When Capitals training camp opens in September, there will not be much intrigue when it comes to the top-nine on offense. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Carl Hagelin, Lars Eller, Richard Panik, and Jakub Vrana—assuming he is re-signed—will make up the team’s top three lines.
But with two new additions to the roster through free agency, it appears Todd Reirden is going to have to make a decision as to who plays on the fourth line.
The fourth line was an area in which the team needed to improve and general manager Brian MacLellan was aggressive in addressing that need giving the team at least five players battling for three spots in the lineup. Here’s a breakdown of the only real roster battle offensively for the Caps heading into next season.
Last year the departure of Jay Beagle made fourth-line center one of the few spots up for grabs in training camp. That is not the case this year. Dowd won the job and seems pretty entrenched in this role moving forward as he was given a three-year extension. The offensive upside is limited as his eight goals last season were a career-high, but his 22 points matched Beagle’s production from the year prior so it is not as if the offensive output of the fourth line has taken a step back with Dowd.
Dowd was also a regular on the penalty kill and he was the only center on the team to have a faceoff win percentage of over 50 at 51.9-percent.
Pencil him in
When you break down the Caps’ moves this offseason, it is pretty clear the goal for MacLellan was to improve the team defensively. Hathaway’s career-high in goals is 11, which isn’t bad for a fourth-liner, but the real asset he brings is his defensive acumen. He averaged 1:42 of shorthanded ice time per game last season with the Calgary Flames.
But the real reason Hathaway appears to essentially be a lock to play a significant role on the fourth line next season is his contract. You do not sign a fourth-line player for four years at $1.5 million per year if you think he is going to spend most of the season as a healthy scratch. That’s a significant contract for a player with his role so it is clear the team envisions him being a regular in the lineup.
The guys who need to impress in training camp
Hathaway’s contract is a dead giveaway as to what the team envisions his role is going forward. Leipsic was also a free agent signing, but his deal is only for one year and $700,000. MacLellan seems to love going for those low-risk contracts and this is the latest example.
Washington will be Leipsic’s fifth NHL team in his three-year NHL career. In 126 career games, he has 13 goals and 48 total points. His best season offensively came last year as he set career-highs in goals (seven) and points (23) with the Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings.
The thing about Leipsic to keep in mind is that this was a move MacLellan did not have to make. After the team signed Panik and Hathaway, many assumed the team was done. At that point, the team appeared to have a full offensive roster with 12 forwards under contract plus Chandler Stephenson qualified as a restricted free agent. Yet, MacLellan decided to sign Leipsic anyway which all but ensures that someone is going to be moved before the start of the season. The team is just too close against the cap to carry two extra forwards and someone will have to be sent to Hershey or traded.
This is not a move you make unless you are not satisfied with what your fourth line options are. Leipsic will have to earn his spot in training camp, but I would give him the inside track over Stephenson and Travis Boyd at this point.
Boyd’s 2018-19 season had its ups and downs. His first full season in the NHL got off to a rocky start as an injury kept him out of the lineup for all of October, thus ending any chance he had of beating out Dowd at fourth-line center. It may have been moot anyway as Boyd appears to be more of an NHL wing than a center, but that versatility can be an asset.
Boyd’s offensive numbers were reasonably good with five goals and 15 assists in 53 games. MacLellan’s moves this offseason, however, show that he wants the fourth line to improve defensively and that was a real struggle for Boyd. His 5-on-5 high-danger chances for percentage in 2018-19 was the lowest on the team at 39.52-percent and was among the worst in the NHL. When you watch him play, it does not appear that he has adjusted to a bottom-six role very well as he continues to use ineffective offensive moves that, while they may have been successful in college and the AHL, he just does not have the skill to pull them off at the NHL level. It is frustrating for a team when the fourth line turns the puck over because Boyd tries a spin move in front of the net that is easily stopped by the defense and pushed up and out of the zone.
Boyd needs to stop playing like a top-six AHL forward and start playing like a bottom-six NHL forward because that is what his skill dictates his NHL future will be.
On the outside looking in
Stephenson has great speed and can be an effective penalty killer, but it is hard not to see the additions of Hathaway and Leipsic as an indictment of his play. In 2017-18, he scored six goals and 12 assists with a plus-13. In 2018-19, he managed just five goals and six assists and was a minus-13 despite getting comparable ice time from the season before. His stats were not the result of a reduced role, just reduced effectiveness.
It is not just the free agent moves that show you he may be in trouble. Look back to last season when the team acquired Hagelin. One of Hagelin’s best assets is how effective a penalty killer he is. That is supposed to be an asset of Stephenson’s as well. Prior to the team trading for Hagelin, Stephenson averaged 1:54 of shorthanded ice time per game. After? Just 0:58. His shorthanded ice time dropped by almost a full minute which suggests the coaches may not have been all that thrilled with his play on the PK last season.
If MacLellan felt he had prospects ready to fill out the roster, he would have done that instead of turning to free agency. It would have been a cheaper alternative both in terms of salary and term. But MacLellan instead went for veteran players and bluntly explained that decision afterward.
“We don't have young forwards ready to step in and play third line,” he said on a conference call on the opening day of free agency. That tells you pretty much all you need to know about where the team sees its forward prospect depth.
If there are any prospects who can make a push for a spot on the fourth line next season, there are two to keep in mind. Axel Jonsson-Fjallby is a player with a similar skillset to Hagelin. He has NHL speed and can be a solid penalty killer and bottom-six player.
The second is Shane Gersich, a fast player who came straight to the Caps after signing out of college in 2018, but who spent the last season in the AHL with Hershey.
Jonsson-Fjallby left early in the season to return to his native Sweden last year and has only 16 games of North American experience. It is hard to imagine he will be ready to make the jump to North American’s highest level out of training camp. Having watched Gersicih play in the playoffs, he looks like a player still very much in need of another year in the AHL to adjust to playing in the pros.
MORE CAPITALS NEWS
- Bye, Brett: Connolly signs with Florida Panthers
- Offseason Tracker: Recapping all the moves
- Power Ranks: NHL offseason edition