One of my favorite rituals of the college basketball season is reading the litany of Way Too Early Top 25 Rankings for (insert the upcoming season here) that come out the day after the NCAA title game. College football fans have the same ritual, and it makes sense. As soon as one season end, the preparation for the next season begins, and it’s natural to want to look ahead at next season’s major players and storylines.
Obviously, Major League Baseball doesn’t have an AP Poll or Coaches Poll that provide a Top 25 ranking each week, so in lieu of already trying to order each team, we’ll take a slightly different approach. What are the headlines going to read as we enter Spring Training in 2019?
These will be from the perspective of someone on March 1, 2019, and will be half bold prediction and half what people will be talking about in the baseball universe five months from now. Remember, these are reacting to moves that haven’t actually happened yet, and may very well not happen. We aren’t actually saying just yet that the Nats have the best bullpen in baseball. Let’s not get crazy here.
That said, let’s jump to the future.
Revamped Nationals bullpen already looks like the best in baseball
The Nationals have made quite an effort to improve their bullpen in the last few months, and it shows on paper. Their relief corps has been quite the roller coaster in recent seasons, ranking 15th in bullpen ERA in 2018, 23rd in 2017, and 2nd in 2016.
They’ve shown a commitment to adding proven talent in the bullpen, adding Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland, Trevor Rosenthal, and Kyle Barraclough in the last year. Those guys aren’t all returning, but Sean Doolittle will be healthy as well. In the era of “bullpenning,” the Nats could be set up better than anyone to success with their entire pitching staff.
Clayton Kershaw isn’t worried about comparisons to LeBron, Durant after signing massive deal with the Astros
After the 2018 World Series ended, few would have expected Clayton Kershaw to sign his monster deal with the Houston Astros, and the comparisons to an NBA superstar joining forces with an existing super team to try to win his first ring makes sense. That’s exactly what happened here.
Still, the decision makes sense for both sides, as Kershaw gets a fresh postseason start in Houston in what amounts to something of a homecoming for the Dallas native. For the Astros, most fans didn’t realize how big of a need their rotation was beyond the aging Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Now, their one through four is as strong as any in MLB history.
For the first time in half a decade, it’s time to debate who the best pitcher in baseball is
Speaking of Kershaw, he has been the consensus best pitcher in baseball for more than half a decade. With Max Scherzer’s sustained excellence and Jacob deGrom’s historic ERA, however, that title is now up for grabs.
It’s easy enough to still fall back on Kershaw as the default choice, but his back injuries have sapped some of his velocity, and while he still hasn’t had an ERA above 3.00 since 2008 (his age-20 season), he now looks like a regular old ace, instead of the best pitcher since peak Clemens.
Phillies aren’t afraid of the hype after signing Harper, Machado
One title that isn’t up for grabs is Most Improved Team In Baseball, as that title clearly belongs to Philadelphia after their historic shopping spree. It was easy to see coming, as owner John Middleton has been itching to spend bing on a contender. The Phillies are regularly in the top 5 in team payroll when competing, so they had the room in their budget.
Harper and Machado were both perfect fits for a team with massive holes at SS and RF, and the success of their young (cheap) pitching allowed them to allocate financial resources toward the bats. Knowing they have 162 games to get used to being an elite team again, there is little cause for concern in being overhyped.
A new group of superteams is preparing to dominate the National League
The Phillies aren’t the only team preparing for several years of excellence in the National League. Within their own division, the Braves are coming off a breakout year, and two of their three best players are younger than 22. Plus, the Nationals continue to boast a terrific pitching staff, to go along with their own young talent in Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Trea Turner.
The Padres are hoping their 2019 mimics Atlanta’s 2018, as they have one of the most stacked farm systems ever evaluated. Even if it’s not this season, they will be heard from soon. And the Brewers doubled down on their cinderella run to Game 7 of the NLCS by spending big in free agency. It’s a new era in the NL.
No National League teams in top 5 of ESPN’s first set of 2019 Power Rankings
That said, the World Series still runs through the American League. Despite various runs of dominance in the All-Star Game, baseball’s two leagues have generally been fairly close to evenly matched. In any given season, both the AL and NL each have their strong teams and weak teams, and both sides have won plenty of World Series titles.
In 2019, however, the balance of power seems to have shifted heavily in favor of the Junior Circuit. With the Astros continuing to add to the best roster in baseball, the Yankees boasting more power than any team in Major League history, the Indians expecting a bullpen turnaround, and the Red Sox coming off one of the most dominant single seasons ever seen, it seems clear that the American League has the league’s four best teams.
With so much talent leaving the NL, including Clayton Kershaw, there’s an argument to be made for a number of squads at number five, including the current placeholder Angels. It remains to be seen how these rankings will twist and turn throughout the season, but for now, the favorites all reside in the AL.
No team has repeated as World Series champion in nearly two decades, but the Red Sox think they can break the streak
Rightfully, the heaviest favorite of all is the aforementioned Red Sox. Not only did they win the World Series after recording 108 victories during the regular season, but they ran through the 100-win Yankees, more talented Astros, and two time defending NL pennant winning Dodgers in the postseason, losing three combined games.
The Red Sox bring back essentially every meaningful piece of their dominant roster, and many of those players are actually expected to improve in 2019, not regress. Not to mention, they employ the only player in baseball who even has a legitimate argument to being better than Mike Trout. They have a chance to be the sport’s first repeat champion since 2000.
The Angels once again have the most newsworthy outfield in baseball
Speaking of Mike Trout, everyone is going to have their eyes on the Angels this season. Specifically, their outfield.
They already had the best player in baseball in the form of Mike Trout, who continues to shatter records year in and year out. Now, they’ll have Shohei Ohtani DHing thanks to his Tommy John surgery, but he’s proven to be an elite hitter, especially when he’s not splitting his time with pitching. Then, this past offseason, they decided to add to their outfield, bringing in Andrew McCutchen.
The team will be good, thanks to improved pitching and the best infield defense in baseball, but adding a former MVP to the best player in baseball and the most exciting foreign prospect ever gives fans plenty to watch for in Anaheim.
The dregs of the 2018 season look like the dregs of the 2019 season as well
While the Angels are looking for a nice bounceback, most of the cellar-dwellars from 2018 look to be in similar positions this Spring Training. The Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Marlins all finish among the worst teams in baseball last year, and each looks to struggle mightily in the coming season. Given the strength of baseball’s super teams, especially in the AL, these franchises have very little incentive to try to win now.
There will be exceptions, as the White Sox, Reds, and Padres are getting closer to competitiveness, though each still feels a year away. Ultimately, the top 10 picking in the 2020 MLB draft is going to end up looking mighty similar to the top 10 in 2019.
The Nats will be better in 2019 despite the loss of Bryce Harper
Another team looking for a bounceback year is the Nats, and despite losing the face of their franchise and the man who brought legitimacy back to baseball in the nation’s capital in Bryce Harper, they are actually set up to be a better team.
It sounds crazy, but with a much more consistent bullpen, plus the addition of Patrick Corbin in the offseason to further solidify the rotation, the pitching staff sets up to be one of the three best in baseball. Plus, the further development of Turner and Soto, the return to health of Adam Eaton, the reliable stardom of Anthony Rendon, and the return of Wilson Ramos all point to an exciting, high-octane offense.
The loss of Harper might actually help in some small ways, as the threat of him leaving is no longer looming over the team. The window for the Nats is still as open as it ever was, and it’s going to make for an exciting division race this year and beyond.
MORE NATIONALS NEWS:
- MLB Postseason: How did former Nats fare?
- Harper & D.C. Part 1: A Superstar is born
- Harper & D.C. Part 2: Setting the tone
- Free Agency Odds: Who can land Harper?