Prince's Props

Prince's Props: Aaron Rodgers' longest pass vs. 49ers on SNF

Prince's Props

* NBC Sports Washington editor Prince J. Grimes picks his favorite prop bet from Sunday Night Football on NBC.

Spread: Green Bay +3 (-105) | San Francisco -3 (-115)

Total: 50.5 Over (-115) | Under (-105)

Moneyline: Green Bay (+140) | San Francisco (-165)

Prince’s Prop: Aaron Rodgers longest completion band of 40-54 yards (+185)

Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet

Aaron Rodgers is one of the NFL’s very best deep-ball throwers. Almost every week, no matter the matchup, he finds a way to net a huge chunk of yardage on a single pass. Even in the Packers’ blowout loss to the Saints in Week 1, where he averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt and the offense managed a sad three points, he completed a 31-yarder.

Rodgers got on track the following week against the Lions, throwing for four touchdowns and completing a game-long pass of 50 yards. I expect some version of that Rodgers to show up against the 49ers on Sunday night, which is why I like the odds on what his longest pass will be. PointsBet Sportsbook has +185 odds for his longest pass to fall between 40-54 yards, which I favor slightly over the +120 odds for a 25- to 39-yarder and +380 odds for anything 55 yards or longer.

 

With the Packers coming off a week in which running back Aaron Jones recorded over 100 yards of total offense and scored four touchdowns, three through the air, I expect the Niners to pay special attention to the backfield. This should leave extra space for Rodgers’ weapons in the passing game to operate, not that he’s ever required much to move the ball in the first place.

If they don’t stay honest on Jones, a defense that has allowed the league’s sixth-worst average of 133.5 rushing yards through two games will pay for it. That opens up the play-action pass and only increases the chances Rodgers finds a man behind the secondary.

San Francisco’s defense has allowed big plays to less established passers this season. Jared Goff and running back D’Andre Swift connected for a 43-yard touchdown on a screen against the Niners in the opener. And last week, Jalen Hurts hit second-year receiver Quez Watkins for a 91-yard touchdown against them.

As previously mentioned, Rodgers was able to complete a 31-yard pass in a game where the entire offense was off. Against Detroit, his longest completion was 50 yards (both completions went to Davante Adams). When the Packers and 49ers squared off last season, Rodgers completed passes of 52 and 49 yards. In what should be a fantastic Sunday night matchup, I like his chances to complete at least one pass in that same range.

Tune into NBC at 7 p.m. for Football Night in America ahead of Packers at 49ers on Sunday Night Football.