Redskins

Redskins

Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, June 27, 29 days before the Washington Redskins start training camp.  

Can Derrius Guice break 1,000 yards rushing this year?

This fan question is from Twitter:

https://twitter.com/pippa1973/status/1010180216025690113

Before taking a snap in a game, Derrius Guice has become the most popular Redskins rookie since Robert Griffin III in 2012. Will he live up to the hype? Just like we did yesterday when predicting the team’s record, let’s break out $100 in imaginary casino chips and look at expectations for Guice in 2018.

0-400 yards, $10—A floor of 400 yards is about right for Guice. Last year 10 rookie running backs gained at least 400 yards including Wayne Gallman of the Giants and Matt Breida of the 49ers. It’s not a high bar and one that a back with Guice’s talent should be able to clear.

401-750 yards, $25—This is the lower end of the sweet spot for Guice. Last year, Samaje Perine started only eight games, got 175 carries, played behind a banged-up offensive line and still picked up 603 yards. If Guice gets the same 175 carries and averages four yards per, he will get 700 yards.

751-999 yards, $40—Assuming he and the offensive line both stay reasonably healthy, Guice should end up somewhere in this range. This also assumes that Alex Smith and the receiving corps are good enough to keep defenses from crowding the box. One other thing—Gruden will need to stick with his normal practice of having one primary back. Unless injuries have factored in, as the Redskins’ head coach and Bengals’ offensive coordinator Gruden has mostly stuck with using one primary back.

 

1,000-1200 yards, $20—It will take two factors for Guice to push past the thousand-yard mark. Gruden will have to give him a fairly heavy workload. Fifteen carries a game is about what a back needs to average the 62.5 yards per game that will get him over 1,000 yards. If Gruden doesn’t give him the rock often enough, Guice could get to a grand with fewer carries if he can break two or three long runs of 50 yards or more. He has the speed to do it but a lot has to come together to make that happen multiple times over the course of a season.

1,201 yards or more, $5—This would have Guice gaining an average of 75 yards or more per game for 16 games. He probably won’t get enough carries to do that. As an offensive coordinator and head coach, Gruden has had three backs gain over 1,000 yards. But Alfred Morris (2014), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2012), and Cedric Benson (2011) all were short of 1,100 yards. Gruden isn’t as pass happy as some would have you believe, but I don’t see him giving a rookie back enough work to top 1,200 yards. Guice may eventually have a big season, but it’s not likely to happen in 2018.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page, Facebook.com/TandlerNBCS and follow him on Twitter  @TandlerNBCS and on Instagram @RichTandler.

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Timeline

Days until:

—Training camp starts (7/26) 29
—Preseason opener @ Patriots (8/9) 43
—Roster cut to 53 (9/1) 66

The Redskins last played a game 178 days ago. They will open the 2018 NFL season at the Cardinals in 74 days.

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