged from serviceable to impressive for short stints, but Mike Mussina (in the ‘90s!) is the last true ace to come through the Orioles system.
The Astros, on the other hand, have established themselves as the industry standard for pitching development in recent years, both with young draftees and with acquiring “retreads” from other teams, tweaking something about their repertoire, and enjoying the results.
It helps that the Astros play in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball, but if Elias can bring to Baltimore any improvements for how to handle pitching staffs, that alone would make him worth the investment.
One point to emphasize from the official announcement is the public assurance that Elias will have full decision-making power in his role. Orioles ownership has a tough reputation around the league for being meddlesome and hamstringing their GM’s from operating as best they can.
If the announcement is to be believed (and frankly, it’s hard to imagine a rising star like Elias committing to the organization if he didn’t believe it himself), then this marks a sea change from how Peter Angelos has operated in prior seasons. His sons appear much more interested in letting the baseball people handle baseball things, and that’s cause for optimism for O’s fans.
They could have gone with the “tried and true.” They could have gone with the old-school. They could have gone with a baseball lifer. They could have gone with Ned Colletti.
No shots at Colletti, who by all accounts is a good administrative mind and a good man. But much like Buck Showalter is a terrific manager who was no longer the right fit in Baltimore, a GM of Colletti’s ilk is not what the Orioles franchise needs right now.
Bringing in Elias, no matter the long and winding road that brought the Orioles to that decision, signals a changing of the guard in Baltimore. It signals a complete revamping of the way the front office operates. Everything from the process by which decisions are made, to how young talent is evaluated, to how modern analytics are applied to everything the franchise touches, is going to change under Elias. And, more likely than not, change for the better.
Make no mistake. This is a home run hire, and yes, pun very much intended. There’s finally cause for celebration in Birdland.
Where to begin after a team loses 115 games? That’s the main question settling into Mike Elias’ future when he takes over the Baltimore Orioles' beached ship.
Multiple reports have pegged Elias as the Orioles new general manager. He’s yet another front office member of the Houston Astros to be plucked by an outside organization for a larger role. He’s young, comes from an analytics-fueled front office and walks into a job where there only seems to be one direction to go following last season.
Elias also has local ties. The 36-year-old is a graduate of Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology in Alexandria. He went to Yale where he worked four seasons as a left-handed pitcher. Elias jumped into scouting for the St. Louis Cardinals directly after graduation.
Similar to Nationals manager Mike Rizzo, Elias moved up from a scouting baseline to a prominent decision-maker in the front office. Elias was ported from St. Louis to Houston when the Astros hired Jeff Luhnow to become general manager in 2011. The duo, and rest of the front office took over a team that was about to embark on three consecutive seasons with 100 losses or more. The organization became notable around the league for its fervent reworking of approach and willingness to absorb losses to vault to the top of the annual draft.
In 2012, the Astros selected Carlos Correa No. 1 overall. Elias, then a special assistant to the general manager, has received a large amount of the credit for taking a shortstop who became Rookie of the Year and an All-Star. Nine of the Astros’ 14 selections that year made it to the major leagues. Not all with the Astros. Not all with a large degree of success. But, they made it.
Houston selected burgeoning All-Star Alex Bregman with the No. 2 overall pick in 2015.
However, the Astros’ high-end draft history wasn’t perfect with Luhnow and Elias in place. They selected Stanford starter Mark Appel with the No. 1 overall pick in 2013. Just 27, he is out of baseball after never making it past Triple A. The Astros took Brady Aiken with the top overall pick in 2014. He never signed.
Yet, the organization continued to turn. Bregman developed into a star. Jose Altuve won the MVP award, Lance McCullers, also part of the 2012 class, became an All-Star. Four years after Luhnow arrived to reverse the organization’s course, the Astros had a winning season and reached the postseason. Two years later they won the World Series.
Hiring Elias signals the Orioles, long viewed as one of the stodgier organizations in baseball, are shifting to the modern era. Baltimore was known more for its reticence to embrace analytics as opposed to its use of the information. The move may also calm the ongoing rotation of the front office bosses. Elias will be the organization’s fourth general manager since the Nationals started playing baseball again in the District in 2005.
Among Elias’ initial tasks is finding a new manager. The Orioles fired Buck Showalter after 8 ½ seasons. Three of them led to the postseason. But, the mess of last season forced a change.
They also need to hit in the draft. The Orioles hold the 2019 top overall pick.
Elias will try to conjure a way to resuscitate the Orioles while fighting the expansive cash flow of the New York Yankees and World Series champion Boston Red Sox within the division.
He’s been part of turnarounds before. This one would fully be in his hands.