* NBC Sports Washington editor Prince J. Grimes picks his favorite prop bet from today's action.
Prince’s Prop: Randy Arozarena 2+ Total Bases (+170)
In the last 30 days, Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena is slashing .346/.404/.558 against right-handed pitching. Those numbers increase when isolated to home games, including a huge leap in slugging percentage to .739.
Tampa returns home Monday from a nine-game road trip to host the Baltimore Orioles, giving Arozarena a chance to build on a torrid stretch where he’s successfully reached base in 18 of his last 19 games while posting a 1.209 OPS.
Arozarena’s +170 odds on PointsBet Sportsbook to record at least two total bases is a great value considering his matchup against O’s righty Matt Harvey, who has struggled against right-handed bats in 2021. The NBC Sports Edge model projects Arozarena to record 1.24 hits and he has a game-high 0.37 doubles projection.
Harvey is giving up a .333 average and .512 slugging percentage to righties this season, though those numbers do improve on the road, more significantly in the last month. Still, I like Arozarena’s consistency to win out in this battle.
I also like the Rays’ chances to hold Harvey to the under on strikeouts, set at 4.5, though I wouldn’t touch it at the current odds of -165. The NBC Sports Edge model has him right at the line, with a 4.3 strikeouts projection, and he's hit the under 74% of the time this season.
While Harvey has recorded five strikeouts in two of his last three games, he hadn’t done it in any of the previous nine games. In his one meeting with the Rays this season, they knocked him out of the game in the second inning, with just one strikeout. The Rays are tied for a league-high in strikeouts this year, but they’ve been better in the last 30 days and none of the last three opposing starting pitchers have recorded more than four strikeouts against them.
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