Need to Know: Assessing the Redskins' chances game by game


Here is what you need to know on this Saturday, November 26, 8 days before the Washington Redskins play the Arizona Cardinals.


Today's schedule: Off day

Days until: Redskins @ Cardinals 8; Redskins @ Eagles 15; Panthers @ Redskins 23

Looking at the rest of the Redskins’ games

The Redskins have five games remaining on their schedule. Three wins would give them a record of 9-6-1 and a very good shot at the playoffs. More than three almost certainly has them playing in the postseason; two or fewer will have them in trouble.

Let’s take a look at the Redskins’ remaining five opponents and I’ll give my confidence level on the Redskins’ chances of beating each one of them.

For comparison, the Redskins are, as noted, 9-6-1 and their weighted DVOA through Week 11 is 12.7%, ranked 7th.

Cardinals, 4-5-1, DVOA -2.1%, 19th—Carson Palmer, who had a great 2015 season, has faded to a level somewhere below mediocrity, with a 61.5 percent completion rate and a passer rating of 83.6. But Cardinals running back David Johnson is perhaps the best running back in the league not named Zeke. I have concerns that Johnson will leave cleat marks all over the Redskins’ defense just like Elliott did. Confidence the Redskins will win: Moderately low



Eagles, 5-5, DVOA 24.3%, 2nd—Even the Football Outsiders guys have some issues with the Eagles’ DVOA standing. I think they are what their record says they are. Carson Wentz is learning, and head coach Doug Pederson is in over his head (not that he won’t improve over time). They do have a good defense but the Redskins as a team and Kirk Cousins in particular just seem to have their number with five straight wins over them. Confidence: Moderately high

Panthers, 4-6, DVOA -4.7%, 21st—Cam Newton has attempted only 6.9 runs per game, tied for lowest rate of his career. With the diminished threat of the run his 56.5 percent completion rate has become a glaring issue. The Panthers are still second in the NFL is rushing yards so they can take advantage of the Redskins’ defensive weakness. Confidence: Moderate

Bears, 2-8, DVOA -5.0 23rd—This team wasn’t very good to begin with and then an incredible rash of injuries has piled up as the season has gone on. The latest was to quarterback Jay Cutler, who may miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. In short, they’re a mess. Confidence: Very high


Giants, 7-3, DVOA 3.3% 15th—We’ll know more about the Giants when this soft part of their schedule (Bears last week, Browns this week) is over and they face three division leaders in the Steelers, Cowboys, and Lions. Right now I like the Redskins at home but I won’t have a very strong feeling until the game gets closer. Confidence: Moderate

Agree with my assessments? Disagree? Scroll down to leave a comment.

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