With live sporting events on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the eyes of the sports world will be glued to the NFL Draft on April 23.
And that means the eyes of the sports betting world will also be all over the NFL Draft. There are countless wagers to be made on the draft and I will take a look at a handful over the next couple weeks.
Who will be the second overall pick?
Chase Young (Ohio St.) -715
Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) +400
Joe Burrow (LSU) +3300
Justin Herbert (Oregon) +3300
Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) +3300
Despite a new coaching staff in town, I would be stunned if the Redskins used the second overall pick on Tua Tagovailoa. But does that mean Chase Young is a lock to be the second pick? Not necessarily.
The Redskins do not have a second-round pick this year after moving back into the first round last year to select Montez Sweat. Washington head coach Ron Rivera has said that not having a second-round pick is a “burden.” However, talking to reporters on Tuesday, Rivera struck an interesting tone.
“If you're going to make a trade and you're going to go back, that guy you're going to take at that spot has to be able to make the kind of impact you need to validate missing an opportunity to take a player that's a high-impact guy,” Rivera said.
It sounds like Young is the guy, but it doesn’t completely rule out a trade. If Miami wants Tua, they have the assets to move up. The Dolphins own six of the first 70 picks in the NFL Draft: No. 5, 18, 26, 39, 56, 70. Miami also has three fifth-round picks and three seventh-round picks.
Come the night of April 23, I do believe the Redskins will select Young, the Ohio State defensive end and DeMatha Catholic alum. But if you’re putting money down, is it worth the risk? At -715, you have to put down $715 to make $100.
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We have seen plenty of examples of organizations trading up to get the quarterback of the future. In 2016, the Rams moved from 15 to secure Jared Goff with the first overall pick and the Eagles made multiple trades to get to two and select Carson Wentz in the same draft. The odds on Chase Young are too rich for my blood.
My official play: Pass
What team will draft Tua Tagovailoa?
Miami Dolphins -110
Los Angeles Chargers +160
Washington Redskins +1100
Jacksonville Jaguars +1100
While we all would love to hit on an 11-1 long shot, I don’t think the Redskins (or the Jaguars) are going to draft Tua Tagovailoa. This is a two-team race between the Dolphins and the Chargers. Miami has been searching for a franchise quarterback since Dan Marino retired in 2000. The franchise passed on signing Drew Brees in 2006 due to concerns over his injured shoulder and opted for Dante Culpepper instead. In 2012, the Dolphins used the eighth overall pick on Ryan Tannehill. He is now a Tennessee Titan.
Can Miami afford to miss on another quarterback? How healthy is Tua's hip? Do the Dolphins like Oregon’s Justin Herbert more than Tua? ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. recently said “there has been some buzz around Herbert to Miami, but it's still early.”
These are all legitimate questions to think about when deciding if you want to put some money down on the Dolphins.
What about the Chargers? Does Los Angeles, a team with a small fan base, need to make a splash in the draft?
If the Detroit Lions use the third pick and Tua is still available at four, I would not be surprised if the Chargers called the Giants and traded up to select the former Alabama quarterback.
While I understand there has been a lot of smoke recently about the Dolphins not being in love with Tua and there are legitimate concerns with his injury history…it makes too much sense.
My official play: Dolphins -110
First Wide Receiver selected?
Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) -121
CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) +175
Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) +250
The 2020 NFL Draft wide receiver class is loaded. There are plenty of quality players at the position to be had on the second and third days of the draft. That said, three players will go in the top half of the first round. But, who will go first?
If you search, one mock draft will say Jerry Jeudy, another will say CeeDee Lamb, and a third will say Henry Ruggs III. The New York Jets own the 11th overall pick and after losing Robby Anderson, New York will likely be in the market for a top tier wide receiver. The Las Vegas Raiders at 12 need help at wide receiver and the San Francisco 49ers, who traded DeForest Buckner to Indianapolis for the 13th pick, lost Emmanuel Sanders to free agency. There is a good chance all three will be gone 13.
Another team to keep an eye is the Denver Broncos at 15. Could John Elway look to trade up to add another weapon for Drew Lock?
This comes down to value here. Ruggs ran a blazing 4.27 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. While he is not considered the most complete receiver in the draft, I could see a team being enamored by his speed. Additionally, there has also been some steam on Ruggs being the first receiver selected. I personally played Ruggs being the first wide receiver selected at +400 two weeks ago. I still believe there is value there now.
My official play: Henry Ruggs III +250
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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