It’s time for a new Capitals Mailbag! You can read Wednesday’s Part 1 here.
Check out Part 2 below.
Have a Caps question you want answered in the next mailbag? Send it on Twitter using #CapsMailNBC or by email to CapitalsMailbag@gmail.com.
Please note, some questions have been edited for clarity.
Will Braden Holtby be in a #Caps sweater in two years? Can the Caps afford a salary for which he will command and will likely be out of reach of the salary cap for the Caps? Or will the Caps go into the future and fly with Copley or get a cheaper veteran? #ALLCAPS— M (@MattyNats_) July 9, 2019
Much talk seems to be how Holtby is all but gone after next season but not how he could stay. A Samsonov trade to refill depleted prospect pool? Trade Kuzy after another down year a la Semin? Could some signings be seen as creating flexibility for GMBM?— Kevcjensen (@kevcjensen) July 8, 2019
I have talked and written a lot about Holtby recently and the challenges of keeping him. As of now, I believe this will be his last season in Washington because he will be too expensive and it will mean selling prospect Ilya Samsonov because of the looming expansion draft.
That is what I believe as of today, but a lot can happen in a year and yes, I do believe there is a scenario in which Holtby could return.
The first thing that would have to happen is Samsonov would have to struggle this season to the point that internally the Caps would have to reevaluate where his ceiling is. It is going to be very hard to justify giving a long-term contract to a 30-year-old goalie if you have a 23-year-old who you believe can be a decent NHL starter. If you no longer believe that is the case, however, then you can start to evaluate what you believe Holtby’s future may be.
Holtby will also have to be lights out this season. After registering a save percentage of over .920 for three straight seasons from 2014-2017, his numbers have been down the past two years with a percentage of .907 and .911. Brian MacLellan committed to making this team better defensively in free agency so the expectation is that Holtby’s numbers should improve.
Ok, so Holtby had a great season and there are internal questions over whether Samsonov is as good as originally thought. Now what? First, Holtby is going to have to accept less money than he is worth. Sergei Bobrovsky’s contract with a $10 million cap hit set the market this year. Holtby has similar regular season numbers, but he blows Bobrovsky out of the water when it comes to the playoffs, so he could reasonably demand over $10 million per year. With Nicklas Backstrom in need of a new deal and Alex Ovechkin’s contract expiring in 2021, I do not see any way the team can commit that much money to their netminder.
If he stays with Washington, Holtby could sign an eight-year deal, which is one year more than Bobrovsky got by going to a new team. If the Caps offered Holtby the same total amount of $70 million but spread it out over eight years, that would bring his total cap hit down to $8.75 million. That may still be too much, but it at least is a starting point where you can potentially negotiate from. Holtby and Backstrom’s deals will dictate how much space the team will need to free up, so once you get an idea of what Holtby is looking for, then it may be necessary to clear cap space. Who could be available will depend on how everyone plays this season, but with a pipeline full of defensive prospects I look at Dmitry Orlov as a possibility if he has another down year, as he carries a cap hit of $5.1 million through 2022-23.
The next step after that would be to trade away Samsonov. If you re-sign Holtby, you are committing to him long-term and have to protect him in the expansion draft. You cannot lose Samsonov for nothing, so you trade him.
Aaron A. writes: With all the talk about Braden Holtby probably going elsewhere for money and Ilya Samsonov being the next prospect, why is nobody talking about Pheonix Copley? Did everybody but me just forget about him? Copley has won us regular season games and is clearly already ready to go.
When it comes to planning out Washington’s future in net, no one is talking about Copley because he is not a starting-caliber goalie at the NHL level. He is 27 years old, and what we saw from him last season is about where his ceiling is. He won 16 games, which is great, but he also did so with a .905 save percentage. This is not a Philipp Grubauer situation where Copley is seen as a future NHL starter.
Copley can be a decent NHL backup, but I do not see him being anything beyond that, so he won’t have a major impact on the team’s decision between Holtby and Samsonov.
Douglas F. writes: Does the Pheonix Copley two-year, one-way extension mean that Samsonov is further behind in his development than we thought originally and that he won’t be ready to play in the 2019-20 season or maybe even the 2020-21 season?
No, what it means is MacLellan is acutely aware of the Seattle expansion draft rules and wants to make sure he has a goalie he can expose under contract.
While most people are focused on who the team can protect from the expansion draft, you should also be aware of who will have to be exposed. According to the rules, every team in the league will have to leave exposed a goalie who is under contract through the 2021-22 season or will be a restricted free agent in 2021. The Caps now have two goalies who fit that criteria in Copley and Vitek Vanecek. More on why that’s significant later.
Since Copley is an NHL backup, his deal has no real bearing on what the team thinks of Samsonov.
Phil M. writes: Could the Capitals bring up one of their Hershey goalies off and on during the year to develop and determine if they could perform come playoff time? If they gain confidence in them, might they trade Braden Holtby and go into the playoffs with a rookie goalie?
Yes and no.
With the Caps facing a Holtby or Samsonov choice in 2020, I think at some point we will see Samsonov get a few NHL games this season. If you are considering letting Holtby walk, I do not know how you make that decision without getting at least a few looks at Samsonov at the NHL level.
So let’s say Samsonov gets a few games and looks awesome. Great! Now what? Holding three goalies on the roster for an extended period of time is always a disaster, as no one gets enough practice time. Plus, given how close Washington will be against the salary cap, they may not even be able to afford to carry three goalies. At that point, they would have to send Copley to Hershey, which would require him passing through waivers. If he is claimed, then suddenly you have lost that goalie you were planning on exposing to Seattle. So it’s a good thing the Caps have another goalie in Vanecek who they can leave exposed for who fits the criteria laid out by the NHL.
Even if Samsonov takes the NHL by storm and supplants Holtby as the team’s starter, there is no way they trade Holtby before the playoffs. In 2018, Grubauer started the first two games of the playoffs before getting replaced by Holtby. Grubauer was the better goalie down the stretch, but Holtby was the guy who led the team to the Cup. If the Caps are all-in on a Cup run in 2020, you do not trade Holtby even if he has been relegated as the backup and even if it means losing him for nothing at the end of the year. You just do not know how a rookie goalie is going to perform in a situation like that. Having Holtby as the back-up in that situation is a luxury, but if it is one the team can afford, you hold on to it and see where it takes you in the playoffs.
The only way I see trading Holtby during the season as even a remote possibility is if the team is bottoming out and knows it is not going to make the playoffs.
#Capsmailnbc— Daniel Collins (@Collins512) July 8, 2019
With #44 not returning next year, who can you see getting the A? We've seen it on TJ before, does it go to him? Or do we see it go back into the defence and land with Carlson?
Typically you usually see at least one defenseman and one forward get a letter. With Orpik gone and with Alex Ovechkin wearing the C, I have to think they look on defense to replace Orpik’s A. The obvious candidate in that situation would be Carlson. He’s the guy I would have my money on.
#CapsMailNBC who do you think will be making an appearance in Hershey this upcoming year from our recent drafts? I've heard Alexeyev and Leason are supposedly going to be, anyone else?— . (@DragonsAscent_) July 8, 2019
In addition to the ones you mentioned, Martin Fehervary, Kody Clark, Riley Sutter, and Joe Snively are all expected to join Hershey next season. That is in addition to other prospects like Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Garrett Pilon, Beck Malenstyn, Brian Pinho and Shane Gersich who will be returning to the Bears.
Mary B. writes: I used to think I understood icing, but now I’m wondering if something changed I don’t know about. If the puck is touched by or touches a player from either team on the way down the ice, is it no longer icing?
Icing occurs when both teams are at even strength and a player sends the puck from his own half of the ice past the goal line of the opposing team. When it is deflected or touches anyone past the center red line, there is no icing. When it touches a player from the opposing team prior to going past the center red line, there is no icing.
Where it can sometimes get tricky is when the linesmen decide to wash out icing. According to the rules, if a linesman believes a player from the opposing team can play the puck before it crossed the goal line but he chooses not to, it negates the icing. So even if no one touches the puck and it is heading down past the goal line, if the linesman thinks a player could have played it but lets it go looking for the icing, he can still negate the call.
Thanks for all your questions! Part 2 of the mailbag will be coming on Thursday. If you have a question you want to be read and answered in the next mailbag, send it to CapitalsMailbag@gmail.com or use #CapsMailNBC on Twitter.
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