John Wall did the math. He's not making Team USA's squad for the 2016 Rio Olympics.
Wall wants in, no doubt. The two-time NBA All-Star will have the 2015-16 season to impress. However, having just left USA Basketball's minicamp in Las Vegas, the Washington Wizards star grasps the red, white and blue numbers game. At this point, Wall is directly competing with fellow point guards Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook and Mike Conley Jr. Heavy hitters indeed.
If history is a guide, three point guards will be part of the 12-man roster. Barring the unforeseen, two of those spots are locked up. Paul was a member of the 2012 Olympic gold medal squad. Curry helped the US triumph at the 2014 World Cup and then led the Golden State Warriors to the NBA championship.
"Oh, yeah. Ten times out of 10 they’ll be on the team," Wall said when presented with the premise during a discussion Saturday. He spoke with CSNwashington.com at his charitable foundation's back to school event for local kids in Washington.
Before the three PG factoid could be fully stated to Wall, he blurted out a name.
Irving also played on the 2014 team, not to mention at Duke for Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski. He's also currently a teammate in Cleveland with king maker LeBron James, who is another 2016 lock if wants in.
“I’ll be out of the picture," said Wall through a laugh and without any noticeable trace of resentment.
That wasn't the case a year ago in the exact same Washington Boys and Girls club. Back then, Wall oozed frustration when discussing having been cut from the 2014 World Cup.
Perhaps this latest response represents maturity, the kind he's showing in organizing a minicamp for the Wizards. Perhaps the 24-year-old is just keeping it real.
"I’m just being honest," Wall continued. "Chris Paul has already won one (Olympic gold medal). Steph Curry had an amazing last year and just won the World Cup. Kyrie just won the World Cup. Russell will probably be on the team. They’ll use him as a two-guard.
"So, I probably won’t make it."
Other than Paul, Wall is the best pass-first guard in the bunch. That’s a desired element. Same goes for his defensive prowess. For international basketball, so is 3-point shooting. In that area, Wall lags far behind Paul, Curry and Irving.
Certainly plenty could change over the next 10-11 months, specifically injuries. In that sense, don't pen in the Olympic point guards just yet. But there is one expected change from previous years that could limit the opportunity for Wall and others.
"I think they might not have a minicamp next year. They might just pick a team," Wall said. He added, "I thought I’d be in the mini-camp fighting for (a roster spot)."
News of this scenario popped after players arrived in Las Vegas for what was considered a mandatory meeting if interested in the 2016 games. Derrick Rose and Damian Lillard, two other point guards worthy of consideration, passed.
"That’s why a lot of people went, to make sure they get invited to the mini-camp," Wall continued. "That will be the tough part. If you don’t have mini-camp, you have to play well during the season."
Even if the no minicamp, no invitation scouting report proves accurate, Wall won't have regrets about showing up in Las Vegas this summer.
"I think it was a good look anyway," he said of participating with Team USA. "Great group of guys over there. (USA Basketball director) Jerry Colangelo, Coach K. ...All those guys are great people."
As for the expected mini-camp change, which doesn't occur without Colangelo's approval, Wall said, "He’s the boss. He’s going to make whatever rules he wants. Just like (NBA Commissioner) Adam Silver is going to do whatever he please. I appreciate everything they do. It’s a good opportunity to represent you country. I would definitely be excited if I got to put a USA jersey on if I get the opportunity."
He's just not going to hold his breath waiting for the call. Besides, Wall has other business before then.
"It’s tough, but I’ve been overlooked my whole career. I’m used to it. Just more motivation and fuel to my fire," Wall said. "Going into this year, (USA Basketball) is an opportunity, but my main goal is focusing on the Washington Wizards."
If Wall and the Wizards hit the NBA jackpot this season, perhaps USA Basketball recalculates the roster. Just don't bet on it.