Prince's Props

Prince's Props: Under 4.5 strikeouts for Skubal vs. Orioles

Prince's Props
Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal

* NBC Sports Washington editor Prince J. Grimes picks his favorite prop bet from today's action.

Prince’s Prop: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120)

Now in my second week of Prince’s Props, today is the first time I’ll make a pick from a non-Nationals game. But with yesterday’s postponement forcing today’s doubleheader and delaying the lines for tonight’s contest, I’ll take a dive into the Orioles instead.

Baltimore is taking on the Detroit Tigers in the second of a three-game set, with Matt Harvey on the mound against 24-year-old lefty Tarik Skubal. Skubal has an above average 9.87 strikeouts per nine innings this season, but I like the +120 odds on PointsBet Sportsbook for him to fall under 4.5 strikeouts in this matchup. 

A deeper look into his numbers shows a sharp decline in his strikeout rate the second half of the season. He had a 10.66 K/9 and 27.1 K% before the All-Star Break but just a 6.65 K/9 and 18.6 K% in four starts since. He landed at exactly four strikeouts in each of those games while going at least five innings each time, including a loss to the Orioles two weeks ago. 

 

The NBC Sports Edge model projects him to record 5.9 strikeouts and he’s hit on the over 60% this season, but I don’t love his chances against an Orioles offense with the fifth fewest strikeouts since the All-Star Break. And while that number is trending better more recently for the O’s, they haven’t been a high strikeout offense all season.

Baltimore is in the midst of a six-game losing streak, having won just once in August, but only in three of eight contests this month has the opposing starting pitcher eclipsed four strikeouts. Those occurrences correlated with the only times starting pitchers were able to go at least six innings in that span, something Skubal hasn’t done in his last three starts.

Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet