It's the dog days of August in Major League Baseball, and most teams have fewer than 40 games lest in the season. Still, that's plenty of time to shake things up in most awards races. Let's take a look around baseball to see who should be favored in each of the major races in both leagues.
1. Mike Trout, Angels
2. Alex Bregman, Astros
3. Matt Chapman, Athletics
Even with some minor shuffling behind Trout, it's the same three names here. Rafael Devers would be an obvious choice in the top three as well if he didn't struggle so mightily in the field. Chapman's all-around game keeps him easily ahead of the Red Sox third baseman in terms of both WAR and these rankings.
Again, though, this award is over. Lock it in. Write it in stone. Mike Trout is the 2019 American League Most Valuable Player. No one else is even in the same ballpark (pun very much intented) as maybe best baseball player to ever walk the Earth, who just so happens to currently be in his prime.
1. Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
2. Christian Yelich, Brewers
3. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves
For the second straight season, Acuna is enjoying an otherworldy August, the kind that lets us squint and see a player who can potentially challenge Trout for "best player in the universe" status. It could happen, one day. But today is not that day.
Per bWAR, the gap between Mike Trout and the next-best player in the AL is 2.3 Wins Above Replacement. In the NL? Bellinger's lead over Yelich is 2.1.
Yelich's unbelievable power surge has colored the fact that Bellinger has been, far and away, the best non-Trout player in the sport in 2019. His incredible defensive metrics, combined with a true offensive breakout, show us a player who will win multiple MVP awards before all is said and done. Bellinger could already hit for power against righties. Now? He leads baseball in home runs against lefties, while playing the best outfield of any fielder in baseball, and still crushing righties.
Last update, I said this is a two-horse race, but that wasn't fair to Bellinger. It's his award to lose, and the only chance Yelich has is finishing with a historic home run total. Even then, it probably won't be enough.
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander, Astros
2. Charlie Morton, Rays
3. Mike Minor, Rangers
Verlander remains the obvious favorite, thanks to his strikeouts and sterling ERA (first and second, respectively, in the American League). It doesn't hurt that he's doing it all for baseball's best team, even despite a career-high in home runs allowed.
Morton, of course, is the one who actually leads the AL in ERA, in addition to currently placing top six in WHIP, wins, WAR, and strikeouts. Minor was left off the last update, but it's difficult to ignore his 7.3 bWAR (no one else in the AL even has 6 WAR), and his adjusted ERA+ leads the league.
In fact, Verlander, Morton and Minor are top three, in varying orders, in several of Baseball Reference's more advanced pitching metrics, including adjusted ERA+, adjusted Pitching Runs, adjusted Pitching Wins, Base-Out Runs Saved, Base-Out Wins Saved, Situational Wins Saved, and Win Probability Added. Most of those statistics are pretty in the weeds, even for sabermetrically-inclined baseball fans. But it's telling that the same three names continually pop up across the board.
NL Cy Young
1. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers
2. Jacob deGrom, Mets
3. Max Scherzer, Nationals
If and when Max Scherzer returns to the mound, he may be able to make this a true race again, but for now, Ryu looks to have a comfortable lead thanks to historic run prevention in an era defined by run scoring.
Let's give a shout out to deGrom too, who moves into the second spot with Scherzer's continued absence. It's well-earned, as the Mets ace leads the National League in strikeouts, is fourth in ERA and has allowed just one home run in his last seven outings at the time of this writing.
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Yordan Alvarez, Astros
2. John Means, Orioles
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
This is our biggest change from the last awards race check-in. Brandon Lowe and John Means led AL rookies in Wins Above Replacement at the time of the last update, but their continued struggles/absence has created enough of an opening for a new arrival.
We were deservedly called out for leaving Yordan Alvarez off a few weeks ago, which we did simply because of his lack of games played compared to the other contenders. We won't be making that mistake again.
Alvarez has been one of the best hitters in baseball, rookie or otherwise, since making his delayed debut in June. As a hitter who came up hot and has yet to slow down for the best team in baseball, it's fair to project forward a bit rather than look back on stats accumulated to this point. If Alvarez finishes the season with anything even remotely close to his outrageous current 196 wRC+, then he's going to run away with this award, plain and simple.
Means' WAR is still more than a full win higher than Guerrero, but it wouldn't surprise anyone to see Vladito jump into one of the top two spots before the year is up.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Pete Alonso, Mets
2. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
3. Mike Soroka, Braves
Well, this stinks. Tatis stays in the top two for now on the basis of his unbelievable rookie season so far. But with his season-ending injury, it appears this award has become Pete Alonso's to run away with as he continues to set home run records. It's unclear who will ultimately replace Tatis in the top three, but for now, no one else is particularly close, even in a truncated year.
AL Manager of the Year
1. Rocco Baldelli, Twins
2. Kevin Cash, Rays
3. Bob Melvin, Athletics
The biggest question here is how much voters might knock the Twins if they end up losing the AL Central to the Indians after jumping out to such a big early lead. Will voters choose to appreciate the surprising run in Minnesota, looking past a late season "collapse"? It's hard to say for sure. Any of these three still could come away with the award, considering where each sits in the standings compared to modest preseason expectations.
NL Manager of the Year
1. Bruce Bochy, Giants
2. Brian Snitker, Braves
3.Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks
Just like in the American League, the top three here haven't changed, and each looks pretty set in some order. But unlike with the AL race, we are going to reorder these three, swapping Bochy and Lovullo.
It makes sense, considering the Giants currently sit higher in the standings. And more and more it feels preordained for future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy to win the Manager of the Year award in his final season, as he rides into the sunset of retirement.
Snitker remains an intriguing possibility as well, though the Braves likely need to maintain their grip on the NL East for him to actually win.
MORE MLB COVERAGE:
- Top of the Class: 2019 MLB Power Rankings