The NFL season is fast approaching, meaning its about time for Fantasy Football Drafts to get underway. One of the biggest mistakes you can make on Draft Day is wasting one of your early picks on a player who doesn't deliver that value during the season. This is coming from someone who took Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in the first two rounds last year.
While it can be hard to truly determine which players, who look to be in a position for success, may falter, there are a few names who may not truly be worth an early selection. Here's a look at a few names to consider.
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Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 70.0, QB7)
- 2019 stats: Passing: 3089, 20 TDs, 9 INTs; Rushing: 510 Yds, 9 TDs
- 2019 points: 297.56 (QB6)
Allen made a big jump during his second season in the NFL, and the addition of Stefon Diggs to the offense has many believing things will be even better in 2020. That could be the case, but there are factors that could make him a candidate to flop.
Looking at his weapons, Diggs is really the only receiver that has proven he can put up big numbers. While that may open the offense, Diggs will also see tough coverage being that Buffalo doesn't have a dominant No. 2 option. Additionally, Allen still has to make some improvements within his accuracy to reach his full potential.
The QB starred in the run game in 2019, but it's worth wondering just how much longer the team allows him to get hit that often in the open field. Also, there's reason to believe defenses will be better prepared for the second dimension of his game in 2020. Allen is a good quarterback for your team if you're willing to wait, but it's tough to envision him being worth a selection as a Top 10 passer.
Deshaun Watson - QB, Houston Texans (ADP: 44.0, QB3)
- 2019 stats: Passing: 3852, 26 TDs, 12 INTs; Rushing: 413 Yds, 7 TDs
- 2019 points: 331.98 (QB5)
This has nothing to do with Watson, but everything to do with his situation. The talented quarterback just lost his All-Pro option in DeAndre Hopkins, and Brandin Cooks can only help so much. Watson didn't seem to be loving the direction Bill O'Brien has the team going in, and Houston still needs to show that it can protect its franchise quarterback.
Watson has all the talent to be an early-round QB, but the team around him doesn't make it a certainty.
Todd Gurley - RB Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 28.5, RB15)
- 2019 stats: Rushing: 857 Yds, 12 TDs; Receiving: 31 Rec, 207 Yds, 2 TDs
- 2019 points: 188.4 (RB12)
Despite a decrease in rushing yards in 2019, Gurley was still a solid option because of his ability to get into the end zone. That was partially due to the flow of the offense in Los Angeles, and he may not get the same opportunities in Atlanta.
Even if he does, the real risk with Gurley is his knee, which even when he's "healthy" will never be at 100%. In the first few rounds, you want guys that you know can give you 16 games (or however many weeks the league goes). With Gurley, that's not a guarantee.
Odell Beckham Jr. - WR, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 29.5, WR10)
- 2019 stats: 74 rec, 1035 Yds, 4 TDs
- 2019 points: 127.3 (WR31)
Beckham still ranks in our Top 20 options at the position, but don't let the name fool you into making him a first or second-round pick. He's as talented as anyone, and even an "off" year is still rather impressive. Still, Beckham clearly needs some time to build chemistry with Baker Mayfield, and Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper are there to take some targets away.
Beckham can be your WR2 or WR3, but don't look at him as a WR1 for now.
D.K. Metcalf - WR, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 50.0, WR20)
- 2019 stats: 58 rec, 900 Yds, 7 TDs
- 2019 points: 129.1 (WR30)
Metcalf exceeded some expectations during his rookie campaign, and there is hope that he continues to grow in the offense in Year 2. Having Russell Wilson at quarterback helps, but don't reach for the wide receiver just yet. Tyler Lockett is still the main weapon and Metcalf will need to adjust to different coverages from opposing defenses in his sophomore campaign.
Rob Gronkowski - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 76.5, TE6)
Gronk is back -- and while that is exciting -- don't be the person who takes him too early just because of his past. Yes, he's with Brady and looks to be in good shape, but he also was off for an entire season and is learning a new offense with a new team. That new team also has plenty of weapons.
If he can stay healthy, there's a chance he reclaims his spot as one of the best in the game, but that is an "if" at this point. His ADP makes sense, don't take him any higher.
Hunter Henry - TE, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 78.5, TE7)
- 2019 stats: 55 rec, 652 Yds, 5 TDs
- 2019 points: 95.2 (TE8)
Henry was a Top 10 tight end in 2019 while playing just 12 games, which makes him an enticing option for this season. However, there are two things to consider. First, he hasn't played a full campaign yet in his four-year career. Second, his quarterback is no longer Phillip Rivers, but rather Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert. No knock to either, but Henry's ceiling just got a lot lower, at least for 2020.
All stats via FantasyPros