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Redskins vs. Cowboys: Five observations in Washington's Thanksgiving loss

Redskins vs. Cowboys: Five observations in Washington's Thanksgiving loss

DALLAS--My five observations on Cowboys 31, Redskins 26:

—If the Redskins either miss the postseason or if they are one and done due to a bad seed they can point to their lack of red zone productivity as a main reason. They were four of five scoring touchdowns here last week but just two for five today and the second came in desperation time. That will keep them near the bottom of the league in red zone efficiency. Both of their losses to the Cowboys came after failing to get it done down close.

—Earlier in his career Jordan Reed had something of a reputation for being “soft”, for not playing through injuries that others would have toughed out. That word should never be associated with him after this game. He went out in the first half with a shoulder sprain. His return looked very questionable for a while but he returned in the second half. At first it looked like he might just serve as a decoy but then Kirk Cousins started throwing the ball to him. After catching just two passes for 15 yards in the first half, Reed finished with 10 catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns. He was in considerable pain after the game and his situation will bear watching. But it was a big-time guts performance on his part.

—Rob Kelley was due for a subpar game and he had it today. He had just 37 yards on 14 carries with a long run of eight yards. Jay Gruden said that Kelley did not have tired legs but a rookie who didn’t get many carries in college had to have been feeling the effects of two games in four days. It will be a big game for him in Arizona. Two games in a row like that would have to coaches looking to make changes.

—The defense played about as well as expected against the powerful and efficient Dallas offense, which is to say not too well. Ezekiel Elliott did run wild but his 97 rushing yards on 20 carries were enough to keep the chains moving. Dak Prescott threw for 195 yards and a touchdown and he didn’t even come close to an interception except on one tipped ball. To be fair, the defense twice had to deal with short fields, once after a failed surprise onside kick attempt and once after a long field goal miss by Dustin Hopkins. Dallas drove for touchdowns both times. But, as Donte Whitner pointed out, the defense had a chance to give the team a boost by forcing three and outs and didn’t get it done.

—Kirk Cousins threw for 449 yards and three touchdowns. But the red zone issue fall at least partially into his lap. Sometimes it seems like he is still spooked by the red zone interception he threw against Dallas in Week 2. Like so many other elements of the team, he is on the verge of being very good but with too many holes to quite get there.

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Jay Gruden shown no love in preseason coaches ranking

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USA Today Sports

Jay Gruden shown no love in preseason coaches ranking

Yahoo! Sports ranked all 32 head coaches in the NFL and Washington Redskins fans may not be too happy with where Jay Gruden ended up.

Entering his fifth year as head coach, Gruden was ranked as the No. 27 head coach in the NFL. Here's Yahoo!'s rationale behind his ranking:

"Four years, one playoff berth, one plus-.500 season, one franchise quarterback run out of town."

All that is ... not false, but the whole franchise quarterback being run out of town thing is at least debatable. And even if the ranking is fair, it's still okay to be upset because it's the middle of July, training camp hasn't started yet and the offseason is the perfect time to get irrationally angry about things like these.

Elsewhere in the NFC, Giants head coach Pat Shurmur checks in at No. 23, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is No. 17 and the Eagles' Doug Pederson is No. 2.

Unsurprisingly, Bill Belichick was ranked No. 1; he may be the greatest of all time when all is said and done, if not already. The top five rounds out with Pederson at No. 2, New Orleans's Sean Payton at No. 3, Minnesota's Mike Zimmer at No. 4 and Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin at No. 5.

MORE REDSKINS NEWS:

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10 Questions in 10 Days: What can the Redskins expect from Derrius Guice?

10 Questions in 10 Days: What can the Redskins expect from Derrius Guice?

With Redskins Training Camp set to begin July 26th, JP Finlay takes a look at 10 of the most pressing questions for the Burgundy and Gold before the team heads to Richmond. 

No. 10: Major questions at linebacker on Redskins depth chart 

No. 9: What is Kevin O’Connell's new role in Redskins offense?

No. 8: More investments on D-Line, but who goes where?

No. 7: Do the Redskins have a 1,000-yard WR?

No. 6: Is Shawn Lauvao the concern, or is the issue bigger on the O-Line?

No. 5: What can the Redskins expect from Derrius Guice?

No rookie draft pick excited the Redskins fan base like Derrius Guice since Robert Griffin III came to Washington back in 2012. That's a fact. 

Guice slipped during the draft to near the end of the second round, a position much too late for a player with his talent. Rumors emerged that he had character issues, but in the months since April's selection, they seem unfounded. In quick time, Guice has emerged as a Redskins fan favorite and has performed plenty of charitable acts.

So, moving past the erroneous off-field questions, it's time to manage expectations for what Guice can do on the field. 

DJ Swearinger recently said he expects Guice to make the Pro Bowl and rush for more than 1,000 yards. As a rookie. (Listen here)

That's not unheard of, last year rookie Kareem Hunt led the NFL in rush yards. In 2016, Ezekiel Elliott did the same thing. Rookie running backs can step in and produce right away in the NFL, unlike some positions that usually bring more of a learning curve. 

Can Guice do that?

The first and most important questions will be health and durability. Guice dealt with lingering knee injuries last year at LSU, and the Redskins will need him fully healthy. A 1,000-yard season is not unrealistic if Guice plays a full 16-game season. It would require rushing for about 65 yards-per-game. 

The bigger key is opportunities. 

How many carries will Guice log in 2018? Early on in the season, Guice might still be learning pass protection in the Redskins scheme, and Jay Gruden will not tolerate missed assignments that result in big hits on QB Alex Smith.

If Guice can lock in on blitz pickup, 200 carries seems reasonable. Remember that Chris Thompson will still be a featured part of the Redskins offense, and Rob Kelley will get chances too. 

Last season, Samaje Perine led all rushers with 175 carries. He didn't do much with the chances, averaging just 3.4 yards-per-carry. Kelley had 62 carries before injuries shut his season down after parts of seven games. 

Combine Perine and Kelley's carries, and then things start to get interesting. With 230 carries, at an average of 4 yards a pop, Guice starts to approach 1,000 yards.

One problem with extrapolating too much data from last season is the crazy amount of variables. Late in the year, with Perine largely ineffective and a very beat up offensive line, the Redskins simply couldn't produce on the ground. In their last five games of 2017, the Redskins never rushed for more than 100 yards. They averaged just 60 yards-per-game on the ground during that stretch, including a season low 31 rush yards against Arizona in December. 

The line can't be that beat up again, right?

Guice has to be able to deliver more than Perine, right?

If the answers to those questions are yes, then a 1,000-yard season seems possible for Guice in 2018. 

One misnomer from the Redskins 2017 campaign emerged that Washington simply did not run the ball well or enough. In fact, early in the year when the Redskins looked like a possible playoff team, they ran the ball quite well. In three of the first four games, Washington went over 100 yards on the ground, including 229 rush yards in a Week 2 win over the Rams. 

Guice might get to 1,000 yards in 2018. It's no sure thing, and there are plenty of variables, but it's possible. That hasn't happened in Washington since Alfred Morris, and would be a very welcome sight. 

The rookie runner has invigorated the Redskins faithful, and that's before he even steps on the field. If Guice can produce, the fans will go crazy.

MORE REDSKINS NEWS:

— Contract years: Redskins face 5 tough decisions 

— Dead Money: Trades, misses and mistakes hurt Redskins salary cap

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