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Should the 2016 Redskins go for two after TD's more often?

Should the 2016 Redskins go for two after TD's more often?

The Steelers, who are the Redskins’ Week 1 opponent, went for two points after touchdowns more often than any other NFL team last year. Ben Roethlisberger wants his team to be even more aggressive this year.

Will the Redskins have to follow suit, at least in their season opener?

Last year the Steelers went for two points after touchdowns 11 times, the most in the league. They were successful on eight of those attempts, a success rate of 72.7 percent.

Roethlisberger thinks that the Steelers should leave their kicker on the sideline after every touchdown.

“I think we should go for it every time,” he said earlier this week. “Why not?”

The simple numbers indicate that the two-point conversion is the better play if you’re as good at the two-pointer as the Steelers were last year. With the line of scrimmage for the kicked PAT now moved back to the 15-yard line, the one-point conversion rate dropped to 94.7 percent, the lowest the league has seen since 1979.

If a team scores 50 touchdowns and converts kicked PATs at the league average they will get 47 points from conversions. If that team is successful on two-pointers at even a 60 percent rate they will get 60 points from conversions. That’s like scoring two extra touchdowns over the course of the season. If those points are well placed they could equal an extra win, maybe two if they play in a lot of close games.

Of course, going for two is not Roethlisberger’s call. Head coach Mike Tomlin makes that decision. Tomlin already showed that he is willing to defy the orthodox thinking and be more aggressive by going for two 11 times last year. Even if Tomlin doesn’t go for two after every TD this year it would not be surprising to see him try for two more often than he did last year.

This brings up the question that Jay Gruden will have to answer. Can the Redskins afford to settle for seven points per touchdown in their opener if Pittsburg is getting eight points on three out of every four touchdowns?

The Redskins had a pretty good percentage on two-point tries themselves, hitting at a 66.7 percent rate. But it was just on a tiny sample size; they were successful on two out of three.

How did the Redskins fare in comparable situations? A two-point conversion try is essentially a fourth and goal play from the two. The Redskins had one such play last year and it failed. That’s an extremely small sample size.

Although it’s not the same situation, let’s look at how they did on third or fourth down with two yards to go. They had 21 such plays last year and they got at least two yards 12 times, a 57.1 percent success rate. It’s not a perfect comparison to two-point conversions, when you’re working in a very compressed area right there at the doorstep of the end zone, but if they can come close to that on two-point conversions it would make more sense to go for two than it would be to kick.

Another reason the Redskins may want to go for two more often is the fact that they have some very enticing red zone targets. Players like Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Josh Doctson, and Pierre Garçon can make the tough one-on-one plays needed to convert those two pointers.

Even though the numbers might recommend a more aggressive approach, it would be surprising if Gruden went for two more often than the score and “the book” dictate that he should. But he should have a good supply of two-point plays ready to go in Week 1 in case Tomlin and the Steelers throw out the book and do what Big Ben wants them to do.

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The best players on the Redskins according to their Madden 19 ratings

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USA Today Sports

The best players on the Redskins according to their Madden 19 ratings

Madden 19 won't be released to the public until August 10, but the player ratings for the top players on each NFL team have been released.

The video reaches the Redskins a little after four minutes in. The top nine players on the Redskins, according to their Madden 19 overall ratings are as follows:

  1. LT Trent Williams, 91
  2. RG Brandon Scherff, 88
  3. FS D.J. Swearinger, 86
  4. MLB Zach Brown, 85
  5. CB Josh Norman, 84
  6. RB Chris Thompson, 83
  7. WR Paul Richardson, 83
  8. QB Alex Smith, 81
  9. WR Jamison Crowder, 81

The list has Washington's two best linemen up top followed by its best skill position players and Zach Brown. Beyond Williams and Sherff, there's some debate to be had. Both Richardson and Crowder can make a serious case to be the team's best receiver. Crowder had 22 more receptions and 86 more yards than Richardson in 2017, but Richardson had six touchdowns to Crowder's three.

Smith is coming off arguably the best season of his career with Kansas City. He put up over 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, posted career bests in quarterback rating, touchdown passes, interception percentage and completions. His rating as the fifth-best offensive player behind two other skill position players seems off.

These rankings will change throughout the season as more updates become available, but this is what there is to work with right now.

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Redskins schedule preview: Week 15 vs. Jaguars

Redskins schedule preview: Week 15 vs. Jaguars

We’re previewing every game of the 2018 season with a look forward and a look back. Up today, it’s the game against the Jaguars. 

Week 15 December 16, TIAA Bank Field

2017 Jaguars: 10-6, First in AFC South, lost AFC championship game 

Projected 2018 wins per Westgate SuperBook: 9

Early line: Redskins +8

Key additions: G Andrew Norwell, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, WR Donte Moncrief, 

Key losses:WR Allen Hurns, WR Allen Robinson

Biggest questions: 

  • QB Blake Bortles was very inconsistent during the season and there was talk of the team looking for a replacement for him prior to their run in the playoffs. Does he have what it takes to get the team back into serious contention. 
  • The team also got an inconsistent season out of RB Leonard Fournette, the No. 4 pick in the draft. Can he put together the monster season that would justify his draft status and help elevate the Jaguars to elite status. 
  • The Jaguars went from 25thin scoring defense in 2016 to second last year. Will they fall back to the pack this year?

Series history

The Redskins lead the all-time series 5-1. The Jaguars only win against them came in 2002.

Series notables

The first time: September 28, 1997, Jack Kent Cooke Stadium—In the second game ever played at the Redskins’ new stadium, Jacksonville took a 9-0 lead in the second quarter, but then-Jags QB Mark Brunell threw a pair of interceptions that set up two Washington touchdowns and the Redskins won 24-12. Gus Frerotte threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns and Terry Allen gained 122 yards on 36 carries. 

The last time: November 14, 2012, FedEx Field—Jay Gruden got his first win as the Redskins’ head coach in this one. Robert Griffin III went out of this game early with an injury and Kirk Cousins passed for 250 yards and two touchdowns in his place. It was the defense that dominated this game, racking up 10 sacks, tying the team record set in 1977. Ryan Kerrigan got four of those sacks, tying the team individual record for sacks in a game. The Redskins won 41-10.

The best time: October 1, 2006, FedEx Field—A taught, exciting game came to an explosive end when Santana Moss snared a pass that Mark Brunell perhaps should not have thrown and streaked to the end zone, giving the Redskins a 36-30 overtime win over Jacksonville.

The reason the throw was risky was that two defenders were near Moss as Brunell fired it to the speedy receiver. Somehow both of them missed it. Moss grabbed it, spun around and bolted the rest of the way to complete the 68-yard game winner.

It was Moss’ third touchdown reception of the day. In the first quarter, he caught a long pass from Brunell and executed a nifty spin move near the goal line to complete the 55-yard touchdown play. An eight-yard Moss TD catch early in the third quarter put the Redskins up by 10 but the Jags battled back to tie it with six seconds left. That set up Moss’ overtime heroics. 

The worst time: November 10, 2002, Alltel Stadium—The Redskins came into the game riding a two-game winning streak and at 4-4 they were squarely in playoff contention. A strong running game had been their best asset during their surge to .500 and, with the Jaguars sporting the worst run defense in the NFL, there was every reason to believe that the Redskins would take the land route to another win.

But coach Steve Spurrier had different ideas. "I was dumb enough to think we could throw it up and down the field," Spurrier said. "We ran a little bit here and there. We had a little success there early, and I got away from it too much. The second quarter, I kept thinking at midfield, we could throw the ball from there. But we didn't do it very well. So, looking back, I called a lousy game."

His defense didn’t play very well either. The Redskins scored first but the Jaguars scored 26 unanswered points and came out with a 26-7 win.

Redskins schedule series

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page, Facebook.com/TandlerNBCS  and follow him on Twitter  @TandlerNBCS  and on Instagram @RichTandler