Jordan Reed had his breakout season in 2015, leading the Redskins in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. He was rewarded with a five-year, $46.75 million contract extension in the spring. When you get the big money, the big question always is, can you do it again? Tandler and Tarik look at Reed’s numbers from a year ago and predict if he'll go over or under.

Receptions: 2015 total—87

Tandler: It will be a challenge for Reed to top last year given the other talented options Kirk Cousins has to work with. Although Reed is the most talented pass catcher on the team, they added Vernon Davis and Josh Doctson and it’s not likely that DeSean Jackson will miss as many games as he did last year. Will Reed get targeted 114 times again like he did last year? I think his targets will be closer to 100 and that will make it very hard for him to top 87 receptions. Under

El-Bashir: Even if the Redskins throw the ball more in 2016, as most suspect they’ll do based on the team’s current roster composition, I have to agree with Tandler here. Assuming no one misses a protracted amount of time due to injury, one of the biggest challenges Cousins and Jay Gruden figure to face will be spreading the ball around enough to keep the Redskins’ ridiculously deep cadre of pass catchers happy and engaged. As things stand now, I’d expect a healthy Reed to approach last year’s receptions total. Topping it, though, is going to be awfully tough. Under    


Receiving yards: 2015 total—952

Tandler: Even if Reed goes under in receptions he won’t necessarily go under in yards. If he is down in receptions he would have to increase his yards per catch from the 10.9 average he posted last year. Let’s say he catches 80 passes. To get to 1,000 yards receiving he would have to average 12.5 yards per catch. Last year six tight ends averaged 12.5 or better so I believe that is quite possible for Reed to at least match that. Over

El-Bashir: In three seasons, Reed’s average hasn’t varied a whole lot, ranging from a career-best to 11.1 yards per catch as a rookie to 10.9 last season. I don’t see that changing a whole lot. Combine that with fewer receptions, I can also see his final yardage number decreasing. Just to be clear: I’m not saying that Reed will be deemphasized or struggle to under the weight of a huge new contract. I just think he’s going to have a top-five year for tight ends in 2016, not another record-breaking one. Under      

Touchdown receptions: 2015 total—11

Tandler: All 11 of Reed’s touchdown catches last year were on plays from the red zone; his longest covered 18 yards. The bad news is that Cousins now has two new very attractive red zone targets in Davis and Doctson and that could mean fewer chances for Reed down close to the goal line. The good news is that Cousins should push the ball downfield to Reed more often as the chemistry improves between the two. That should allow Reed to make up a couple that he might miss out on in the red zone. I don’t think that the longer TDs will complete compensate, however. Under

El-Bashir: Cincinnati’s Tyler Eifert hauled in 13 touchdown passes last season—the most among all tight ends. And Eifert did it in just 13 games. The last time Rob Gronkowski played in all 16 regular season games? He had 17. Here’s the one category where I can see Reed improving...if, of course, he stays on the field. Reed's size, ability to win one-on-one situations and determination around the goal line make him one of the game’s top red zone threats. I think Cousins and Gruden will continue to exploit his abilities inside the 20. I also think opposing defenses will continue to be unable to do anything about it, particularly now that they've got Doctson to worry about, too. Over