Fangraphs gives Orioles 0.0 percent chance to make MLB postseason


As screencaps of 99.9% win probabilities that turned into losses have shown, there's always a chance for the improbable to happen. Even when the numbers make it seem impossible, all a team really needs is that 0.1%.

With the 2021 MLB season getting underway as pitchers and catchers report to spring training, hopes of a postseason trip are alive for every team. Even if the margins are slim, each organization can feel like Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber knowing there is a slight chance.

Well, that is everyone except the Baltimore Orioles. According to Fangraphs, there is no scenario in with the Orioles are in the postseason this season.

That's right, the statistics and analysis site is giving the team a 0.0% chance of advancing to the playoffs. Some others around the league have a less than 1% chance, but no one besides Baltimore has been completely counted out before a pitch has even been thrown.

Of course, the internet took notice of the rather jarring sabermetric. 

Based on what Baltimore has shown in recent years, it's not surprising that the odds are stacked against the group making it to the postseason, but the 0.0% is still a little shocking. The Orioles may have missed the playoffs the last four seasons, but there is some reason for optimism in 2021.

The rebuild is still ongoing, but there's a chance some of the farm system that is top-heavy with star power rises to the professional level during the season. That could include Adley Rutschman, who is the No. 2 prospect on ESPN's Top 100.


There's no guarantee that these players arrive this coming campaign, but if they do, the impact could be immediate. That, and the fact that there are some pieces at the major-league level wasn't enough for Baltimore to even get a 0.1% chance? The Rockies have blown themselves up from the inside and yet that franchise was still given the smallest chance.

The odds may not favor the Orioles at all, but this analysis could lead to a beautiful screenshot and meme should the team find any success in 2021.