Capitals

Capitals

Though anything can happen in a playoff series and the NHL postseason can remind all teams to be careful what you wish for, here’s why a first-round series with the Hurricanes looks like a good one for the Caps.

After the long regular season, the Capitals’ defense of the Stanley Cup will begin in earnest on Thursday when Washington hosts the Carolina Hurricanes in the First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

In the NHL, any team can beat any other team on any given night and, as history has shown us, in any given series. The Caps will certainly have their hands full against a surprising Carolina team that managed to climb into the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

Having said that, going into the final game of the season, the Caps could have played the Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins or Columbus Blue Jackets in the First Round. Carolina certainly appeared to be the most favorable matchup for Washington.

Though anything can happen in a playoff series and the NHL postseason can remind all teams to be careful what you wish for, here’s why a first-round series with the Hurricanes looks like a good one for the Caps.

Washington swept the regular season series

What happens in the regular season does not necessarily translate in the playoffs. The Caps know that better than most, but it is still encouraging for them to know that they beat Carolina in all four games they faced one another this season.

 

Two of those wins came just over a week ago when Washington faced the Hurricanes in a home-and-home. The Caps needed points to maintain their lead over the division while Carolina was still very much in the playoff hunt. Those were important games. Washington won both.

Carolina’s offense

For the season, the Hurricanes scored 2.96 goals per game. That’s the second lowest among playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. They certainly have some dangerous weapons with Sebastian Aho, Teuovo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov. Justin Williams’ playoff resume speaks for itself and Nino Niederreiter has found his offensive touch since getting traded from Minnesota.

Carolina, however, does not have the sort of offensive depth that can stretch a defense thin which is good news for a Capitals team that is still tinkering with its defensive pairings after the loss of Michal Kempny to injury. Facing one of the less potent offenses in the playoffs will be a good way for Todd Reirden to solidify the defense.

Even if the Hurricanes do manage to light up Washington’s blue line, the Caps are still a much deeper offensive team and should have no trouble keeping up.

A battle of first-year head coaches

Coaching in the playoffs is a completely different experience than in the regular season. Rather than having one or two nights to scout and game plan for an opponent, you have several days to focus on one and only one team. How you approach matchups, lines, defensive pairing, strategy all changes in the playoffs.

This will be Reirden’s first postseason as an NHL head coach. While he has successfully navigated the Caps to a division title, you would have to give the coaching edge in a series to a more experienced head coach. Instead, Reirden will be battling wits with Rod Brind’Amour.

Brind’Amour should be commended for the job he has done in Carolina this year, guiding the team back to the playoffs for the first time in a decade, but he will bring just as much NHL head coaching experience as Reirden will.

The goalies

Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney deserve a lot of credit for what they were able to accomplish this season. Mrazek most likely enters the playoffs as the team’s starter after an incredible stretch to close out the season. Since March 1, Mrazek started in 10 games and won eight with a .942 save percentage and 1.79 GAA. Those are some incredible numbers. In his limited playoff experience (11 games) he has also managed an impressive .927 save percentage and 1.98 GAA.

But with all due respect to Mrazek and McElhinney, anyone who believes going into this series that Carolina has the edge in net is fooling themselves. Perhaps Mrazek can stay hot and maintain that pace in the playoffs, but you would be hard-pressed to find a coach in the league who would take him over Braden Holtby, if given the choice. In fact, if you offered every playoff team that chance to switch goalie tandems with Carolina there are probably only two that would consider it (Calgary and San Jose). Holtby, meanwhile, is one of the top netminders in the entire NHL and has the third-best save percentage in playoff history (.929).

 

Strong goaltending is one of the reasons Carolina got into the playoffs, but the Capitals will still come into the series with an edge between the pipes.

The Caps are just as hot as Carolina

Sometimes success in the playoffs can come down to which team gets hot at the right time. One reason to be wary of this series is the fact that the Hurricanes are one of the hottest teams in the NHL…or at least it would be if the Caps were not just as hot.

Since the All-Star break, Carolina has gone 22-9-1, just one point better than Washington’s 21-9-2. Since the trade deadline, the Caps and Hurricanes both earned 27 points, but Washington did it in one fewer game (Caps were 13-5-1, Hurricanes were 13-6-1).

It beats the alternative

On the last day of the season it came down to Carolina, Pittsburgh or Columbus in the First Round for Washington. While the Caps are a better team from top to bottom than the Penguins this season and should have the offensive depth to be able to beat a blue line with both Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson on it, it is still Pittsburgh and they still have Sidney Crosby. The unexpected always seems to happen in a rivalry and Crosby is a wild card in any playoff series he is in. The Penguins are always a tough out.

The Caps were one goal away from going down 3-0 in their first-round series against Columbus last season. Even after a year to think about it, they still seem pretty mad. Since then, the Blue Jackets added Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. They have the offensive depth to match Washington, one of the top defensive pairs in hockey in Zach Werenski and Seth Jones and one of the top goalies in the NHL. If Sergei Bobrovsky can ever figure out how to play in the postseason, they are going to be a formidable playoff team.

Considering this, Carolina looked like the best matchup overall for the Caps of those three teams.

But this is the NHL and this is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Be careful what you wish for.

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