FanGraphs released its playoff odds for the 2020 season on Thursday and the Orioles were one of two teams (alongside the Seattle Mariners) to receive a 0.0% chance of making the postseason.
It’s an unsurprising figure for a club that lost 108 games last year and did little to improve its major-league roster this winter. One number that stands out, however, explains exactly why Baltimore was the only team projected to finish with fewer than 60 wins.
When computing its playoff odds, FanGraphs takes into account each team’s strength of schedule. The Orioles are projected to face opponents with an average winning percentage of .515, which is tied with the Mariners and Miami Marlins for the highest in baseball.
The Orioles reside in the American League East, where they’re subject to facing 19 times each two teams that made the playoffs last season (New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays), another that projects as an 88-win team (Boston Red Sox) and a club in the Toronto Blue Jays that figures to take a step forward in 2020.
Outside their division, the Orioles will also face a tough slate of interleague play with the National League Central—a division with four teams hoping to be competitive this year—on their schedule in addition to four games against the defending World Series champion Washington Nationals. They also have to face several AL teams that are chasing the pennant in 2020, including the Houston Astros, Oakland A’s, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox.
Here’s how FanGraphs projects the AL East to shake out.
- Yankees – 96.8 wins
- Rays – 91.5
- Red Sox – 88.7
- Blue Jays – 73.7
- Orioles – 59.3
It’s going to be a long summer in Baltimore.
Click here to download the MyTeams App by NBC Sports. Receive comprehensive coverage of your teams and stream Capitals and Wizards games easily from your device.
MORE ORIOLES NEWS: