Prince's Props

Prince's Props: Patrick Corbin strikeouts vs. Marlins

Prince's Props
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin

* NBC Sports Washington editor Prince J. Grimes picks his favorite prop bet from today's action.

Prince's Props: Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 strikeouts, Elieser Hernandez Under 4.5 strikeouts

For Thursday’s rubber match in Miami between the Nationals and Marlins, I’m looking at the pitching matchup between Patrick Corbin and Elieser Hernandez.

Corbin is averaging 6.25 strikeouts in his last four games and gets to face the team with MLB’s second-highest strikeout percentage this season, and the team with the highest K% against left-handed pitchers like himself by a wide margin.

I like Corbin’s chances to hit the over on 5.5 strikeouts at -130 odds on PointsBet Sportsbook, however disconcerting that he's fallen under 75% of the time this season. The NBC Sports Edge model gives him a projection of 5.8 strikeouts, but that comes with a 6 ⅔ IP projection, which I believe is the key. 

 

Corbin has recorded at least seven strikeouts in four of the five games he’s gone deeper than six innings this season, including the last four straight. He should be able to work deep against a Marlins team that has averaged just 2.8 points in their last nine games, which included an eight-game losing streak snapped Wednesday by a slim 4-3 margin.

Hernandez also has an enticing strikeout line at 4.5, but I love the value on him to fall under at +105. Though he’s averaging five strikeouts in two games since returning from a June injury, Hernandez could find it harder to get the Nationals to chase pitches. They boast the league’s third-best K% against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days and have a formula to chase Hernandez from this game early.

Nationals batters lead the league in ground-ball percentage. However, when they put the ball in the air, they have one of the best home run-to-fly ball ratios. Hernandez allows batters to put the ball in the air more often than most pitchers, with a 50% fly ball percentage this season. Like Corbin, if he works deep into the game, he has a good chance to hit the over at -140, but I don’t love his chances to last quite as much.

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