The Baltimore Ravens were one of the best teams in football in 2019, and one advanced metric has them on the same course for 2020.
On Tuesday, Seth Walder of ESPN released projections for all 32 NFL teams based on ESPN's Football Power Index. The model takes into account the team's results from last season, changes to the roster and coaching staff in the offseason, Las Vegas win totals, quarterbacks and more. For accuracy, the simulation was run 20,000 times.
The model's projection for the Ravens was about as good as it comes. ESPN has the Ravens obtaining the second-highest win total in the NFL at 11.0. That ranks just behind the defending Super Bowl Champion Kanas City Chiefs who were simulated to have 11.2 wins.
More importantly, ESPN's FPI also likes Baltimore's chances to make the playoff and succeed in them. Though the Chiefs hold the highest percentage to make the playoffs (94%) and the largest chance to win the Super Bowl (21%), the Ravens are right behind in each category with a 92% chance to make the playoffs and 17% chance to hold the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.
Part of the reason the model is so high on the Ravens stems from their potent offense. Last year Baltimore and Lamar Jackson scored points at a ferocious pace and that shouldn't change in 2020. Even as defenses begin to adjust to Jackson's running ability, his growth as a passer will make him just as, if not even more, dangerous. Pair that with the return of Mark Andrews, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Mark Ingram as well as the additions of J.K. Dobbins and speedy receivers in the draft and Baltimore's offense shows no signs of slowing down.
Additionally, FPI takes into account the Ravens defense, and the unit's ability to reload and work toward getting more physical by adding Calais Campbell and Patrick Queen bode well for the upcoming season.
Numbers, expectations and odds don't dictate everything, and the Ravens know that after the divisional round disaster against the Titans last season. However, the metric's projections don't seem too far off from what the Ravens can do in 2020.
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