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Ravens among Super Bowl favorites in 2020, according to one advanced metric

Ravens among Super Bowl favorites in 2020, according to one advanced metric

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the best teams in football in 2019, and one advanced metric has them on the same course for 2020.

On Tuesday, Seth Walder of ESPN released projections for all 32 NFL teams based on ESPN's Football Power Index. The model takes into account the team's results from last season, changes to the roster and coaching staff in the offseason, Las Vegas win totals, quarterbacks and more. For accuracy, the simulation was run 20,000 times.

The model's projection for the Ravens was about as good as it comes. ESPN has the Ravens obtaining the second-highest win total in the NFL at 11.0. That ranks just behind the defending Super Bowl Champion Kanas City Chiefs who were simulated to have 11.2 wins.

More importantly, ESPN's FPI also likes Baltimore's chances to make the playoff and succeed in them. Though the Chiefs hold the highest percentage to make the playoffs (94%) and the largest chance to win the Super Bowl (21%), the Ravens are right behind in each category with a 92% chance to make the playoffs and 17% chance to hold the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.

Part of the reason the model is so high on the Ravens stems from their potent offense. Last year Baltimore and Lamar Jackson scored points at a ferocious pace and that shouldn't change in 2020. Even as defenses begin to adjust to Jackson's running ability, his growth as a passer will make him just as, if not even more, dangerous. Pair that with the return of Mark Andrews, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Mark Ingram as well as the additions of J.K. Dobbins and speedy receivers in the draft and Baltimore's offense shows no signs of slowing down.

Additionally, FPI takes into account the Ravens defense, and the unit's ability to reload and work toward getting more physical by adding Calais Campbell and Patrick Queen bode well for the upcoming season.

Numbers, expectations and odds don't dictate everything, and the Ravens know that after the divisional round disaster against the Titans last season. However, the metric's projections don't seem too far off from what the Ravens can do in 2020.

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Ravens training camp preview: How effective of a season can Matthew Judon have?

Ravens training camp preview: How effective of a season can Matthew Judon have?

Rostered outside linebackers: Matthew Judon, Jaylon Ferguson, Tyus Bowser, Aaron Adoeye, Chauncey Rivers, Marcus Willoughby, John Daka.

If there was one position of “need” the Ravens didn’t address this offseason, it was outside linebacker.

The Ravens instead added to their interior defensive line and inside linebacking corps, but didn’t add a notable free agent or draft pick at outside linebacker. Instead, they’re set to run back the group from a year ago. 

The team ranked 21st in the NFL a year ago in sacks with 37, but second in quarterback knockdowns. Essentially, the team dialed up pressure more than anyone else in the league but didn’t get home enough. Now, they're hopeful they've fixed that problem.

And if there is a trickle-down benefit to the outside linebackers of those additions elsewhere, it’s that the Ravens’ outside linebackers should have more one-on-one matchups on the outside. Notably, that includes Matthew Judon. 

He finished the year with 9.5 sacks a season ago and had 33 quarterback hits — more than three times the second-place finisher on the roster. And now, he’ll play on the franchise tag in his fifth season in the league. As the team’s top pass-rusher, he’s got a lot of pressure on his back entering the 2020 season. 

RELATED: HOW MUCH WILL THE ROOKIE LB's MAKE AN IMPACT ON THE DEFENSE?

If Judon is able to become an upper-tier pass-rusher this season, he’ll not only boost the Ravens’ defense, he’ll cement his monster contract that appears on the horizon, whether that comes from the Ravens or another team. 

But while Judon is the headliner of the Ravens’ edge rushers, in terms of success of the team this season, he might not be the most important part of the front seven. It might end up being whoever lines up across from him. 

Judon has shown the ability to be a No. 1 pass-rusher in the NFL, and with the benefit of an improved defense around him, it’s reasonable to assume he can repeat his 9.5 sack performance — or better it — in 2020. That shouldn't be the worry.

Where the true test will come, however, is who lines up as the second outside linebacker on the depth chart. 

Pernell McPhee had three sacks last season, but missed a majority of the season with a torn triceps. The team used rookie Jaylon Ferguson, who had 2.5 sacks, and Tyus Bowser, who had five sacks, in his absence.

With Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams and Derek Wolfe on the defensive line, it’s reasonable to assume that the Ravens’ outside linebackers will get more favorable matchups. 

And if Judon and the host of other outside linebackers are able to get more one-on-one matchups, the Ravens’ could wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks in 2020. 

So while the Ravens didn’t address their outside linebacker position this offseason, the additions elsewhere on the roster should provide the benefit that position group needed.

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Report: NFL to cut preseason in half, taking away Ravens first and fourth preseason games against the Bills and Redskins

Report: NFL to cut preseason in half, taking away Ravens first and fourth preseason games against the Bills and Redskins

According to a report from ProFootballTalk, the NFL has scrapped its first and fourth preseason games this season and cut the preseason in half. 

The Ravens were scheduled to play the Bills at home on Aug. 14 to open the season, then end the preseason on Sept. 3 against the Redskins. 

RELATED: TRAINING CAMP PREVIEW: INSIDE LINEBACKER

Now, the Ravens’ tentative preseason schedule will have one road game, at the Cowboys on Aug. 22, and home against the Panthers on Aug. 30. 

According to the report, the move was spurred on by two factors: Firstly, that road teams would have trouble moving that many bodies and risk spreading COVID-19. Secondly, that no team has had on-field workouts this summer. Now, with training camps scheduled to start on July 28, teams will have more time to prepare for the season. 

The move came with coronavirus cases continually rising in the United States a day after Dr. Anthony Fauci said new cases could reach 100,000 per day if more preventative measures were not taken. On June 30, the U.S. had 46,042 new cases, the second-highest total since the pandemic began.

Baltimore is still set to report to camp at the end of the month, as is the rest of the NFL. With the new preseason schedule, they’ll have about three weeks to prepare for the first on-field game action of the season. 

The Ravens haven’t lost in the preseason since Sept. 3, 2015, when they lost 20-19 to the Falcons. 

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