It's not a rivalry, but it's not not a rivalry, either.
For the Nationals, playing the Orioles isn't the same thing as playing the Braves or the Phillies, but it's also not the same thing as playing the Tigers or the Rangers. That is to say, it means something.
For many Nats fans, however, the Capitals' glorious run to the Stanley Cup has drawn attention away from baseball, both in D.C. and around the league.
With the Orioles coming to town to finish off their season series (the Nats swept three games in Baltimore back in May when they had forgotten how to lose on the road), casual fans might be wondering how the DMV's other team is doing in 2018.
Well, if the road sweep didn't give it away, the Orioles have been really bad this season. Like, really, really bad. Like, might-be-picking-first-in-the-2019-draft bad.
So, how did the team that won the most games in the American League from 2012 to 2016 end up as the worst team in baseball in 2018?
There are a few factors we can point to, including some serious regression, bad injury luck, a lack of fundamentals, and a tough schedule. On a macro level, however, there's a clear reason for their struggles. The Orioles, who built their 2010s run behind power hitting and a great bullpen, haven't hit for power and haven't had a good bullpen.
The bullpen woes can partially be traced to injury, as Zach Britton has missed most of the year so far after undergoing surgery on his Achilles during the offseason.
Britton was unbelievable in 2016, putting together one of the greatest relief seasons in recent memory, but he hasn't been quite right since. He struggled with minor injuries in 2017, which hurt his trade value during discussions at last year's trade deadline, and then he suffered his major injury over the winter.
When a team relies on its bullpen as heavily as the Orioles have in the last half-decade, missing any contributor hurts. Missing the best pitcher on the team hurts a lot, and missing one of the best relievers in the world hurts the most. Everyone else has had to move up a rung on the ladder, and it hasn't gone well.
Brad Brach made the All-Star Game in 2016, but since stepping into the closer's role this year he's struggled. A 3.58 ERA is unsightly for a reliever, and his 1.70 WHIP is among the worst of any closer. 16 walks in 27.2 innings have been a major culprit.
Mychal Givens, once considered an untouchable trade asset, is sporting a career-worst ERA of 4.04, and his and Brach's struggles, combined with Britton's absence, have given the O's a 4.17 ERA among all relievers, 22nd in baseball, and a .263 batting average against, which is next-to-last. They have no power pitchers to speak of, as they're striking out just 8.18 batter per 9 innings, 4th-worst in baseball.
The power has gone out at the plate as well. The Orioles have hit 77 home runs this season, which is good for 17th in baseball. That may not sound too bad, as it's right around the middle of the pack, but that total is buoyed by Manny Machado's MVP-level season. The rest of the team has hit a combined 59 home runs, an abysmal number.
Until being benched recently, Chris Davis was on pace to record literally the worst single-season Wins Above Replacement total in Major League Baseball history. On his own, Davis is undoing any good done by Machado, and he's getting paid a boatload of money to do so.
It's especially bad when considering how reliant the team is on long balls. Their team batting average is .228, which is barely better than Bryce Harper's .217 average everyone is freaking out about, and their team on-base percentage is a stunning .294, good for dead last in baseball.
Basically, this team never has baserunners, which means they need home runs to score (41.9% of their runs are scored via homers, which is top-10 in baseball). Considering how few home runs they've hit, it's no surprise they've scored the fewest runs in all of baseball.
So, when you see the Orioles' record is an astonishing 20-50 (for reference, that's seven games worse than the woeful Marlins) and they sit 27.5 games back of first place in the AL East, now you know why. The power is out in Baltimore, and it looks like it won't be coming back for quite some time.
Next time the Nats lose five of six games, fans won't have to look too far up I-95 to remember it could be a whole lot worse.
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