* NBC Sports Washington editor Prince J. Grimes picks his favorite prop bets from today's action.
My pick Wednesday for a Paolo Espino win was going well until the third inning, when Philadelphia’s offense exploded for four runs to climb out of a 3-0 hole. They finished with nine runs, increasing their average through three games this series to seven runs a game.
My props for today stick with that hot Phillies offense, which enters Thursday’s action having scored a league-leading 166 runs since the start of July, with the fourth-best wRC+ in that time.
They’ll be facing Nationals pitcher Joe Ross, who had been lights out in recent games up until his last start. Before giving up five runs in 4 ⅓ innings to the Cubs on Saturday, he was sporting a 1.80 ERA in the four previous starts, having allowed a total of just five runs through 25 innings. That includes a five-inning shutout of these Phillies last week.
Ross has only allowed three hits in each of his starts against the Phillies this year, but interestingly enough, the Nats lost both games due to bullpen play and a lack of run support. Whether Ross gets back on track this game or not, I’m looking for Philadelphia’s offense to eventually break through for at least five runs, making the over 4.5 at -115 odds on PointsBet Sportsbook enticing.
I also like Aaron Nola to limit the damage allowed by the Nats offense. He hasn’t been his normal self this season but has looked better his last two starts. He also can work deep into games, which is why I like the Phillies’ -115 odds to win the race to four runs. The Nationals have hit four runs in every game this series but barely, as they’ve maxed out at five runs and the earliest they’ve hit four is the seventh inning.
For a bonus pick, I also like a familiar face in Washington, Bryce Harper at -110 odds to record 2+ total bases. Harper has been on a tear lately, hitting .474 with a 1.460 OPS in his last five games. Quietly, his .417 OBP this season is second only to Juan Soto in the entire majors. Since the start of July, Harper leads the category with a .472 OBP, and he’s fourth in slugging in that time. Coming off a 3-for-5 with one home run performance Wednesday at Nationals Park, a place he loves to hit, Harper could be due for another big game.
Prince’s Parlay: Phillies over 4.5 runs (-115) and Phillies first to 4 runs (-115)
Bonus Pick: Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (-110)
Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet