There’s a prevailing notion that the Ravens are primed to trade up in the NFL Draft on April 23, simply because of the few glaring needs on the team and the extra draft capital they’ve acquired.
Thursday, though, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta may have thrown cold water on that theory.
On a conference call with reporters, DeCosta mentioned that a significant part of the draft is based on luck, more so than some might think. While the Ravens have nine picks in this year’s draft, with a few needs of players who won’t be around at the 28th overall pick, the need to trade up isn’t as great as it might seem. In fact, trading up might even be an error.
“I think a lot of different studies would say that, a lot of various papers I’ve read on the draft and various things, from that standpoint, you’re always better off having more picks than less picks," DeCosta said. "With a trade up, you give up picks. So you better get a difference maker if you trade up.”
The Ravens have four picks on the draft’s second day, certainly enough ammunition to trade up for a talented wide receiver or middle linebacker — should the team value a particular player as such.
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But trading up isn’t always so cut and dry.
“I understand people love the idea of trading up to get a guy, but I think in general, historically, if you look at all those trade-ups, it’s 50-50,” DeCosta said. “You’ve got to look what you give up to get a guy, and then those picks and how those picks turn out.”
DeCosta pointed to the Julio Jones trade the Falcons made as one that was a home run. He also added that the team would likely try and move up for Chase Young, in the incredibly unlikely event the talented defensive end began to fall in the draft.
This year’s draft process has been dominated by wide receivers, a position of need for the Ravens, furthering the notion that trading up in the first round likely won’t be in the cards.
“I think it’s just the amount of really good players in the draft at that position,” DeCosta said. “We think this year that there’s a really good chance to get a wide receiver that can probably be a starter for you in the fifth round of the draft.”
And even though the Ravens have nine picks, DeCosta is still shopping for more. He said he wants to have a host of picks in any given draft, which can’t be accomplished by selling off picks for one player.
“In general, trading up is dangerous,” he said. “It’s a little bit risky. I like to have 10, 12, 14 picks in a draft, all things being equal. But, if there’s an elite player available, we’d be foolish to not consider that.”
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