Washington Football

Washington Football

Welcome to "Bullish or Bearish?" In this series, JP Finlay and Pete Hailey will pick bold, fan-submitted statements about the Redskins and decide whether they're personally bullish or bearish on those statements.

Next up is this take on what Logan Thomas will do in 2020:

Now, their analysis...

Pete's thoughts

In his last three seasons as a tight end, Logan Thomas has totaled 35 catches for 317 yards and two touchdowns over 40 games. So, you're telling me he's all of the sudden going to greatly exceed those numbers in 24 fewer contests?

Yeah, count me as BEARISH on this one.

Ron Rivera, Scott Turner and Kyle Smith all clearly like Thomas. Those decision makers have used words such as "upside" and "glimpses" when discussing the 28-year-old pass catcher throughout this offseason. 

I also like Thomas. I believe he's got some room to grow as a target, and I also believe that his position coach, Pete Hoener, is the right man to assist in that process. Hoener has helped studs like Vernon Davis and Greg Olsen at his previous stops (Davis even called him "probably the best coach" he's ever had).

But when I say Thomas has room to grow, I mean it incrementally. He caught a career-high 16 balls for 173 yards with Detroit in 2019. Maybe he'll double those outputs. Maybe? But even then, he's not going to come close to the 500 yards. Touchdowns, on the other hand, are more fluky, but I'm still taking the under on four.

 

Am I intrigued by Thomas in the Burgundy and Gold? Certainly.

Am I expecting him to be the most productive tight end on this roster? Yes.

But am I preparing for him to be a truly effective piece on the offense? Nope.

Sorry if that sounds grouchy. I really try to not be grouchy, especially since I work with JP, who's plenty grouchy on his own. But I'm also trying to be realistic, too.

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JP's thoughts

I'm not sure the entire Redskins collection of tight ends will amass 500 yards, let alone just Thomas. In his 42 career NFL games, Thomas is averaging less than 10 receiving yards-per-game.

The point isn't to dunk on Thomas, who should stabilize the Redskins blocking tight end role immediately and could provide nice contributions as a pass catcher. He can get better; I'm not ruling that out. But to expect him to double his career output in one season seems beyond bullish. It seems foolish. 

I'm BEARISH on this one as well. And I'll go further than Pete: I'm not even convinced Thomas will be the Redskins' leader in receptions at tight end. 

Though fans have begun to target Jeremy Sprinkle as a problem, he outdid Thomas last year by a comfortable margin.  Sprinkle had 26 catches for 241 yards last year; Thomas had 16 for 173. Both guys played all 16 games. Plus, Thomas was playing in Detroit where Matthew Stafford started the first eight games, delivering much better QB play than anything Sprinkle saw in Washington in 2019. 

It's no surprise, but Pete showed his lack of research by predicting Thomas would be the Redskins' most productive tight end.

Think about it this way: Vernon Davis played in just four games last year (10 grabs, 123 yards) and nearly matched Thomas' output. In four games. Hale Hentges played in just 11 games and still had eight catches for 103 yards. 

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Thomas could prove to be the Redskins' most important tight end. Durability and physicality on the line at tight end would be a welcome sight in Washington. Still, it's a stretch to predict Thomas to be the team's most productive tight end, and it's a crazy reach to expect 500 yards. 

If that happens, it would be a great story. Don't hold your breath, though.   

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