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PropBetPalooza - Cam, Peyton and Lady Gaga


PropBetPalooza - Cam, Peyton and Lady Gaga

People bet on the NFL every week. They bet on the preseason. They bet on the Pro Bowl. For whatever reason, gambling on pro football is oddly shunned for the bulk of the season, but come Super Bowl, America gets on board, especially with the ridiculous amount of prop bets made available.

This year with the Broncos and the Panthers set to square off on Sunday, has provided a bounty of bets that can be made on the big game far beyond just who will win and how many points will be scored. For the normal bettors, the numbers that matter are Panthers -6 and O/U 44.5. Those numbers will likely move a bit before the game kicks off Sunday evening, but by all accounts Carolina is the overwhelming favorite with wagering folks. 

But that stuff is boring. America wants weird stuff to bet, like shoe colors, coin tosses and song. America loves betting on songs. Without further ado:

How long will it take Lady Gaga to sing the US National Anthem?
Over/Under                   2 minutes 20 seconds
Expert lean: Absolutely no lean. None. But take the under.

How many times will "dab" or "dabbing" be said by the announcers during the Broadcast?
Over 2 (EVEN, 1/1)
Under 2 (-140, 5/7)
Expert lean: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms gonna say "dab" three times? I doubt it.

How many times will Cam Newton do the Open Shirt Superman motion during the game?
Over 2.5 (EVEN, 1/1)
Under 2.5 (-140, 5/7)
Expert lean: Go over. Rip it open.

Which song will Coldplay play first during the Halftime show?
Adventure of a Lifetime 2/1
Fix You 7/2
A Sky Full of Stars 9/2
Viva la Vida 5/1
Clocks 15/2
Speed of Sound 9/1
Head Full of Dreams 10/1
Paradise 10/1
Expert lean: No idea, but Clocks is their biggest ever hit right?

What color will Beyonce's footwear be when she comes on stage for the Halftime show?
Black 3/2
Gold/Brown 5/2
White 11/4
Silver/Grey 19/4
Any Other Color 7/1
Expert lean: Again, no idea, but put your mortgage on Gold.

How many million viewers will Super Bowl 50 have?
Over/Under 117 million
Expert lean: Under. Sure it’s the Super Bowl, but this matchup lacks sizzle of some recent games.

What about some actual football props? Sure we can do that:

Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -180 (5/9)
Expert lean: Considering the cost to bet no, the odds on yes look appealing. A close game or a blowout would allow for an onside call.

Will a Roughing the Passer penalty be called in the game?
Yes +110 (11/10)
No -140 (5/7)
Expert lean: Refs tend to take care of Peyton, but this same prop burned me in Denver vs Seattle a few years back.

What will be the Result of the First Coaches Challenge in the Game?
Play Overturned   -130 (10/13)
Play Stands          EVEN (1/1)
Expert lean: Bright lights will mean refs and NFL don’t want mistakes. Play stands costs you less too.

The largest lead of the game by either team will be:
Over/Under 14.5
Expert lean: If you think this game will be a blowout, good spot for your money. I don’t though…

Will there be a Lead Change in the Second Half?
Yes     +120 (6/5)
No      -150 (2/3)
Expert lean: This might be my favorite prop. If the game is going to be close, you love the +$120 here. Even in blowouts, the game is rarely out of hand early in the 3rd quarter.

Who will record the most Receiving Yards in the game?
Demaryius Thomas (DEN)  11/4
Greg Olsen (CAR)               3/1
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)   13/4
Ted Ginn Jr. (CAR)              5/1
Corey Brown (CAR)            13/2
Jerricho Cotchery (CAR)     12/1
Owen Daniels (DEN)          16/1
Devin Funchess (CAR)       16/1
Jordan Norwood (DEN)      50/1
Cody Latimer (DEN)           66/1
Andre Caldwell (DEN)       100/1
Bennie Fowler (DEN)         100/1
Expert lean: Decent value on Manny Sanders, especially knowing Josh Norman will lock up D-Thomas most of this game.

OK fine a few more:

Will there be an earthquake during the game?
Yes 10/1
Expert lean: No. Let’s hope. But the lights did go out in NOLA a few years ago…

How many times will the Golden Gate Bridge be shown during the Broadcast?
Over 0.5 -300 (1/3)
Under 0.5 +200 (2/1)
Expert lean: This game is being played in Santa Clara, probably a 90 minute drive from the Golden Gate. But since this is a “San Francisco Super Bowl” bank on at least one shot.

What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?
Orange 5/4
Blue 3/1
Clear 4/1
Yellow 4/1
Red 6/1
Green 10/1
Purple 10/1
Expert lean: Red. I like red.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first?
God 2/1
Team 2/1
City/Fans 6/1
Coach 15/2
Family 15/1
Does not Mention Anyone above 9/4
Expert lean: God is the safe play, family is strong, but none of the above is a fun option too.

Will Peyton Manning announce his retirement in the postgame interview?
Yes +500 (5/1)
No -1000 (1/10)
Expert lean: Don’t see it.

Will Peyton Manning be seen crying at any point during the entire Broadcast?
Yes +600 (6/1)
No -1200 (1/12)
Expert lean: This I could see.

Last one, but most fun and instant gratification (or misery):

Coin Toss
Heads -105 (20/21)
Tails -105 (20/21)
Expert lean: Tails. Never fails.


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Need to Know: A closer look at Alex Smith's contract with the Redskins

Associated Press

Need to Know: A closer look at Alex Smith's contract with the Redskins

Here is what you need to know on this Saturday, May 26, 17 days before the Washington Redskins start minicamp.  

Note: I am vacationing in the Outer Banks this week. In this space, I’ll be presenting some of the most popular posts of the last few months. I hope you enjoy these “best of” presentations and I’ll see you folks when I get back. 

Contract makes Alex Smith a Redskins for at least three seasons

This post was originally published on March 19. 

When the Redskins traded for Alex Smith on January 30, news also broke that he had agreed to a four-year extension with Washington in addition to the one year left on his contract with the Chiefs. While we got some top-line numbers on the deal, we have gone since then without any details. 

Until now. 

The details show a deal that has a slightly higher cap hit in 2018 than was on his original Chiefs contract and the numbers rise gradually over the life of the deal, which runs through 2022. 

Smith got a $27 million signing bonus and his salaries for 2018 ($13 million) and 2019 ($15 million) also are fully guaranteed at signing making the total $55 million (information via Over the Cap, which got data from a report by Albert Breer). 

But there I another $16 million that is guaranteed for all practical purposes. On the fifth day of the 2019 league year, his 2020 salary of $16 million becomes fully guaranteed. He almost assuredly will get to the point where that money will become guaranteed since the Redskins are not going to cut him after one year having invested $55 million in him. So the total guarantees come to $71 million. 

His 2021 salary is $19 million and it goes up to $21 million in 2022. There have been reports of some incentives available to Smith but since we have no details we’ll set those aside for now. 

The cap hits on the contract are as follows: 

2018: $18.4 million
2019: $20.0 million
2020: $21.4 million
2021: $24.4 million
2022: $26.4 million

The Redskins can realistically move on from Smith after 2020. There would be net cap savings of $13 million in 2021 and $21 million in 2022. 

The first impression of the deal is that the Redskins did not move on from Kirk Cousins because they didn’t want to guarantee a lot of money to a quarterback. The total practical guarantee of $71 million is second only to Cousins’ $82.5 million. It should be noted that Cousins’ deal runs for three years and Smith’s contract is for five. 

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page, follow him on Twitter  @TandlerNBCSand on Instagram @RichTandler

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Early returns show solid Redskins squad, with potential for more


Early returns show solid Redskins squad, with potential for more

More than 100 days remain before the Redskins take the field in meaningful NFL action.

Any and all excitement needs to be tempered, significantly, because what happens on a practice field in May without pads does not represent what will happen in September, October and beyond. 

Still, the Redskins group that took the field this week for OTAs showed promise. 

New quarterback Alex Smith looked crisp, connecting with a variety of wideouts and commanding the huddle. New wideout Paul Richardson made the best play of the session when he streaked down the field past rookie cornerback Greg Stroman and hauled in a deep pass from Smith. The play showed Smith's ability to identify open receivers downfield, as well as Richardson's ability to go up and grab a contested catch. Even Stroman, the seventh-round rookie, positioned himself well, he just fell victim to a perfect pass and tremendous athleticism.

That was only one play in a two-hour session. Again, don't take too much from May, when players don't wear pads or engage in any of the violence that the NFL is predicated upon. But the OTAs do serve a purpose, both for players and coaches, and there were nuggets to absorb and try to project for the fall. Here they are:

  • Jay Gruden made clear he's not concerned about the health of his offensive line. Trent Williams and Morgan Moses are recuperating from offseason surgery, but Gruden believes both are on track for when things start to matter. It's a good thing the coach isn't concerned because this was the 'Skins line in OTAs (left to right): Geron Christian, Shawn Lauvao, Chase Roullier, Brandon Scherff, John Kling. Should that lineup take the field this fall, there will be trouble. 
  • The Redskins lost Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland this offseason, and the secondary depth will be something to watch throughout training camp. At OTAs, newly signed veteran cornerback Orlando Scandrick lined up opposite Josh Norman in the team's base 3-4 defense. In nickel and dime coverage, Quinton Dunbar lined up opposite Norman and Scandrick moved to the slot. As things progress, it will be interesting to see if Dunbar surpasses Scandrick in base coverage, and what becomes of 2017 third-round pick Fabian Moreau. Stay tuned.  
  • Rookie running back Derrius Guice looked every part of the first-round talent many judged him to be before draft season rumors caused him to slide to the late second round. Guice cuts with authority and is able to see holes before they form and patiently wait to hit the open space. Guice also looked fine in pass-catching drills, one area that was a question coming out of LSU (but that says more about LSU's prehistoric offense). Watching the Redskins offense work, it seems clear Guice will be the heaviest used runner this fall.
  • That said, don't count out Robert Kelley. He looks leaner and plenty quick, showing a few impressive runs during the session. Byron Marshall also looked good, and Gruden pointed out his success in his post-OTA press conference. The running back group will have plenty of competition all the way through Richmond. 
  • Jonathan Allen has switched jersey numbers from 95 to 93. Rookie Daron Payne is now wearing 95. Payne and Allen both went to Alabama, both are huge, and both play defensive line. The number switch will take some getting used to. 
  • Zach Brown missed the OTA session as he was moving, and interestingly in his spot with the starting defense was Josh Harvey-Clemons. The second-year pro out of Louisville showed impressive speed in coverage, and remember he played safety in college and performed quite well. He has ball skills and great size to be a coverage linebacker. Some were surprised when the Redskins kept JHC last season at the cut to 53, but his development appears to be paying off for the organization. 
  • Another linebacker that made a play was Zach Vigil. He impressed for the Redskins late last season and was running the Washington second-team defensive huddle. At one point, Vigil broke through the line of scrimmage and blew up a run play. That prompted D.J. Swearinger to yell from the sideline, "OK Zach. OK ZACH!"
  • Speaking of Swearinger, the Redskins defensive captain seemed in midseason form when it comes to yelling encouragement on the field. Nobody hypes up the defense like Swearinger, particularly when the secondary makes a big play. On one pass Dunbar made a nice diving play to break up a pass, and Swearinger and Josh Norman got very fired up, shouting and jumping around. The entire defense responded. Little stuff like that helps disrupt the monotony of offseason work. 
  • Jamison Crowder looks jacked and quick. The end. 





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