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NBA Draft Lottery: Playing the 'what if' game

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NBA Draft Lottery: Playing the 'what if' game

Here. We. Go.Tonight, sometime after 8:00 p.m., the NBA Draft lottery gods - or for the truly cynical, commissioner David Stern - reveal the Wizards initial selection in the 2012 draft. So far, we know the following: The Wizards have the second best overall odds - 19.9 percent - to land the overall No. 1 pick. The Wizards can pick no worse than fifth overall. The Wizards have a 55.74 percent chance of landing one of the first three picks. There is99.99 percent chance the Wizards miss out on Kentucky shot blocker Anthony Davis if they do land the first pick in the draft. This number is unofficial, but highly logical.
Which teamgets the springy unibrowed wonderwillbethe main story coming out of tonight's festivities. The "winning" team may decide a trade is in their best interest, but regardless it would be stunning if Davis was not the first name chosen on June 28, night of the NBA Draft.Only the Bobcats have better better odds at landing the first selection than the Wizards, followed by the Cavaliers, Hornets, Kings and Nets. For the entire lottery odds breakdown, click here.Beyond Davis, there appears be a group of four prospects in the mix for picks 2-5: Floridaoff-guard Bradley Beal, Connecticut center Andre Drummond, Kentucky small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Kansas power forward Thomas Robinson. If you want to talk odds, the newest Wizard likely comes from this quartet.From the time the order is revealed until the picks are made, said order could change many times over - at least the rumor mill will have us believing that over the next month. For now, here's a down and dirty look at what happens should certain teams jump ahead of the Wizards.If you want Beal, then you don't want to see: the Cavaliers, whodrafted Kyrie Irving with the overall No.1 pick last season,receiving another dose of good fortune(apparently as an homage to lady luck, the Cavs are once again sending Owner Dan Gilbert's son to be the team's on-stage representative.As a nod to that winning formula, the Wizards are sending Zach Leonsis, son of team owner Ted). Like the local team, Cleveland's primary weakness is its perimeter attack and pairing Beal with the reigning Rookie of the Year would make for some scary upside combo. Could see the Nets going small if they believe Deron Williams stays and their chances of landing Dwight Howard are at least reasonable.The Hornets will pass on Beal assuming they intend on retaining restricted free agent Eric Gordon. As it stands, this is my preferenced pick for the Wizards, though they might be able to land backcourt help with their two second-round picks.If you want Drummond,then you don't want to see: The logical argument that the Wizards should not take the incredibly raw center. Kidding, kidding, though with Nene and Kevin Seraphin inside and their needs outside, not really. As it stands, seems like the UConn freshman falls to four or five. Then again, it just takes one team to fall in love and apparently Drummond has been doing the getting in shape thing. Maybe the Hornets decide to bring the big man to the Big Easy since current center Chris Kaman is an unrestricted free agent. Should the Wizards fall to five, could be an interesting debate between taking Drummond orone of the remaining perimeter options like North Carolina's Harrison Barnes or Drummond's Connecticut teammate Jeremy Lamb.If you want Kidd-Gilchrist, then you don't want to see: Just about anyone ahead of the Wizards. Charlotte's current small forward options are rather pedestrian. Sacramento could part ways with the out-of-position Tyreke Evans this summer. Clevelandcould use aSF upgrade, though pairing MKG with Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson makes for a non-shooting frontcourt. New Orleans could use a healthy dose of aggressiveness, which Kidd-Gilchrist offers most of all. For the Wizards, my fear is that his lack of outside touch does not address their current need and his skills are in a general sense similar to Chris Singleton. That's not the same as saying they should pass onthe tough-minded winner. Thatis what doing your homework is all about.If you want Robinson, then you don't want to see: Hornets owner Tom Benson boogying on Bourbon Street. Okay, you might never want to see that, but in this case it could mean New Orleans solidifies its frontcourt with the chiseled rebounder. With two lottery picks (second one courtesy of the Timberwolves), the Hornets could target a big man early then look for a needed point guard later in the lottery. The Kings might crown Robinson with the second or third pick if given a chance.Unless the Nets move into the top 3, their selection goes to the Trail Blazers as part of last season's Gerald Wallace trade.Ben Standig blogs about the Redskins, Wizards, Hoyas and the D.C.area college basketball scene for CSNwashington. You can reach him by email at bstandig@comcast.net, follow him on Twitter @BenStandig and catch his musings at the D.C. Sportalist.

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Hey Wizards - don't fall for this CJ McCollum crossover

Hey Wizards - don't fall for this CJ McCollum crossover

Here's an important thing for the Wizards to avoid when facing off against Portland on Monday night: This CJ McCollum crossover.

As seen in this video by our friends at NBC Sports Northwest, the Trail Blazers' player sent a Spurs defender flying - much to the delight of the Portland bench - with the move.

 

"It wasn't even one of my better crossovers," he said after his team's win. "Honestly, he just reacted."

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By the numbers: Bradley Beal on pace to become one of NBA history's best three-point shooters

By the numbers: Bradley Beal on pace to become one of NBA history's best three-point shooters

Bradley Beal topped Gilbert Arenas for first place in career three-pointers in Wizards/Bullets franchise history on Saturday night in the Wizards' loss to the Toronto Raptors.

Beal, only 25, has put himself in some good company over the years with his outside shooting. Here are some numbers to put it all in perspective.

By The Numbers: Bradley Beal's historic shooting numbers

2,208: Beal made his record-breaking, 869th three on his 2,208th attempt. It took Arenas 2,430 attempts to get there in a Wizards uniform. Arenas, however, reached the mark in 357 games compared to Beal's 408. Beal, now at 2,209, is second on the franchise list for career three-pointers attempted. Based on his career attempts averages, he should get there this season.

100: Beal has made at least 100 three-pointers in five straight seasons entering 2018-19. That is a franchise record. The longest such active streak is held by Jamal Crawford at 14. The longest streak in NBA history is held by Ray Allen at 17.

39.4: Beal's career three-point percentage. He is one of only five players ever to shoot at least 39 percent from beyond the arc while making two or more threes per game in their careers. The others are Kyle Korver, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Buddy Hield, who has only played in 164 games compared to Beal's 408.

223: Beal set the franchise record for three-pointers made in a single season back in 2016-17. He passed Arenas, who twice got to 205, in 2004-05 and 2006-07.

41: Beal also passed Arenas for the most games in franchise history with five or more three-pointers made. Arenas is in second with 40, while Trevor Ariza is in a distant third with 15. Otto Porter Jr., for comparison, has done it nine times. Beal's 41 games with five threes or more rank 18th among active players. Curry is way ahead of everyone else with 183.

37: Beal is one of just eight players ever to begin his career with six straight seasons of 37 percent or better from three. The other seven is mostly a who's who of three-point specialists like Curry, Thompson, Korver and J.J. Redick.

20: Shooting 37 percent or better from three while also scoring 20 points or more is rarer than you may think. Beal has done it twice in his career, same as LeBron James, Damian Lillard and Kawhi Leonard. Only 11 players have accomplished the feat more often. Dirk Nowitzki has done that in nine seasons, most all-time, while Kevin Durant is second with eight.

872: Speaking of Durant, this isn't a historic number, it's just an interesting coincidence. Since Beal entered the league before the 2012-13 season, he and Durant have been nearly identical as three-point shooters. Beal has made 870 threes, while Durant has knocked down 872. Beal has shot 39.4 percent, while Durant has hit 39.6 of them. Another guy who has been extremely similar to Beal is Danny Green, who now plays for the Raptors. He has hit 858 threes during that span at a 39.2 percent rate.

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