Redskins

Redskins

Here is what you need to know on this Thursday, May 17, five days before the Washington Redskins start OTAs.  

Best case, worst case for Redskins on offense

Here is a look at realistic best- and worst-case scenarios for Redskins on offense:

QB Alex Smith

Best: 4,100 yards, 24 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 7.7 yards/attempt

Worst: 3,400 yards, 18 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 7.0 yards/attempt

His best case is his 2017 season in Kansas City, his career year. I shaved a little bit off of the yards per attempt because I don’t see him completing as many deep passes this year. The worst case is about his average over his first four years with the Chiefs. The key will be how quickly he adjusts to his new offense and teammates. One note: when he changed teams in 2013, moving from the 49ers to the Chiefs, he made the Pro Bowl.

WR Josh Doctson

Best: 60 receptions, 850 yards, 10 TD

Worst: 45 receptions, 650 yards, 8 TD

Doctson played 16 games last year, 752 snaps, and he was targeted just 78 times. That is a ridiculously low number for the guy who is supposed to be the No. 1 receiver; 70 NFL players were targeted more often. The best case is based on him having similar production while getting 130 targets. That’s not a huge number; 12 players have more targets last year. The worst case is based on Doctson getting 100 targets, a number exceeded by 35 players last year. 

 

WR Jamison Crowder

Best: 70 receptions, 950 yards, 8 TD

Worst: 60 receptions, 800 yards, 4 TD

I’m not sure why there is a perception that Crowder had a big dropoff last year. Compared to 2016, he had one fewer reception and 58 fewer yards. The TDs did drop from seven to three but it’s possible that 2016 will be an outlier in his career and his normal output will be four or five. He’s a steady producer so his best and worst cases are fairly close. 

WR Paul Richardson

Best: 50 receptions, 750 yards, 6 TD

Worst: 35 receptions, 450 yards, 3 TD

This is a tough one. We have a receiver new to a team that also has a quarterback who is new to the team. He has only one season of full-time play under his belt, which was last year. I put his best case at slightly better than last year, giving him credit for potentially being a fast learner. 

RB Chris Thompson

Best: 470 rush yards, 5 rush TD, 60 receptions, 625 yards, 6 TD

Worst: 325 rush yards, 2 rush TD, 45 receptions, 450 yards, 3 TD

The best case here is Thompson’s 2017 season projected out over 16 games. Of all of the leading pass catchers, he should have the easiest adjustment to Smith. Injuries are a concern with him, but he seemed to have solved his problems with the nagging injuries in 2016 and the beginning of last year. He got his leg rolled up on in New Orleans and that is going to result in a major injury to almost any player. 

RB Derrius Guice

Best:1,100 rush yards, 6 rush TD

Worst: 600 rush yards, 3 rush TD

The best case is based on him getting 15 carries per game and averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If he is running that well the temptation to give it to him more often will be there. Guice should be able to handle a heavier workload; he averaged almost 20 rushing attempts per game at LSU last year. But it’s a long season and the Redskins need to be wary of wearing him out too soon. 

I didn’t make predictions for Jordan Reed, due to him having greater injury uncertainty than most players, or for Samaje Perine or Rob Kelley because their roles in the offense are up in the air.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page, Facebook.com/TandlerNBCS and follow him on Twitter  @TandlerNBCSand on Instagram @RichTandler

 

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Timeline  

Days until:

—Minicamp (6/12) 26
—Training camp starts (7/26) 70
—Preseason opener @ Patriots (8/9) 84

The Redskins last played a game 137 days ago. They will open the 2018 NFL season at the Cardinals in 115 days. 

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