* NBC Sports Washington editor Prince J. Grimes picks his favorite prop bet from today's action.
Prince’s Prop: Teoscar Hernández 2+ Hits (+185)
Bonus: Hernández HR (+320)
Blue Jays slugger Teoscar Hernández has been tearing the cover off the ball lately, upping his already above average 14.6 Barrel% and 47.5 Hard Hit% to 17.4% and 60.9% in the last seven days. In that span, Hernández went 14-28 at the plate with three home runs, 10 RBI and eight runs scored, winning AL Player of the Week.
Over the last two weeks, he’s hitting .480 and slugging .780, only failing to record a hit in three of 14 games. Eight times in that span he finished with multiple hits. Simply put, Hernández is hitting the ball often and he’s doing it with power.
After a day off for both teams Monday, his Blue Jays visit the Washington Nationals Tuesday evening for a matchup between righties Alek Manoah and Erick Fedde. Considering Hernández’s hot bat and this matchup, his +320 odds on PointsBet Sportsbook to hit a home run are appealing, but I like the +185 odds for him to record multiple hits as a safer play.
Fedde hasn’t allowed a home run in four of his last six starts, including two straight. And while he gave up multiple long balls in each of the two games he did allow homers, only one of those four was hit by a right-handed batter like Hernández. Even as Fedde's WHIP has skyrocketed recently, his barrel percentage is down. So it's completely plausible to see him get hit around Tuesday without giving up the long ball -- especially to a player like Hernández who is hitting righties at a steady clip lately but traditionally hits for more power against lefties.
But on a humid night in Washington, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see at least one ball the park, and Hernández is as good a candidate as any to make that happen, so there's good value in both props. The NBC Sports Edge model gives Hernández a game-high projection of 1.40 hits and a second-best projection of 0.26 home runs for the game.
As for the pitching matchup, +125 odds for Fedde to eclipse 4.5 strikeouts doesn’t move me enough. The Blue Jays simply don’t strike out much and they’ve been even more disciplined as of late. Four strikeouts is near the floor for what Fedde typically gives you, but whether he can hit on the over depends on how long he can stick around, and in case you haven't put it together yet, I have my doubts.
Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet